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April 24, 2023
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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Monday morning. Both the House and Senate come back into session tomorrow.
This is the most important week for Speaker Kevin McCarthy since he won the grueling floor fight in January to get the gavel.
The House is set to vote this week on a $4.5 trillion GOP bill — the Limit, Save, Grow Act — that raises the debt limit into 2024 while slashing federal spending by tens of billions of dollars. In addition, we expect to hear from the Treasury Department on when the United States government could default on its $31.4 trillion debt.
To show how important this legislation is to McCathy, he personally called Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, when it was rumored that the group might score the bill as a tax increase.
Here are some other highlights:
No. 1: The House GOP whip operation worked throughout the weekend to shore up support for the package. As of late Sunday night, party leaders felt as if undecided Republicans were breaking their way.
The House Freedom Caucus is pushing their leadership to have new work requirements for social safety net programs under this legislation kick in during FY 2024 instead of FY 2025. Conservatives also want to increase the hours covered recipients must work from 20 to 30 per week. The leadership feels as if both of these asks are implausible..
No. 2: Democrats have no idea what McCarthy is up to. They don’t have much insight into him or how the House GOP leadership operates at this point. But the mystery is overrated. McCarthy simply wants to get to the negotiating table with President Joe Biden and top Democrats. To do that, it’s imperative that House Republicans pass this bill. Otherwise, the House could be forced to move a clean debt limit increase this summer. That’s exactly what Biden wants, but it would be devastating for McCarthy.
At the end of the day, McCarthy wants three things in a final bill: spending reductions, permitting reform and some work requirements for social programs.
No. 3: House Republicans have become concerned about eliminating some tax provisions and whether outside groups would score that as a tax increase. The House Republican package got rid of a slew of tax credits that originated in the Inflation Reduction Act.
As we noted above, McCarthy and the GOP leadership were particularly concerned that Americans for Tax Reform would be opposed to repealing the tax credits. However, the group sent this statement over Sunday afternoon: “ATR supports the repeal of all green new deal tax credits in Biden’s IRA. And always has.”
No. 4: We also told you on Friday about a group of Midwestern Republicans who were concerned about the proposal eliminating ethanol credits. Right now, GOP leadership insiders believe that there won’t be a serious problem with these members.
First, all House Republicans voted against the IRA last year, which means these members already voted against the provisions. And secondly, no one expects this to be in any final bipartisan deal with the White House and Senate Democrats. We dug deep into this in the Friday Midday edition. Midwesterners’ reaction will be a big storyline this week.
No. 5: The House Rules Committee is scheduled to mark up the bill starting Tuesday at 4 p.m. This means the legislation could be on the floor as early as Wednesday. Yes, the House is scheduled to be in session until Friday. But don’t expect McCarthy and the leadership to mess around here. If they have 218 votes locked down, House GOP leaders will go to the floor and vote.
New from Wrightson ICAP: We’ve written before that one of the outlets that Washington watches for debt limit projections is Wrightson ICAP. Here’s what they said Sunday night:
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
The week ahead in congressional oversight
Here’s what’s on the agenda for House Republican investigators this week.
Afghanistan: We have some news on this front. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) has decided to push the subpoena deadline for Secretary of State Antony Blinken back to May 1. This is the second time McCaul has postponed the deadline for Blinken to hand over to Congress an internal dissent cable written by officials in the Kabul Embassy criticizing the U.S. decision to withdraw from Afghanistan in 2021.
The big update last week was Blinken’s failure to comply with the previously-set April 19 deadline. McCaul had offered to look at the dissent cable with the names of the signatories redacted. This was an effort to accommodate State’s concerns, but it didn’t lead to any further compliance.
In the meantime, the State Department offered to hold a classified, bipartisan briefing for the Foreign Affairs Committee this week on the concerns raised by Kabul Embassy staff ahead of the pullout.
The panel has asked for that briefing to be held on April 27, a committee spokesperson told us. State hasn’t replied yet, we’re told.
McCaul has been adamant that this briefing doesn’t satisfy the subpoena. But the Texas Republican has said he’ll consider the contents of the briefing and summary before determining whether to proceed with enforcing the subpoena.
Alvin Bragg: Last week brought plenty of key updates in the legal fight between House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg. The two sides reached an agreement on Friday that paves the way for Mark Pomerantz, the former special prosecutor in the NYC investigation of Donald Trump, to provide testimony to panel investigators next month.
Pomerantz is now scheduled to be deposed on May 12. Pomerantz will be allowed to have his lawyer and the Manhattan DA’s general counsel present at the interview.
Comer’s Biden family investigation: House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) announced last week that the panel is investigating six more members of President Joe Biden’s family. We still don’t know who these individuals are and what precisely they are being investigated for, other than the broad charge of “influence peddling.”
Comer told Fox and Friends on April 11 he was “probably going to have a press conference within the next two weeks to update the American people” on the Biden family investigation. So stay tuned to see if the Kentucky Republican shares more information this week.
— Max Cohen
🗓️
What we’re watching
Tuesday: The Senate Appropriations Committee will hold a hearing examining the U.S. Capitol Police’s budget.
Wednesday: House Appropriations will have a hearing on the FAA’s budget with Acting Administrator Billy Nolen. House Judiciary will have an oversight hearing on the ATF. Director Steven Dettelbach will testify in a session that’s going to be very heavy on gun policy.
Senate Homeland Security will have a hearing on the lessons learned from the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. Former Boston Police Commissioner Edward Davis is among the witnesses.
The Senate HELP Committee will vote on Julie Su’s nomination to be Labor secretary. Su should clear the committee easily, but Democrats face potential problems on the floor. Senate Judiciary will have a hearing on reproductive rights post Dobbs. Senate Foreign Relations will have a hearing on USAID’s budget with Administrator Samantha Power.
AFT President Randi Weingarten will testify on school closures before the House Oversight Committee.
Thursday: House Judiciary will hold a hearing on FISA with DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz. House Ways and Means will have a hearing with newly confirmed IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel.
– Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY INSTAGRAM
DISASTER RELIEF
California Dems lead charge for disaster recovery package
New: California Democratic Reps. Salud Carbajal, Jimmy Panetta, Zoe Lofgren and Jim Costa are calling on House leaders to pass a disaster recovery package to help agricultural communities hit hard by recent flooding back home.
“It is imperative Congress provide much-needed aid to California’s agricultural community to allow for a full and timely recovery,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter to Speaker Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, House Appropriations Committee Chair Kay Granger (R-Texas) and Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the ranking member.
The optics here are interesting. McCarthy, of course, hails from a California district with a significant agricultural presence. And there was some serious flooding in the region. It’ll be interesting to track how the speaker’s office responds to the request.
From late December 2022 through mid-January 2023, the state was pummeled with torrential rain that led to widespread flooding. Snow melt could lead to additional problems.
“The historic storms caused tremendous damage to thousands of acres of farms and ranches,” the lawmakers wrote.
Read the letter here.
— Max Cohen
… AND THERE’S MORE
| → | Rich Feuer Anderson has hired Justin Sok as a principal at the firm to launch a practice focused on tax policy. He’s currently a managing director of tax policy at SIFMA. Sok previously worked as a senior adviser and legislative director for Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), current chair of the Ways and Means Committee. |
| → | We have House campaign ads, folks. Mauro Garza, who is planning a run against Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), is up with a pretty standard issue GOP ad about the border. The spot is running in Harlingen-Weslaco-Brownsville-McAllen, Texas. |
– Brendan Pedersen and Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY INSTAGRAM
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