Trump's shocking admission about 2026

IN THIS EDITION

Midterms? Who cares about those?!

Reconciliation divides Iowa’s battle for House seat

Next stop for war powers: SCOTUS?

Vault: Finance is in for an overhaul

What we’re watching

THE TOP

Midterms? Who cares about those?!

Happy Thursday morning.

President Donald Trump made a startling admission on Wednesday as he met with his Cabinet.

“I don’t care about the midterms,” Trump told reporters when asked about the Iran war and the slow-moving negotiations to end the conflict.

“Look what happened last night. That was a preview of the midterms,” Trump added, pointing to the overwhelming defeat of incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn of Texas by scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate Republican runoff. GOP leaders fear Paxton’s victory puts Texas in play this November, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars.

Yet what Trump doesn’t seem focused on enough is restoring Americans’ faith in the U.S. economy. And that’s a huge political problem for both GOP congressional leaders and vulnerable Republicans as they try to save their endangered majorities. Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune don’t say it publicly. But privately, it alarms the Republican leadership.

Trump’s poll numbers on the economy — by far the top issue this year — have collapsed. Some recent polls had him under 30%, an absolute disaster for Republicans.

Consumer confidence has hit record lows as well. Americans are cutting back on spending as they struggle with rising gas prices and interest rates, even as Wall Street notches record highs. The number of Americans struggling to put food on the table is growing.

Trump and Republicans will get more critical news on the inflation front today. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the April 2026 personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data this morning — the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.

Analysts expect the PCE data to come in well above the Fed’s target rate, with soaring gas prices being a major factor. The Fed may be forced to raise rates this year despite the president’s push to lower them.

Yet Trump has repeatedly made clear that his agenda — Iran, the immigration crackdown, massive military spending, the hundreds of millions of dollars for White House ballroom security, the “anti-weaponization” fund for his political allies, UFC fights, the Reflecting Pool, triumphal arches and Indy cars — is what he’s spending his time on.

“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” Trump said just two weeks ago, another stunning comment that Democrats have seized on. “I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing — we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.” Americans are overwhelmingly opposed to the Iran war, according to recent polls.

Thune and other GOP leaders clearly see the need to talk about the economy despite Trump’s comments.

“We need to ensure that we succeed [in Iran],” Thune told Hugh Hewitt on Wednesday. “And then also at the same time, prove that we can do two things at one time and focus clearly on the economic issues that I think are going to be front and center for a lot of the American people when they vote.”

Ninety-nine problems. As Trump fixates on everything but cost-of-living issues that vulnerable Republicans desperately want to address, the GOP is running out of time to change course. The House and Senate have long recesses planned in August and October, as well as a July 4 break. Mixed in there is the FISA reauthorization deadline in June, two reconciliation bills Republicans want to pass and a government funding deadline on Sept. 30.

Meanwhile, GOP leaders are stuck battling Democrats’ near-constant Iran war powers votes. They are also struggling to pass a GOP-drafted reconciliation bill that funds ICE and Border Patrol, a measure intended to unite Republicans. That immigration enforcement package is stuck in the Senate thanks to GOP opposition to the “anti-weaponization” fund.

There’s been bipartisan work on an affordable housing bill — a rare glimmer of hope to do something about affordability — but it’s also caught up in a House-Senate standoff.

Trump’s Iran quagmire. U.S. forces attacked Iranian sites again on Wednesday. This came after Iran reportedly launched drones against American bases, including in Kuwait. This is the second such U.S. attack in a few days, a sign of how fragile the ceasefire with Iran is.

Iran will be center stage on Capitol Hill next week. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Appropriations Committee next Tuesday, plus the House Foreign Affairs Committee next Wednesday.

Trump’s GOP power. Trump isn’t done flexing his political muscle in Senate Republican primaries either, which just makes Thune’s job even tougher. Look at what’s happening in the Georgia Senate GOP runoff between hardline Republican Rep. Mike Collins and Derek Dooley, a former football coach backed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp.

The controversial, MAGA-centric Collins has hired several Trump campaign aides, including pollster Tony Fabrizio, a sign that the president may back Collins, per Axios. But Collins is seen by many GOP insiders as a weaker general-election opponent against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.

— John Bresnahan, Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman

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THE HOUSE MAP

Reconciliation divides Iowa’s battle for House seat

CORALVILLE, Iowa — In the toss-up race for Iowa’s 1st District, the battle for control of the House is playing out through the lens of dueling views on the GOP’s signature reconciliation package.

For Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), a three-term incumbent who won reelection by just 799 votes in 2024, the One Big Beautiful Bill is an economic booster that cuts out “waste, fraud and abuse to strengthen and preserve Medicaid.”

Miller-Meeks is also touting the expansion of the child tax credit, now referred to by the GOP as the Working Families Tax Cut.

But in the eyes of Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, the legislation has devastated healthcare for Iowans struggling to make ends meet.

“Miller-Meeks has voted to cut Medicaid for over 100,000 Iowans and voted to discontinue the ACA subsidies, which are now driving up the cost of premiums every month by two and three times,” Bohannan told us in an interview at her campaign headquarters.

Bohannan, a University of Iowa law professor who served in the state legislature, has lost to Miller-Meeks the past two cycles. In her third try for a House seat, Bohannan predicts that anger at Miller-Meeks’ voting record will lead to the incumbent’s downfall, citing the Republican’s support of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the Iran war.

“People are very clear-eyed now about how she has gone completely Washington, D.C., and she is listening to her party bosses,” Bohannan said of Miller-Meeks. “It’s going to be very difficult for her to try to justify some of these terrible votes.”

Iowa’s 1st District voted for Trump in 2024 by eight points, but Miller-Meeks is no stranger to incredibly tight races. In 2020, Miller-Meeks won the seat by just six votes in one of the closest House elections ever.

The GOP messaging. During a Tuesday rally in Bettendorf, Iowa, Miller-Meeks hammered Bohannan as a left-winger who’s out of touch with the district. This is the playbook that Speaker Mike Johnson has suggested in D.C. Johnson argues the election is a choice between Republicans, who he views as common-sense stewards of governance, and Democrats, who support extreme policies.

“[Bohannan] supported defunding the police. She supported abolishing ICE. She voted to tax seniors’ retirement income,” Miller-Meeks said. “She voted to have Medicaid fund sex change operations.”

Bohannan’s response is also lifted from her party’s playbook: Republicans are trying to distract from abysmal economic conditions by bringing up ancillary issues.

“’I’d be surprised if anybody’s taking that kind of stuff seriously at a time when their groceries are sky high and premiums are sky high,” Bohannan responded.

As we reported on Wednesday, Miller-Meeks is tying herself closely to Trump as she seeks to shore up support among her conservative base.

While Bohannan blames the White House for high gas and fertilizer prices, Miller-Meeks pivots to former President Joe Biden’s tenure.

“We know that farmers were struggling all the way back to 2023 with high input costs. Why? Because the Biden administration drove up prices and drove up inflation. They did no trade deals for four years,” Miller-Meeks said.

Leadership watch. We asked Bohannan if she would back House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for Democratic leader if she won.

“I don’t know yet. I haven’t made that decision,” Bohannan responded. “I want to get elected first.”

Bohannan said she’s most focused on making sure all congressional leaders pay attention to the issues facing rural America.

— Max Cohen

DEFENSE

Next stop for war powers: SCOTUS?

Republicans have had it with Democrats’ unending forcing of war powers votes related to the war in Iran. Some want President Donald Trump’s administration to challenge the law in court.

In recent months, while covering the congressional debate, half a dozen Republicans — often unprompted — have raised the possibility of going after the underlying 1973 law in court. Trump’s given no indication this is happening, but multiple senior officials have made clear they see the statute as unconstitutional.

“I don’t think the constitutionality of that has been tested,” said Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “I think it will probably be tested.”

Members of Congress have initiated eight lawsuits seeking to force presidents to comply with the 1973 War Powers Resolution, according to the Congressional Research Service. But the courts have so far skirted the issue by ruling that the disputes are political matters to be resolved outside the courts.

“They may challenge it right over there in the Supreme Court,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said. “Every president since [Vietnam] has always at least verbally challenged the constitutionality of it. And I wouldn’t be surprised if this administration did that.”

The GOP frustration comes as the Democratic strategy appears on the verge of bearing fruit.

The Senate voted for the first time to advance an Iran war powers resolution earlier in May with the support of four Republicans. More votes are expected after recess. The House abandoned a vote that appeared destined to pass amid GOP attendance woes just before lawmakers left town.

A White House official said administrations from both parties have abided by the statute without conceding its constitutionality to ensure good relationships with Congress.

“That does not mean that any such administration felt that it is bound by the [law],” the official said. “Nor does it stop the president from ordering a different course when he deems necessary to protect national security.”

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly added that Trump maintains the Operation Epic Fury — the U.S. war with Iran — has “concluded” and the administration is in “full compliance” with the war powers resolution. This comes despite continued U.S. attacks on Iran and a naval embargo of Iranian ports.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has blasted the law as “unconstitutional, 100 percent.” Vice President JD Vance called it “fundamentally a fake and unconstitutional law.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Trump has “all the authorities” necessary to restart operations in Iran without Congress.

Another approach. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who’s long derided the war powers statute as unconstitutional, urged Trump to simply ignore the War Powers Resolution. Graham said Congress could — and should — try to defund military operations if lawmakers object to them.

“I’ve got no problem with any member of Congress trying to defund a military operation they think is bad,” he said. “I’ve got a ton of problems with 535 of us trying to be commander in chief every 60 days.”

— Anthony Adragna

VAULT

Vault: Finance is in for an overhaul

Senate Finance Committee Republicans are in for massive change next Congress when more than one-third of the GOP ranks on the panel could turn over.

The wave of Republican exits from one of Congress’ most powerful committees — charged with everything from taxes to healthcare — could leave about five sought-after seats up for grabs.

The turnover is partly a product of President Donald Trump’s campaign against GOP incumbents he deemed disloyal. Senate Finance Committee members John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.) lost primaries to Trump-backed challengers. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) decided not to seek reelection after clashing with Trump over the One Big Beautiful Bill.

Plus, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), another tax writer, is retiring. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), who joined the Finance Committee in 2023, is running for Tennessee governor.

Who we’re watching. Senate Republicans dole out committee assignments through a mix of leadership decisions and seniority. Finance’s wide jurisdiction over tax, trade, healthcare and Social Security always makes it a hot pick.

Tax watchers see Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), Ted Budd (R-N.C.), John Curtis (R-Utah) and Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) among potential GOP contenders for a seat. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) expressed interest in joining Finance in the past. But it’s still early, so it’s unclear which committees some senators will ultimately vie for this time.

With the scale of turnover, the tax world is also eyeing potential newcomers, though it’s very difficult to get on Finance without more seniority. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), the frontrunner for Oklahoma’s open Senate seat, currently serves on the Ways and Means Committee and has been very tax-focused during his time in Congress. But Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) is on Finance, and two senators from the same state typically can’t both serve on the prestigious panel.

Also, former Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.), who was on Finance, is attempting a comeback bid in New Hampshire.

It’s unclear how many open seats Republicans will have to fill. The total number of GOP spots on Finance will depend on several factors, including whether Republicans can hang on to their Senate majority and the margin.

The other side of the aisle. Senate Democrats were in a similar position the last go-around, when six of their 14 members exited.

Democrats could see two departures next Congress: Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) isn’t seeking reelection, and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) is running for Colorado governor.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is running against Sen. John Husted (R-Ohio) and could return to the Finance Committee if he wins.

— Catherine Leffert and Laura Weiss

📆

What we’re watching

House. The House is out.

Senate. The Senate is out

Washington. President Donald Trump will pre-tape an interview at 10 a.m. At 2 p.m., Trump will participate in “signing time.” At the same time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will brief reporters in the briefing room.

– Jake Sherman