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April 9, 2025
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THE TOP
Trump gets sharp as House Republicans move budget toward the floor
Happy Wednesday morning.
House Republicans raised $35.2 million last night from a glitzy black tie dinner with President Donald Trump, money that will be used for the reelection campaigns of dozens of lawmakers.
Yet Trump and House GOP leaders still can’t convince a bloc of hardline conservative Republicans to drop their opposition to a Senate-revised budget resolution needed to unlock an expedited pathway to cut taxes and a huge reduction in federal spending.
Trump’s stern suggestion to those members, as delivered in a tuxedo from the podium at the National Building Museum: “Close your eyes and get there. It’s a phenomenal bill. Stop grandstanding.” Trump said we are “one big, beautiful bill signing away from the greatest economy in the history of the world.” 2
Trump said if his agenda is enacted, House Republicans will win “40, 50 or even 60 seats.”
“If we don’t get it done because of stupidity or a couple of people who want to show how great they are, you just have to laugh at them or smile at them or cry right in their face,” Trump added.
That harsh presidential message was aimed very pointedly at several Republicans: House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.), Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas), Scott Perry (R-Pa.), David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) and others.
It was a foreshadowing of what’s to come from Trump. Tuesday was the soft sell. Trump had a group of wavering Republicans at the White House and tried to convince them to back the budget resolution approved by the Senate on Saturday.
Now, with House GOP leaders preparing for a key procedural vote as early as today, Trump’s tone has hardened considerably. It will only get harder from here.
Because Trump followed Speaker Mike Johnson and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith’s (R-Mo.) advice, much of the president’s legislative program is locked up in one bill. And this group of conservative Republicans’ unwillingness to budget has stalled Johnson’s pathway to bring the budget resolution to the House floor.
In the face of a trade war, sliding global markets – Asian markets were down again today as Trump’s new tariffs kicked in – and geopolitical instability, there’s new urgency around the White House agenda.
But the stubbornly large group of House Republicans who refuse to accede to Trump’s demands has raised uncomfortable questions inside the GOP:
– Has Trump lost some sway with the conservative members of the House Republican Conference?
– Can Johnson bring the budget resolution to the floor this week? Or will Johnson have to cancel next week’s scheduled House recess to continue the pressure campaign?
– Most importantly, does the Republican leadership need to begin thinking about a “Plan B” for getting this done?
We’re seeing some limited movement this morning. The House Rules Committee has noticed an 8:45 a.m. hearing on the budget. This is the first step toward bringing the measure to the House floor.
Wither Trump? It’s tremendously difficult for members or even senators to say no to a president of their own party. That’s how former President Barack Obama got Obamacare done. That’s how former President Joe Biden was able to pass the Inflation Reduction Act.
The White House’s sales job Tuesday was to a group of two dozen or so Republican members. It’s easy to resist entreaties in a large setting. It’s much harder when you are face-to-face with the president. If Trump – who effectively won this House majority – asks a rank-and-file Republican directly for their vote in order to salvage his agenda, it’s going to be very hard to say no.
The GOP leadership’s timeline. The first step for Johnson was to schedule the Rules Committee meeting this morning. That means the GOP leadership can bring the rule to the floor today. The rule vote is critical; if House Republicans pass the rule, they will most likely pass the underlying resolution.
Johnson can’t afford another day of delays. The Republican leadership is willing to keep the House in session over the weekend and into next week. But that will be an unpopular decision, with congressional delegations ready to go abroad and Passover beginning at sundown Saturday.
The not-so-good Plan Bs. There really is no fallback plan if House Republicans can’t pass this budget. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has made abundantly clear that this compromise resolution is as aggressive a document as the Senate could pass.
But it’s time to at least consider potential Plan Bs.
1) Start reconciliation without passing a budget resolution. Conservative hardliners insist that the House doesn’t need to pass a budget to begin crafting a reconciliation bill. That’s true, and it has some merit. The House leadership could decide to craft a reconciliation package first and then write a budget resolution to fit the bill. The idea is to get Republicans excited about the bill, not a vaguely written budget resolution. Ultimately, however, the test will be how far Senate Republicans can go. This Trump agenda can’t be enacted without reconciliation protection to overcome a Democratic filibuster.
2) Amend the current resolution. This is a really suboptimal idea that we’ve been hearing about. If House Republicans amend the joint resolution, their Senate GOP counterparts could just ignore it. This doesn’t get Republicans anywhere.
3) Enter a formal conference negotiation. Some conservatives have called for House and Senate Republicans to open formal negotiations to resolve the differences between the two chambers’ budget plans. Good luck bridging the gap between $4 billion in cuts and $2 trillion in spending cuts.
– Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
NEW! Join us on Tuesday, April 29 at 8:30 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.). Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer will sit down with Lee to discuss news of the day and how the country is advancing with artificial intelligence as part of our series, “The Ones to Watch: Advancing with AI.” Afterward, Lisa Gevelber, founder of Grow with Google, will join Anna for a fireside chat. RSVP here!
TODAY: Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) will sit down with Punchbowl News Founder Jake Sherman at 8:30 a.m. ET to discuss the news of the day and investing in America. RSVP now!
THE HOUSE
House Republicans’ next headache: The Medicaid fight
If House Republican leadership can turn things around and force the Senate-passed budget resolution through the chamber, they’ll quickly face a politically toxic showdown over cutting Medicaid.
There would be intense pressure from House Freedom Caucus members and other deficit hawks to draft a reconciliation package that meets the House’s spending cut instructions. That would mean $880 billion in cuts from the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s jurisdiction – the vast majority of which would need to come from Medicaid.
A group of House Republicans — including moderates and vulnerable members — have been warning leadership about how far they’re willing to go on Medicaid. They’re already getting hammered by Democrats over potential cuts to the popular program. Some of the GOP lawmakers say they’re willing to kill the final reconciliation package if it goes too far, an unusual show of defiance from the centrist wing.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told us he’d vote against a final bill if it includes massive spending cuts that harm Medicaid.
“There’s a clear understanding between many of us and the speaker,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) added. “We will not vote for something that takes away eligibility from our constituents, period.”
Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said he has concerns but he’s willing to back the budget resolution and fight it out later.
“We’ll vote on the merits of all these proposals come reconciliation,” LaLota said. “And if they don’t meet the day, I’ll vote no.”
The calculus: The Senate-passed budget resolution doesn’t lock the chamber into any Medicaid cuts in the reconciliation process, but it maintains the House’s $880 billion goal. That’s good news for these centrist members, but they still face problems.
1) They’ll be up against GOP colleagues eager for deep cuts and who are far more used to tanking leadership’s plans to get what they want.
2) Opposing the final reconciliation bill – and bucking President Donald Trump – will be nearly impossible for any Republican.
3) These members will be under pressure to vote for $880 billion in E&C reductions at least initially, which could lead to taking tough votes on Medicaid cuts that are dead in the Senate anyway.
E&C has emphasized it can find its cuts from other policy areas under its jurisdiction. But there’s not a lot of bang for their buck beyond Medicaid, per CBO.
News on Dems: House Democrats have a new angle on the GOP spending-cut plans. House Budget Committee Ranking Member Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) is leading a bill to block cuts to Medicaid or SNAP using reconciliation. Democratic Reps. Frank Pallone (N.J.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Greg Casar (Texas), Brad Schneider (Ill.), and Lou Correa (Calif.) are also sponsoring the measure. This group represents Democrats from across the committees and caucus.
Boyle said “if Republicans truly stand with everyday Americans, they’ll support this bill.”
— Laura Weiss and Samantha Handler
WHIP WATCH
The post-Durbin Illinois Senate primary heats up
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) still hasn’t announced whether he’ll run for reelection in 2026. But that hasn’t stopped ambitious Illinois Democrats from lining up to replace him.
Publicly, up-and-coming Illinois Democrats are staying mum on Durbin’s future. Privately, they’re jockeying for the upper hand in a potentially brutal primary.
The primary dynamic spilled into the open this week, motivated by the buzz around a poll commissioned by Democratic group 314 Action that excluded Durbin. The poll has Reps. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) in the top tier of contenders with 33% and 30% support respectively, ahead of Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton at 16% and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) at 10%.
It’s important to note that 314 Action, an organization dedicated to electing more science professionals, is lining up behind Underwood, who worked as a nurse before flipping a House seat in 2018.
On the heels of the poll, Underwood’s team sent out a fundraising appeal to donors touting the numbers. “We’re gearing up and getting ready here on the campaign side,” the email said, the clearest indication that Underwood is prepping for a statewide bid.
When we asked Underwood about the Senate race on Tuesday, the fourth-term lawmaker was more circumspect.
“I think Sen. Durbin has had a really remarkable career, and has made us all so proud,” Underwood said. “I hear he’s going to be making an announcement soon.”
Underwood declined to comment on our follow-up question asking if she was going to jump in the race.
Durbin, 80, said in late March that he was weeks away from making a reelection decision. The longtime No. 2 Senate Democrat is expected to align his announcement with the upcoming Senate recess and a critical pre-endorsement process held by Cook County Democrats.
In the meantime, other Illinois Democrats have been waiting in the wings to jump in depending what Durbin says.
It’s an open secret in political circles that Krishnamoorthi, who ended the first quarter with an astounding $19 million on hand, is eyeing a Senate run. “There’s no vacancy,” Krishnamoorthi repeatedly responded to us this week when asked about his plans.
Either way, they likely won’t be the only two in the race for a seat Durbin has held for nearly 30 years. Stratton, the state’s lieutenant governor, has signaled she would be backed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker in a Senate primary, Politico reported last month.
And Kelly, a longtime House Democrat who’s served in the House since 2013, is also seriously considering a Senate run if Durbin retires.
— Max Cohen
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CARD SUBHEADING TK
Nickel announcing Senate run today as Paxton challenges Cornyn
News: Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) will announce today that he’s going to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) for his Senate seat in 2026.
Nickel, who served in the House from 2023 to 2025, also served in the North Carolina state senate. Wiley was redistricted out of his seat by Republicans.
The big question hanging over this race is whether former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper gets in the race against Tillis. Cooper would be the favorite in the Tarheel State. In a midterm election, Democrats will be competitive.
Lone Star State. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced Tuesday night on Fox News that he would challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).
Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002, narrowly lost a race for Senate Republican leader in November. Cornyn’s campaign pushed back hard on Paxton’s announcement.
We interviewed Paxton about his Senate ambitions last month.
– Jake Sherman
THE CAMPAIGN
Michigan lawyer Jessica Swartz is launching her campaign against GOP Rep. Bill Huizenga in the Wolverine State’s 4th District.
Swartz lost to Huizenga by roughly 12 points last cycle but Democrats are hoping to flip the district in 2026. The DCCC and House Majority PAC have put this seat on their target list.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter currently lists the district as R+3.
In Indiana: Democratic activist George Hornedo is officially launching his primary campaign against veteran Rep. Andre Carson (D-Ind.). We reported Hornedo’s interest in challenging Carson in the state’s 7th District last week. Here’s his launch video.
– Mica Soellner
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