The Archive

Ohio rematch divides progressives, sparks backlash

The Congressional Progressive Caucus’ endorsement of Ohio Rep. Shontel Brown, who’s again facing off against liberal Nina Turner Tuesday, has prompted fierce backlash from liberal groups. And in the Capitol, it has also sparked new conversations within CPC leadership over whether they should change their endorsement policies to better reflect the constituencies in the left-leaning caucus.

Brown’s endorsement represents another chapter in the proxy war between establishment Democrats and progressives as they struggle over the party’s direction during the Biden era. CPC members – like the broader Democratic Party – are wrestling with key questions: How big should their tent be? And who gets to be in it?

Turner, who co-chaired Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) 2020 presidential campaign, was the favorite heading into the special election last year to replace Rep. Marcia Fudge, now HUD secretary. But the campaign grew heated over Turner’s controversial comments about several high-profile Democrats including now President Joe Biden and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn.

Key progressives ranging from Sanders to CPC Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) to members of the Squad – including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) – went all in for Turner. Establishment Democrats campaigned hard for Brown, who ended up winning comfortably.

In the high-profile rematch this cycle, the CPC endorsed Brown – now the incumbent – on April 13. That announcement triggered an immediate uproar from progressive groups and left-leaning media outlets, several of whom accused Jayapal of doing it to further her own leadership ambitions.

In an interview, Jayapal defended the Brown endorsement, describing her as a progressive member “in good standing for four months” who met all the qualifications laid out by the CPC. Jayapal also noted that even with the endorsement, the CPC’s campaign arm hasn’t put any money into the race.

Jayapal denied this had anything to do with her future leadership goals. But she did confirm discussions within the CPC – particularly at a members-only executive board meeting last week – about changing its endorsement rules going forward.

Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), who co-chairs the CPC PAC, defended the process for considering endorsements, saying that CPC members are expected to cosponsor priority bills, vote with the caucus and regularly participate in its meetings – all things Brown has done. “If an incumbent is in good standing, which she is, then we have criteria that we’ve never had as stringent as this session,” Pocan said.

The stricter CPC membership requirements came in fall 2020, when Jayapal led a full overhaul of the caucus rules, tightening membership requirements to weed out non-progressives. Any future rules changes – such as endorsement policies – would require approval from the full caucus and likely take time to implement.

But that hasn’t stopped progressives, including members of the Squad, from being upset about the CPC’s decision to wade into this race. Brown joined both the CPC and New Democrats once she entered Congress. This move had progressives questioning whether Brown was committed to their policy goals or seeking an association with the group simply to ward off progressive challengers, including Turner.

Sanders made clear he remains firmly committed to Turner, despite the CPC’s endorsement of Brown.

“Nina is one of the leading progressives in this country. We need her in the Congress to stand up for working people. And I hope very much she gets elected,” Sanders told us when asked about the CPC’s decision to weigh in for Brown. “They have their rules and that’s what they do. But there’s no doubt I’m strongly supporting Nina.”

Turner insisted that the CPC’s endorsement of Brown doesn’t change anything.

Brown also defended CPC membership in a statement shared with us.

Several high-profile Democrats including Clyburn and House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries were in Ohio stumping with Brown this weekend.

But the Brown-Turner rematch isn’t the only race where this could be an issue. Some liberal lawmakers privately said they’re worried this scenario is playing out in Illinois, where incumbent Rep. Danny Davis is seeking to re-join the CPC as he tries to head off a far-left challenger this summer.

Davis pushed back on those accusations in an interview. “People have a right to think whatever they want to think,” he told us. Davis said he was once a member of the CPC but left due to budgetary reasons.

“I would probably say that my voting record is about the same as any member in good standing of the Progressive Caucus. I didn’t need any other reason to join other than that I wanted to, and that it’s relevant to the work that I did.”

The CPC has nearly 100 members, making it one of the largest caucuses in the House. But there have long been questions about whether the group is cohesive enough to wield power like some of the other caucuses in the House. We’ll be following the rules change discussion – and any other power moves the CPC pursues – closely in the runup to the midterms and beyond.

– Christian Hall

THE TRUMP EFFECT

Senate GOP primaries will put Trump’s sway to the test

Former President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot this cycle. But you wouldn’t know that if you turned on a TV in many parts of the country. Viewers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Alabama — which are hosting the top Republican Senate primaries in May — are seeing Trump mentioned in thousands of commercials worth tens of millions of dollars.

Across these key states, nearly four in ten Republican Senate primary ads broadcast this year mentioned Trump, according to an AdImpact analysis provided to Punchbowl News.

The GOP candidates have viciously battled over Trump’s endorsement — even if he can’t always remember their name afterward. Ohio and Pennsylvania in particular featured brutal contests to win his support.

Yet after Trump endorsed candidates in those races, it hasn’t stopped the passed-over hopefuls from trying to align themselves with the former president in hopes of swinging the race their way.

“Everybody wants it,” NRSC Chair Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said in an interview, speaking about Trump’s endorsement. The NRSC stays out of primaries, but Scott said it’s clear any candidate vying to make it to the general election is courting the former president.

The statistics back up the claim. Across the GOP Senate primaries in Ohio, Alabama, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, AdImpact data shows that $19.2 million has been spent on ads mentioning Trump — a total of 54,180 ad spots.

Up until now, much has been made of Trump’s continuing influence on the Republican Party. But in May, we’ll get a real sense of how much weight the de facto party leader’s endorsement still carries.

In the end, “Hillbilly Elegy” author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance won Trump’s backing two weeks ago. Vance, who had been lagging in the polls, promptly shot up to the top spot. In Fox News polling – generally respected by pollsters and political data professionals – Vance’s support rocketed up 12 percentage points, the clearest example of Trump’s endorsement resulting in a popularity boom this cycle. Vance is also enjoying an influx of money following Trump’s endorsement.

But Trump couldn’t get Vance’s name right at a rally in Nebraska on Sunday.

“We’ve endorsed J.P., right? J.D. Mandel,” Trump said during the rally.

Nonetheless, the unwieldy array of GOP primary hopefuls has resulted in a fluid, often unpredictable campaign, with the winner likely to receive well under 50 percent of the vote.

Ad watch: This spot, paid for by pro-Vance PAC Protect Ohio Values, touts Trump’s endorsement of Vance and mentions “Trump” a whopping six times in 30 seconds. Impressive.

The Trump factor by the numbers: 40% of TV ads run in the Ohio race mentioned Trump, totalling 24,200 airings and $8.9 million spent.

Trump endorsed Oz last month. Yet while Oz remains highly competitive in the race, available polling doesn’t show the celebrity doctor pulling away from the field or receiving a Vance-sized bump. Like Ohio, the Pennsylvania GOP field is large and messy. Jeff Bartos, Carla Sands and Kathy Barnette are also contenders.

The Trump factor by the numbers: 35% of TV ads run in the Pennsylvania primary mentioned Trump, for a total of 16,185 airings and $6.4 million spent.

Ad watch: Following the endorsement, Oz’s campaign released an entire ad gloating over how Trump passed over McCormick, Bartos and Sands for Oz.

The Trump factor by the numbers: 40% of the primary ads mention Trump. The 3,866 ads aired totaled $1.8 million in spending.

Ad: Even though McCrory got passed over for the Trump endorsement, the former governor’s allies are still trying to tie him to the ex-president. In one ad, a pro-McCrory super PAC tries to drive a wedge between Budd and Trump on immigration. The spot pledges McCrory will build Trump’s wall at the U.S.-Mexico border.

But as the campaign progressed and Brooks lost ground to retiring Sen. Richard Shelby’s (R-Ala.) former chief of staff Katie Britt and “Black Hawk Down” pilot Mike Durant, Trump pulled back his endorsement of Brooks. Brooks has now turned on Trump, claiming that the former president asked him to illegally “rescind” the results of the 2020 election and remove President Joe Biden from office.

The entire episode has shown that Trump’s endorsement alone is far from the Midas touch in today’s GOP.

The Trump factor by the numbers: 37% of ads included Trump, totalling 9,929 ad airings and $2.1 million in spending.

Ad: In an ad that first aired on March 18, Brooks tried to stave off a reported Trump un-endorsement by playing up his fiery speech before the Jan. 6 insurrection. Even that didn’t work. Five days later, Trump pulled his endorsement of the struggling candidate.

– Max Cohen

THE TRUMP EFFECT

Does 45 have sway in gubernatorial races?

The Republican Senate primaries have attracted the lion’s share of the ad spending and political attention this cycle. But former President Donald Trump’s political capital is also at stake in key gubernatorial and House primaries this month.

In Idaho and Georgia, Trump is endorsing right-wing challengers to incumbent Republican governors. In Nebraska, Trump is backing a scandal-ridden candidate in an open field, who’s up against a more establishment candidate backed by the outgoing governor.

Trump and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) are endorsing different candidates in a Republican-on-Republican House primary in deep-red West Virginia. Plus, North Carolina GOP Rep. Madison Cawthorn will find out if a Trump endorsement is enough to save the scandal-ridden candidate from a flood of primary challengers.

GOVERNORS’ RACES

Trump has endorsed state Sen. Charles Herbster, who has been accused of sexual harrassment, including groping, by multiple women. Trump held a rally for Herbster on Sunday night in Greenwood, Neb.

HOUSE RACES

– Max Cohen

THE WEEKEND

We kicked off WHCD weekend and opened our doors to our new headquarters with an inaugural Townhouse soirée celebrating women leaders in politics, media, tech and business.

A big thanks to our partners Blackstone and Female Quotient. And, to Barry’s Bootcamp and Shinola for contributing to our swag experience.

Raising a glass to our community:

Christine Anderson, Kathleen McCarthy, Wayne Berman, Maura Pally, Alex Katz, Kristan Nevins, Ann Chung and Joe Carapiet of Blackstone, Shelley Zalis and Talia Bender Small of The Female Quotient, Mark Isakowitz and Melonie Parker of Google, Brian Shroder of Binance, Marne Levine of Meta, Phil Deutch of NGP Energy Technology Partners, Ruthie Underwood and Tom Forrest of Shinola, Puru Trivedi of Meridian International, Elizabeth Wise of Sazerac, Isaac Reyes of Target, Lisa Roman and Payton Iheme of Bumble, Joe Wall of Goldman Sachs, Jamie Wall of SIFMA, Danielle Burr of McKinsey, Geoff Burr of BHFS, Dannia Hakki of Moki Media, Hugh Gamble of Salesforce, Joey Gonzalez of Barry’s Bootcamp, and Cristina Angelo of Ferox Strategies.

Check out photos from the event here.

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MOMENTS

10:15 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

1:45 p.m.: Biden will present the Presidential Rank Awards.

2:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

4 p.m.: Biden and First Lady Jill Biden will host a reception to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, the end of Ramadan. Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will also attend.

Week ahead: Tuesday: Biden will travel to Alabama to visit a Lockheed Martin plant, which is producing weapons for Ukraine. Thursday: Biden will host a Cinco de Mayo celebration.

CLIP FILE

NYT

“Biden Received Early Warnings That Immigration and Inflation Could Erode His Support,” by Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns

WaPo

“Virus mutations aren’t slowing down. New omicron subvariant proves it,” by Joel Achenbach

WSJ

AP

Politico