Can Republicans turn the page from Iran?

IN THIS EDITION

Why the GOP will have trouble moving past Iran

How Blanche can run DOJ without confirmation

Vault: The Powell standoff and the way out

How Republicans on Trump’s bad side are messaging

THE TOP

Why the GOP will have trouble moving past Iran

Happy Thursday morning.

Can Republicans escape the long shadow of the Iran war?

President Donald Trump will head to Arizona and Nevada next week to talk about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and its tax cuts, the biggest policy win notched by the GOP-run Congress. And there will be a MAHA roundtable at the White House today. Trump is seemingly trying to turn the page from a brutal month of war in Iran and Republican infighting in Washington.

But it won’t be that easy.

Despite the ceasefire, oil tankers still aren’t moving through the Strait of Hormuz yet, and the question of Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon is being disputed by U.S., Israeli and Iranian officials. Trump warned late Wednesday night that U.S. forces “will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.”

Plus, with lawmakers returning to Washington for the first time in two weeks on Monday, the Capitol will be dominated by votes and action related to the 40-day long conflict.

Consider this: Just next week, Congress is going to have to wrestle with the expiration of FISA Section 702, a key national security policy that needs House approval. There will be war powers resolution votes in both the House and Senate, with growing anger and dismay about Trump’s handling of foreign and military policy. Lawmakers also need to begin grappling with a multibillion-dollar Pentagon supplemental spending bill.

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll will be on Capitol Hill Thursday for a budget hearing in front of the House Appropriations Committee. This will give Democrats their first chance to directly hammer the Trump administration over the conduct of the war. Driscoll is a close ally and Yale Law School classmate of Vice President JD Vance, the Iran war skeptic who is now leading the peace talks. Driscoll also has his own rivalry with Defense Secretary Pete Hegeth.

And do you remember that the Department of Homeland Security is still shut down? That 54-day crisis still has to be solved. Trump has ordered DHS employees to be paid, yet no one is quite sure whether it’s completely legal or how long it can last.

Before Iran and after Iran. The issue for Trump and GOP congressional leaders is whether they can somehow move beyond Iran to talk about domestic issues.

Much will depend on the negotiations in Islamabad. This is by far the most important assignment of Vance’s life. A failure here could lead to a renewal of the war, with all that means for the soldiers and citizens of both countries.

A secondary issue is Vance’s own political interests. This could have big repercussions for a potential White House run in 2028.

Trump and Hill Republicans face major consequences as well. Trump’s reckless, dangerous Iran rhetoric over the last 10 days shocked lawmakers in both parties. Dozens of Democrats are calling for Trump’s impeachment once again. They won’t be able to remove him from office, but they can try.

Trump was already sliding in the polls before this war. His approval ratings on the economy and cost-of-living issues have tanked. Republicans have done nothing significant on the affordability front in months (new inflation data will be out this morning). If Trump and Republicans can’t turn this around, they’re very likely to lose the House and some Senate seats.

Another challenge for Trump. Congress’s return will kick off another clash — a massive supplemental spending bill for the Pentagon.

The latest thinking in the White House is that the administration wants to try to pass a Pentagon spending bill on a bipartisan basis after hostilities cease. This seems to be a long shot, but administration officials will make the case that the United States needs weapons also to help protect Ukraine, something Democrats theoretically would be more receptive to.

But again, this doesn’t help Trump or Republicans focus on domestic issues.

On the ground. Senate Republican leaders have already started hitting the road to sell the OBBB, including appearances with GOP candidates and vulnerable incumbents to tout the newly created tax benefits — chief among them, no tax on tips and overtime. It’s exactly what Republicans want to be talking about a week out from Tax Day.

But that message hasn’t broken through in places where Republicans need it most. Meanwhile, Democrats have focused on the bill’s hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicaid cuts, in addition to Republicans’ opposition to extending Obamacare subsidies.

The war in Iran has intensified Democrats’ focus on affordability. Democrats argue that Trump and Republicans are cutting health care benefits to pay for an unpopular war of choice. You’ll hear that a lot more from Democrats as Republicans consider ways to pass a defense supplemental via budget reconciliation, a process in which GOP conservatives would likely demand spending offsets.

Democratic lawmakers in Arizona and Nevada are already pushing back on Trump’s efforts to turn the page amid a shaky economy and a volatile war effort that has jacked up gas prices.

“It’s a mess, and he created this mess in a number of different ways — the war in Iran and crappy legislation,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said in an interview.

Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) told us that Nevada’s tourism industry — the lifeblood of the state’s economy — has taken a big hit because of Trump’s economic policies.

“It’s hard for hospitality workers to be happy about ‘no tax on tips’ when they aren’t getting as many tips as they used to, so the president would do well to explain to Nevadans what concrete actions he’s going to take to lower costs and support our tourism industry,” Rosen said.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Laura Weiss

THE SENATE

How Blanche can run DOJ without confirmation

Call it the “Julie Su precedent.”

And it may allow Todd Blanche to continue serving as acting attorney general for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term, even if he doesn’t have the votes to be confirmed by the Senate.

Former President Joe Biden and Senate Democrats laid the groundwork for Trump to keep Blanche atop indefinitely when they paved the way for Julie Su to serve as acting secretary of labor for nearly two years without the Senate ever voting on her nomination.

Despite having been confirmed as deputy labor secretary in July 2021, Su lacked the votes to become secretary in 2023. That’s because then-Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) — who still belonged to the Senate Democratic Caucus at that point — opposed Su’s nomination.

Biden formally nominated Su to succeed Marty Walsh on March 1, 2023, but her nomination lagged for so long that Biden had to renominate her in 2024. All pending nominations get wiped out at the end of each calendar year. Su was cleared by the HELP Committee again, but she couldn’t win confirmation by the full Senate.

Because Su’s nomination was always “pending” before the Senate, she was able to continue serving as acting secretary through the end of Biden’s presidency, a total of 22 months.

Then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer regularly avoided reporters’ questions about Su’s nomination, saying only that he was working to get her confirmed.

The Government Accountability Office also ruled that Su could stay in place, notwithstanding the 1998 Federal Vacancies Reform Act, which would limit her to seven months. We spoke with legal and procedural experts who believe that GAO would rule the same way on a Blanche nomination.

At the time, several senators feared that the Su situation would set a precedent that would weaken the Senate’s advice-and-consent authority on presidential nominations.

Tables turned. Blanche was officially announced on Tuesday as the acting attorney general. During a news conference at the Justice Department, Blanche nodded to the various possibilities in terms of his job status long-term, saying he doesn’t have any “goals or aspirations.”

“I love working for President Trump. It’s the greatest honor of a lifetime,” Blanche said. “And if President Trump chooses to keep me as acting, that’s an honor. If he chooses to nominate me, that’s an honor. If he chooses to nominate somebody else… that’s an honor.”

We spoke with several GOP senators, including some who serve on the Senate Judiciary Committee. None had direct insight into whether Trump plans to formally nominate Blanche, pick someone new or just leave Blanche in place as the acting AG.

It’s unclear whether Blanche could win Senate confirmation as attorney general. The Senate confirmed Blanche on a party-line vote last year to serve as deputy attorney general. But that was in a much different political environment for Republicans.

There’s also the possibility that Blanche’s nomination wouldn’t even get out of committee. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has vowed that he won’t vote for any nominee who “excused” the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Tillis is the deciding vote on the Judiciary Committee, and his opposition would sink any Trump nominee.

While there’s no evidence that Blanche excused the Jan. 6 violence or otherwise praised the rioters, Blanche cheered Trump’s pardons of the rioters during an appearance last week at CPAC.

Blanche was Trump’s lead defense attorney in the high-profile criminal prosecutions of the president, including the federal cases centered on his efforts to overturn the 2020 election and the retention of classified documents, as well as the hush-money trial in New York City.

Throughout his tenure as the No. 2 at DOJ, Blanche has come under scrutiny for his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, including his private interviews with Ghislaine Maxwell. Maxwell — who is serving a 20-year sentence for conspiring with Epstein to sexually abuse minors — was moved to a minimum-security prison following her meetings with Blanche.

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Vault: The Powell standoff and the way out

President Donald Trump needs an off-ramp if he wants to get rid of Jay Powell as the chair of the Federal Reserve.

Now, his administration and top players on Capitol Hill are actively discussing what that will look like.

The Senate is expected to take its first steps toward advancing the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair on April 16.

But the big obstacle remains the same. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) refuses to vote for Warsh while the Justice Department continues its criminal inquiry into the Powell-led renovations of the Fed’s headquarters. Tillis sits on the Senate Banking Committee, so a “no” vote from the North Carolina Republican would deadlock the panel and sink Warsh’s nomination.

Officials at many levels of the Trump administration are aware of discussions happening now over a way out of the impasse. Key officials have accepted it will have to involve ditching the criminal investigation into Powell for Warsh to make it through the Senate.

Tillis has no reason to back down, and there are other GOP senators beyond the Banking Committee who share his concerns on the Powell probe. That means the only way out for Trump is a compromise.

What an offramp could look like. To satisfy Trump, the administration will need to find another way to pursue a probe of Powell and renovations to the Fed’s headquarters under his watch.

Some options include a congressional investigation or an internal review led by another government agency. Powell formally requested a review of the renovation effort by the Fed’s Office of Inspector General in 2025.

It’s possible these options could be enough to placate Tillis and other GOP senators. But Tillis hasn’t weighed in publicly on whether he’d accept them.

It’s a harder sell for Trump, who has egged on the investigation into Powell and attacked him repeatedly for months on end. Trump will have to decide if getting his hand-picked Fed chair is enough of a win to make it worthwhile.

The timeline. There’s pressure to figure out a solution quickly. Powell’s term as Fed chair is up on May 15.

The Banking Committee is still waiting for Warsh’s final paperwork and financial disclosures to be submitted. Next week’s hearing date is contingent on that paperwork being filed. Warsh’s disclosures are expected to be complicated, given his family wealth.

The Banking panel’s rules require notice to be given by the end of the day today for a hearing next Thursday. If Warsh’s paperwork remains elusive, we expect the hearing timing to be pushed back.

If not for the Powell investigation, it appears Warsh would have no problem getting confirmed. The former Fed Board member has won praise from GOP senators including Tillis. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) also had good things to say after meeting with Warsh.

— Laura Weiss, Brendan Pedersen, Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

THE AIRWAVES

How Republicans on Trump’s bad side are messaging

What do you do if you’re a Republican candidate running in a primary where President Donald Trump has endorsed your opponent? In today’s GOP, the answer is increasingly to pretend that Trump is with you anyway.

In Louisiana’s GOP Senate primary, Trump backed Rep. Julia Letlow over Sen. Bill Cassidy. That hasn’t stopped Cassidy from running an ad touting his work with Trump in passing the HALT Fentanyl Act.

“President Trump said it was the most important legislation he would sign this year,” Cassidy says in the ad.

Cassidy is also airing an ad tying himself to Trump’s signature legislative achievement, with “Trump & Cassidy” flashing across the screen as voters talk about the reconciliation package.

In Kentucky’s 4th District, Trump is endorsing Ed Gallrein over GOP Rep. Thomas Massie. Massie is one of Trump’s most frequent GOP antagonists, from the Jeffrey Epstein files to foreign policy.

But Massie’s campaign is running ads that open with an old picture of Massie and Trump grinning side by side, both flashing thumbs up.

Facing reality. The trend is an acknowledgment that Trump’s endorsement is the most valuable currency in GOP primaries. There’s no use fighting against that, which leads to these ads.

While Trump hasn’t endorsed in the Texas Senate race, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is also nevertheless tying himself closely to the president.

One ad from Cornyn’s camp features a picture of Trump next to Cornyn, both with their thumbs up. The ad also plays a short clip from a rally where Trump says he’s grateful for Cornyn.

Cornyn’s example isn’t as far a stretch as Cassidy and Massie, given Trump hasn’t backed Ken Paxton in the race.

— Max Cohen

AND THERE’S MORE

Fundraising scoops: Michael Whatley, the GOP candidate for Senate in North Carolina, raised $5 million in the first quarter of 2026. Whatley has raised $16 million in the first eight months of his campaign.

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) raised more than $3 million to her Senate campaign and authorized committees in the first quarter. She has $6.5 million in her election account and $6.9 million in authorized committees. She’s outraised both of her Democratic opponents by a margin of three to one.

Ad news: Planned Parenthood Action Fund is launching a $1.5 million campaign attacking five vulnerable House GOP incumbents over cuts to health care.

The group is dedicating $900,000 to ad campaigns singling out Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Gabe Evans (R-Colo.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa). The messaging will call on their constituents to demand Republicans oppose any legislation that attempts to defund Planned Parenthood.

— Max Cohen and Andrew Desiderio

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