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LEADER LOOK

Our first quarter assessments of the leadership

The first quarter of the year is now over – time flies when you’re Congress’ing, huh? And Congress is out of town, so we wanted to spend some time examining the four party leaders on the Hill, the key figures in our coverage.

Let’s start with Speaker Kevin McCarthy: McCarthy has finished the first quarter of 2023 still standing, which wasn’t totally certain considering the ordeal it took in January for him to get there. Take note: Not one motion to vacate has been filed yet. That stands to reason because McCarthy has given conservatives nearly everything they’ve asked for up to this point.

McCarthy’s record is mixed so far. House Republicans can’t pass an FY2024 budget resolution on their own, a lapse that has weakened McCarthy going into an all-important showdown with President Joe Biden over the debt limit and federal spending. House GOP leaders have also delayed immigration and border bills and were forced to pump the brakes on a crime package.

But McCarthy has gotten some wins too. House Republicans pushed through a measure disapproving the District of Columbia’s efforts to revise its criminal code, forcing Democrats into a tough vote along the way. Even Biden backed the GOP resolution, which angered House Democrats who anticipated a presidential veto. House Republicans also repealed a rule that would allow investment managers to consider ESG goals in their investment strategy. Biden vetoed it, but again, Democrats had to vote yes.

McCarthy has raised piles of money for the GOP as well, something he takes pleasure in.

McCarthy has given free rein to his committee chairs – especially Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and James Comer (R-Ky.) – to investigate whatever they want, including Biden’s family. So far, they’ve generated more press releases than evidence of wrongdoing, but it’s early yet.

The second quarter of this year will be incredibly important for the Bakersfield native. A potential default over the $31.4 trillion national debt looms this summer; McCarthy world thinks June. McCarthy is trying to look uber reasonable on raising the debt limit, but at this point, he can’t even get Biden to meet with him, and he’s practically begging for that.

McCarthy has his conference behind him now. The longer Biden snubs him, the more House Republicans will support the speaker. But the overarching question remains — How does McCarthy get a debt-limit deal that Biden will agree to and the House GOP will support?

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries: The New York Democrat is doing exactly what the House opposition leader should be doing: playing defense, raising a ton of money and keeping his members focused on winning in 2024.

And while former Speaker Nancy Pelosi still remains in the House, the two have been able to navigate their brave new world with little friction so far.

Jeffries has already pulled in more than $14 million for the DCCC in the first few months of the cycle. He’s also managed to keep the Democratic Caucus mostly together on some politically tough votes for vulnerable incumbents. And Jeffries has forged a cordial working relationship with McCarthy after years of dysfunction between the chamber’s leaders. So far.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: “Show us your plan.” That’s been the New York Democrat’s mantra for weeks now when it comes to Republicans’ insistence that his party and the White House accept steep spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt limit. Schumer feels increasingly confident that House Republicans will fold, especially since they’re unlikely to release a budget proposal in time for the upcoming debt limit deadline.

On the floor, Schumer has continued to shepherd bipartisan legislation through the chamber and has granted Republicans several amendment votes. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) glowingly referred to it on Thursday as “the new Senate.”

There was a concern that this would stifle the Senate’s historic pace of judicial confirmations. After all, it took the Senate two full weeks to process the Iraq AUMF repeal despite overwhelming bipartisan support. But Democrats were able to confirm a couple more judges during that stretch, bringing the total number to 119 under Biden.

The chamber’s bipartisan streak isn’t over either. Schumer filed cloture last week on the Fire Grant and Safety Act, and he’s expected to move soon on a railway safety bill.

On nominations, Schumer has a potentially difficult path ahead. Julie Su faces a bruising fight to win confirmation as the next Labor secretary, while Circuit Court nominee Michael Delaney is facing intense scrutiny over his role in a sexual-assault case. This comes after Biden nominees for the FCC and FAA were forced to withdraw in the face of opposition from all Republicans and a handful of Democrats.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell: The GOP leader’s absence from the Capitol for the last few weeks has been felt in a number of ways, especially on foreign policy and national defense, as we’ve previously chronicled.

The expectation is that McConnell will be back when the Senate returns from the two-week recess. But in the meantime, McConnell has weighed in on a host of floor debates from rehab and from home, most notably on Iraq AUMF repeal — which he’s long opposed — and the effort to roll back the administration’s Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule. It’s an effort by McConnell’s team to show that the Kentucky Republican is still engaged with the Senate’s daily business despite being away from the Capitol.

It’s also worth considering whether McConnell’s presence at the Capitol would have led to a resolution in the standoff between Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and the Pentagon over the department’s abortion access policy. Tuberville has been blocking all military promotions and says he won’t relent until the policy is overturned.

While McConnell undoubtedly agrees with Tuberville on the abortion policy, one can imagine the GOP leader stepping in to forge a compromise given his emphasis on military readiness and national security.

— John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Heather Caygle

The latest on GOP investigations into Bragg, Blinken

The House is entering a two-week recess with former President Donald Trump’s indictment dominating the chamber’s attention.

GOP chairs versus Bragg: Three influential House GOP chairs are continuing their investigation of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, even as Bragg says his office won’t cooperate with the probe.

We’ve documented the back-and-forth between Reps. James Comer (R-Ky.), Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) — the chairs of the House Oversight and Accountability, Judiciary and House Administration committees — and Bragg. The Manhattan D.A. has said the grand jury indictment of Trump is none of the House’s business. The Republicans see this differently. We’ll see if this ends up in subpoena land.

McCaul versus State: Another high-profile oversight fight is occurring between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (R-Texas) over Afghanistan withdrawal documents. Last week, McCaul subpoenaed a dissent cable written by State officials stationed in Kabul disapproving of the 2021 withdrawal decision.

McCaul’s subpoena has a Tuesday deadline, according to a committee source. In the meantime, Biden administration officials are pointing to a statement by the head of the American Foreign Service Association that backs the White House’s stance here.

“Failure to protect the confidentiality of constructive dissent can lead to a fear of disclosure or retaliation that may dissuade career employees from offering their best professional advice,” AFSA President Eric Rubin wrote last week. Rubin recently served as U.S. ambassador to Bulgaria.

— Max Cohen

K Street doesn’t expect cannabis reform any time soon

If you can think of any sad weed puns, let us know. K Street is feeling pretty dour about the prospects of legislative reform around cannabis over the next two years.

Our latest Canvass survey of Washington’s lobbying sector, conducted March 6-24 in partnership with Locust Street Group, found 59% of respondents think it’s unlikely Congress makes any changes to federal cannabis policy this year.

That includes the Secure and Fair Enforcement Banking Act, which would make it easier for banks to work with state-legal cannabis firms. Cannabis reform in general has been a major priority for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer since last year, but he can’t count on cooperation from a Democratic-controlled House anymore now that Republicans are in charge.

There’s not much difference between K Street’s Republican and Democratic leaders on the issue. Republicans are just barely more optimistic, with 21% saying that cannabis reforms are likely in the 118th Congress, compared to 16% of Democrats.

Opinions are pretty firm on this: 59% of respondents said it was “unlikely” Congress would act, compared to 18% who said it was “somewhat likely.”

We like to imagine that Congress is still capable of surprising us, but we’re not shocked by these results either. Top leadership among House Republicans aren’t enthusiastic on this issue, even with narrower cannabis reforms like the SAFE Banking Act. That includes House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.).

At the same time, the Democrats and Republicans in the Senate are working on this right now. We expect we’ll hear more from lawmakers come April, when a certain holiday rolls around mid-month.

– Brendan Pedersen

…AND THERE’S MORE

First in Punchbowl News: Frontline Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) raised just over $1 million in the first quarter of 2023, an impressive haul for one of the chamber’s most endangered incumbents. Ryan won a high-profile Hudson Valley special election in August 2022 before winning a full term by 1.4 points in November.

Gallagher hits the West Coast: Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), the chair of the China competition select committee, is traveling to California this week for meetings with top tech and business leaders. Gallagher is scheduled to speak with Bob Iger of Disney, Tim Cook of Apple and venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Vinod Khosla. Gallagher will also hold meetings with top Hollywood studio executives.

Gallagher’s overall goal is to discuss how to best combat China’s growing influence with the industry leaders. The Wisconsin Republican also wants to engage with those who will be affected by a potential change in U.S. policy on China. Here’s more details on what Gallagher is aiming to achieve out West:

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS

9 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

11 a.m.: Biden will leave Delaware for Minneapolis. Olivia Dalton will brief en route on Air Force One.

1:40 p.m.: Biden will arrive in Minneapolis

3:05 p.m.: Biden will tour the Cummins Power Generation Facility in Fridley, Minn.

3:35 p.m.: Biden will speak.

5:40 p.m.: Biden will leave Minneapolis for Andrews. He’s expected at the White House at 8:10 p.m.

CLIP FILE

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Bloomberg

Politico