What Paxton’s victory means

IN THIS EDITION

Cornyn loses as Paxton takes center stage

What the NDAA says about defense hawks

Iowa’s GOP congressional hopefuls stick with Trump

What we’re watching

THE TOP

Cornyn loses as Paxton takes center stage

Happy Wednesday morning.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) nearly became Senate majority leader 18 months ago, ending up just a few votes shy of capturing the prestigious post.

Now Cornyn’s 24-year Senate career is over, all at the hands of a vengeful president and an unhappy base.

With President Donald Trump’s eleventh-hour backing, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Cornyn in the GOP primary runoff by a whopping 28-point margin.

The advertising price tag for this Republican primary alone: $130 million. But the general election price tag will make the primary look like child’s play.

Paxton’s victory was the latest example of the widening gulf between Trump’s grip on the GOP base and his sway with Senate Republicans in Washington. Trump has now ousted Cornyn and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), as well as veteran GOP Rep. Thomas Massie (Ky.), even as the president’s hold on Senate Republicans loosens.

Picking up the pieces. With Cornyn’s defeat, the Senate GOP Conference loses a reliable conservative able to cut deals with Democrats on major issues, including gun safety and semiconductor chip manufacturing.

Senate Republicans also lose access to Cornyn’s vast fundraising network in a state filled with wealthy GOP donors. Cornyn has raised more than $400 million for Senate Republicans since 2002.

Paxton formally entered the race in April 2025, declaring that Cornyn’s abysmal poll numbers convinced him to take the plunge. Cornyn angered the GOP base with his reluctance to support Trump’s presidential comeback and willingness to work on a bipartisan gun deal following the horrific 2022 Uvalde school shooting.

Senate GOP leaders and their allies, terrified of the prospect of Paxton as their nominee, spent tens of millions of dollars ahead of the March 3 primary. Cornyn narrowly edged Paxton, but Rep. Wesley Hunt’s (R-Texas) candidacy ensured the race went to a runoff.

From March to May, Republicans spent even more money on Cornyn. Yet runoff dynamics were always going to favor Paxton, who has a dedicated grassroots following despite his myriad of scandals.

Breaking point. Trump wouldn’t endorse Cornyn despite pleas from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other top Republicans. Trump later decided to use it as a cudgel against Thune over the filibuster. Trump played up his support for Paxton on Tuesday night.

Following the March 3 primary, Trump dangled a Cornyn endorsement to convince Senate Republicans to gut the filibuster and pass the SAVE America Act, an effort egged on by Paxton. Cornyn even flip-flopped on his long-standing support for the filibuster. Cornyn also introduced legislation calling for a major federal highway to be named after Trump, as well as backing the president’s military attacks on Iran and Venezuela. None of it helped.

Republicans acknowledge that the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, is a formidable candidate despite what they say are major flaws. Now, they’ll have to spend gobs of money to boost Paxton, whom they trashed during the primary because of his own personal baggage.

That awkwardness was on display Tuesday night when the NRSC released a statement that failed to mention Cornyn or Paxton, instead focusing on Talarico.

The only Senate GOP leader to address the Texas results was Majority Whip John Barrasso, who endorsed Paxton Tuesday evening. Barrasso declared Talarico is “too radical for Texas,” a phrase you’re going to hear a bajillion more times by Election Day.

Paxton and Senate Republicans will have to rely on Trump’s massive war chest and fundraising abilities to help win this race. Paxton’s campaign only reported $2.3 million in the bank as of May 6.

Democrats. Tuesday brought the first two Democratic incumbent losses of the cycle.

In Houston, Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) lost to Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Texas) in a member-vs-member race brought on by redistricting. Menefee, 38, made a generational-change argument against the 78-year-old Green, who was first elected in 2004.

Menefee won a January special election to Congress and received help from a pro-crypto super PAC during the runoff.

In Dallas, Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) lost renomination to former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), the man whom she succeeded in Congress. Allred left the House to make a failed Senate bid.

Perhaps the most high-profile Democratic race was in Texas’ open 35th District, where the DCCC-backed Johnny Garcia beat Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist who openly disparaged Jews in public statements. Despite a mysterious super PAC boosting Galindo, Garcia won.

In the GOP runoff for that seat, Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), topped John Lujan. Democrats plan to contest the seat in November.

Safe GOP seats. Veteran Alex Mealer beat state Rep. Briscoe Cain in the GOP primary runoff for Texas’ new 9th District. Mealer is the likely new member of Congress for this safe-red seat in the Houston area.

In Texas’ open 19th District, former USDA official Tom Sell easily beat activist Abraham Enriquez to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jodey Arrington.

Jon Bonck, a Trump-backed banker, won the GOP nomination to replace Hunt in Texas’ 38th District.

And Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a leader in the House Freedom Caucus, resoundingly lost his runoff for the Republican attorney general nomination to Mayes Middleton. Roy lost by 11 points. The four-term lawmaker will also lose his seat in Congress.

— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan, Ally Mutnick and Jake Sherman

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DEFENSE

What the NDAA says about defense hawks

Leading House defense hawks’ newly released $1.14 trillion military policy bill shows where top lawmakers are planning to draw the battle lines over the Pentagon’s FY2027 budget request.

The draft NDAA, known as the chairman’s mark, seeks to reassert Congress’ place in military force posture decisions and buck the Pentagon’s approach to priority programs — all while tacitly endorsing President Donald Trump’s reconciliation gambit.

The House Armed Services Committee is set to hold its marathon markup of the NDAA on June 4. While members are out on recess this week, their 505-page draft bill does a lot of talking. Here’s what we learned:

1. Top lawmakers are still upset about U.S. personnel moves in Europe.

The NDAA draft would add further guardrails to curb additional withdrawals of American troops from Europe. This comes in the wake of a bipartisan uproar over the Pentagon’s now-scuttled plans to cancel an Army deployment to Poland.

The draft legislation mandates that the Defense Department assess whether redeploying U.S. forces to NATO’s eastern flank is feasible in the event of any drawdowns.

But many of those provisions lack teeth, such as restrictions on the defense secretary’s travel budget, something a senior committee aide acknowledged Tuesday. The aide said lawmakers are expected to offer amendments to that effect next week.

2. They’re letting the White House fully assume reconciliation risks.

The NDAA text would authorize approximately $1.14 trillion in base defense spending, in line with the Trump administration’s request.

But the legislation doesn’t touch the $350 billion the White House is trying to get through a party-line reconciliation process. Lawmakers largely avoided mixing the two funding streams, the senior committee aide said.

Instead, the panel approached its NDAA on the assumption that Congress would pursue a defense reconciliation package, something senior GOP lawmakers have warned may not be possible.

3. They have concerns about the development of the Trump-class battleship.

The bill would slow-walk construction of the proposed Trump-class battleship, a warship that would serve as the centerpiece for the president’s so-called “Golden Fleet.”

While the plan would authorize the full $1 billion DOD requested in advance procurement funding for the first Trump battleship, committee leaders added a hurdle to the contracting process.

Before proceeding with a construction contract, the Navy would be required to certify that the battleship’s planned systems have reached “a sufficiently mature technology readiness level.”

4. They’re skeptical about DOD pursuing more private equity stakes.

Lawmakers want to see the Pentagon use “other tools” to expand the missile propulsion business, following scrutiny of DOD’s plans to take a $1 billion equity stake in solid-rocket-motor maker L3Harris.

Such investments, a senior committee aide said, are useful in areas like critical mineral refining and processing, places where an industry didn’t already exist.

But the committee “remains concerned” about their use in the solid rocket motor space, according to the bill text.

5. They’re overriding parts of the Pentagon’s original procurement plans.

The proposal redirects $1.2 billion more toward procurement, above and beyond what the Pentagon requested for some programs.

For example, the bill would authorize $500 million in incremental funding for a second Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. That’s a big deal for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and other lawmakers.

The draft plan would also significantly increase funding for two legacy Army helicopter programs. The Army sought to cut those buys in the budget, but the text would fund an additional six Black Hawks and seven Chinooks.

— Briana Reilly

HAWKEYE STATE

Iowa’s GOP congressional hopefuls stick with Trump

BETTENDORF, Iowa — Democrats are trying to tie Iowa Republicans to President Donald Trump, betting that the president’s sagging approval ratings will doom the GOP this fall. But Republicans say running alongside Trump, who won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, suits them just fine.

At a Tuesday evening rally in the eastern part of the state, Reps. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) both proudly hailed their alliances with Trump.

Hinson is running for the state’s open Senate seat, while Miller-Meeks is seeking a fourth term in the toss-up 1st District. The Iowa primary is June 2.

For Miller-Meeks in particular, tying herself to Trump may be a savvy strategy. Last cycle, Miller-Meeks survived a surprisingly spirited right-wing primary challenge from David Pautsch, who got 44% of the vote. This year, Pautsch is running again, but Trump endorsed Miller-Meeks early in the cycle.

“We have a primary, and you all know that. And President Trump endorsed me, even knowing that,” Miller-Meeks told the crowd on Tuesday.

After the event, we asked Miller-Meeks her take on Democrats trying to connect Republicans to Trump.

“Republicans are going to be tied to the president regardless,” Miller-Meeks responded. “It’s up to each and every individual to distinguish why they should be reelected.”

In 2024, Miller-Meeks won reelection by a fifth of a percentage point over Democrat Christina Bohannan while Trump carried the seat by eight points. Bohannan is running again this fall.

The Senate. Hinson, who’s the presumptive GOP Senate nominee, said she enjoyed “the great privilege of being endorsed by our president, Donald J. Trump. He got behind our campaign that very first week we launched, because he knew that he needed a fighter.”

In our conversations with the Democratic primary contenders — Zach Wahls and Josh Turek — both accused Hinson of being too close to Trump.

– Max Cohen

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What we’re watching

House. The House is out.

Senate. The Senate is out.

Washington. President Donald Trump will participate in an 11 a.m. Cabinet meeting at the White House.

AND THERE’S MORE

House Democrats received good news on two redistricting fronts Tuesday, although one may be only a temporary reprieve.

The South Carolina Senate rejected an opportunity to get rid of iconic Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn’s (S.C.) House seat, a huge win for him and House Democrats. Twelve Palmetto State Republicans voted with all Democrats to reject the redistricting effort. The state senators then voted to adjourn until June 10, effectively ending the chances of eliminating Clyburn’s seat until 2028. The 85-year-old Clyburn said he would still fight on and is running for an 18th term in Congress.

In Alabama, a three-judge federal panel rejected a GOP effort to draw out a majority-minority seat, arguing the proposed Republican map “intentionally discriminated based on race.” This comes despite the Supreme Court’s Callais decision, which struck down Section Two of the Voting Rights Act. Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall immediately appealed the decision to the Supreme Court.

Mods news. The Problem Solvers Caucus tasked 10 members with developing a bipartisan response to the redistricting wars, worried that they threaten swing-district representation and centrist policymaking.

Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.) and Ed Case (D-Hawaii) are co-chairing the new working group, with Reps. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) and Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) serving as vice chairs. Problem Solvers leaders are proposing tying election-related federal grant funding to anti-gerrymandering reforms.

Progressive news. The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC is endorsing surgeon Adam Hamawy in the crowded Democratic primary for retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman’s (D-N.J.) district.

Campaign news. Former DNC Chair Tom Perez is endorsing D.C. mayoral hopeful Kenyan McDuffie. Perez worked with McDuffie in the Obama administration.

“When I led the Civil Rights Division, we hired Kenyan because he was a hard-working person whose values aligned with President Obama’s values,” Perez said in a statement. “He worked to root out police misconduct and abuses in hospitals, nursing homes, and other places where vulnerable people were living.”

— John Bresnahan, Max Cohen and Laura Weiss