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The 5 questions Hill Republicans should ask Trump

House GOP readies for Garland vote

The Vault: Viewers’ guide to a long, long day

Brown, Mace and Timmons emerge victorious

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The 5 questions Hill Republicans should ask Trump

Happy Wednesday morning.

Former President Donald Trump will return to Washington tomorrow to meet with House Republicans at the Capitol Hill Club. That will be followed with a closed-door session with Senate Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Let’s be honest — these meetings are more for show than anything else. They’re private rallies for Trump, which suits him and GOP lawmakers just fine. You’ve been watching Trump since 2015 just like we have. Do you think Trump is going into these gatherings armed with a PowerPoint presentation and briefing books outlining the first six months of a new presidency? We don’t either.

But this is the first Trump meeting with Hill Republicans since his conviction in the New York City hush-money case. So it’s a big deal.

For their part, Senate Republicans are seeking a display of unity heading into an election in which they have a very good chance of winning a majority. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), who’s close with Trump, said he hopes the confab will help Republicans avoid “the bickering and fighting thing that we have [had] in the past.”

Senate Republicans will also have a new leader next year. If Trump is elected, he could have major sway over the outcome of that race.

Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson has been intent on laying the groundwork for the first 100 days of a possible Trump administration. Johnson will brief GOP senators today on his plans for using budget reconciliation to achieve a wide swath of policy initiatives.

Here are five questions GOP lawmakers should ask Trump. But we have a disclaimer: Trump is locked in a tight battle with President Joe Biden. House Republicans will be very lucky to have the majority in 2025. Senate Republicans have a great map, but nothing is guaranteed anymore. With that said, let’s go.

1) Will you take aim at the filibuster? Trump spent a lot of energy in his first term railing against the Senate’s 60-vote threshold for clearing legislation. We anticipate he’ll do the same if he’s elected again — especially when the filibuster inevitably is the reason why Republicans aren’t able to pass parts of his agenda.

As we wrote last month, Senate Republicans are adamant that they won’t give in to pressure to gut the legislative filibuster. All of the candidates for leadership roles in the conference say this as well.

But a GOP sweep of Congress would put this issue on the front burner. The key factor would be how big a majority Senate Republicans have.

2) What about the Trump tax cuts? The 2017 Trump tax cuts expire next year. Most budget analysts concede it has negatively impacted government revenue. Trump, though, has vowed to extend them if he’s in office.

Yet square this circle for us: How will Trump strengthen the military and achieve his other domestic priorities if he’s going to cut revenue even further? Especially with the federal government already running huge deficits. Even hardline Republicans might balk at the spending cuts Trump would need.

3) The debt limit. Thanks to Biden and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the debt limit has been suspended through Jan. 1, 2025. This raises the possibility that Congress may want to deal with the borrowing cap during the lame-duck session, depending on how the election shakes out.

Does Trump want this mess taken off his plate before the next Congress? Does Trump want to eliminate the debt ceiling once and for all? Trump discussed that when he was president.

4) How do you expect to handle Ukraine? A majority of the House GOP has fallen in line with Trump in opposing additional U.S. support for Ukraine. But early on in a new Trump presidency, he’d be faced with the issue once again. Trump has promised a quick diplomatic agreement to end the war. A large block of Republicans in both chambers, plus virtually all Democrats, still back Ukraine.

5) Are you open to an immigration deal or are you just going to start deporting people? Trump has said that he’d begin deporting millions of undocumented immigrants right away if he wins the White House. Is he serious about this? Or is Trump open to compromises that he’s floated in the past, such as beefed-up border security in exchange for some changes to the status of immigrants already in the country? This issue has come to define Trump and Republicans writ large.

Big tax news: Senate Finance Committee Democrats are set to meet next Thursday to discuss the upcoming 2025 tax debate, according to a source with knowledge of the plans. This will be a kickoff conversation for Democrats on how they want to approach the expiring Trump tax cuts. Finance Democrats will likely hold additional meetings this year.

Finance Republicans are setting up six working groups for the 2025 debate, as we scooped. House Ways and Means Committee Republicans have 10 “tax teams” already holding meetings and gathering feedback for the upcoming fight. But Democrats are taking a less public approach, and aren’t likely to set up the same sort of groups the GOP has established.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

DANGER!

House GOP readies for Garland vote

This week is all of a sudden shaping up to be a mess for House Republican leadership.

Speaker Mike Johnson’s team is struggling to corral the votes to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt for refusing to turn over audiotapes of President Joe Biden’s interviews with Special Counsel Robert Hur. Garland would be the third attorney general and fourth Cabinet official to be held in contempt by the House over the last dozen years.

Depending on who you talk to in the House GOP conference, Republicans have the votes and were moving ahead with the Garland contempt vote. Alternatively, we’ve been told by multiple sources that several Republican moderates remain undecided or no despite weeks of whipping by the leadership.

So it’s not clear that Johnson and top House Republicans will be able to hold the vote this week. One lawmaker suggested that Johnson will only be able to bring the Garland resolution up if enough Democrats are absent today.

The House GOP leadership also isn’t committing to bringing up a bill from Rep. Russell Fry (R-S.C.) that would shift criminal cases against former presidents from state court to federal court.

And there will be votes on a host of tricky amendments on the NDAA, measures that will split the House Republican Conference and guarantee that the Pentagon’s annual policy bill will be carried with only GOP votes.

Remember: Johnson has a bare-bones majority. Depending on absences, he may only be able to lose a couple of votes on any bill.

Garland. As we noted, there are House GOP moderates still on the fence regarding Garland. Members of the Republican Governance Group discussed the issue at their retreat Monday at the tony Salamander Resort in Middleburg, Va.

Members of the GOP leadership are concerned that if the effort fails on the House floor, it could hurt Republicans in any legal battle with the Justice Department over the Biden audiotapes.

The Republican leadership has put this bill on the floor schedule for today, but there’s a non-zero chance it gets punted.

The Trump bill. The House GOP leadership has been mulling putting a bill on the floor this week that would allow presidents and vice presidents to move state criminal and civil cases to federal court. This is in response to former President Donald Trump’s conviction on hush-money charges in New York. Johnson is an original cosponsor of this bill, which was introduced before he became speaker.

But let’s be clear: This bill has absolutely zero chance of passing the Senate, and it looks like it may not even pass the House. Moderates are the most vocal opponents here, concerned about the optics of changing the justice system to bend it to Trump’s will. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and David Joyce (R-Ohio) are among those with reservations about the bill.

The NDAA. The historically bipartisan Pentagon policy bill is again turning into a partisan exercise in the House.

The House Rules Committee has greenlit votes on a number of controversial amendments to the legislation, including Rep. Beth Van Duyne’s (R-Texas) measure that would ban the Pentagon from paying for abortions, and separate language from Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) that bars the Pentagon from “furnishing” gender transition surgery or hormone treatments.

All told, there were 350 amendments made in order to the NDAA. Not all will be subject to a recorded vote.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

The Vault: Viewers’ guide to a long, long day

Some days, the financial services and tax beats have a main event. Other days, there’s like four or five. Today is one of the latter ones.

Get out the dual monitors. Here’s what we’ll be tracking today.

FDIC redux: The Republican-led House Financial Services Committee isn’t done talking about the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s toxic workplace culture and outgoing Chair Martin Gruenberg.

Starting at 10 a.m., we’ll hear from a group of four witnesses that — as we scooped on Friday — won’t include Gruenberg. The panel will instead hear from FDIC board member Jonathan McKernan, acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu and Cleary Gottlieb partners Joon Kim and Abena Mainoo.

We expect Republicans to complain about the lack of a White House nominee to replace Gruenberg, although one appears to be coming as soon as this week.

Democratic staff, led by Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), continue to suggest that their side’s lawmakers should question the findings of the Cleary Gottlieb investigation, per a memo we obtained. When staff last suggested that approach in May, few lawmakers took them up on it. We’ll see if that changes today.

Chopra in the Senate: The Senate Banking Committee will host Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra at 9:45 a.m.

Chopra will make some news in his written testimony, pointing to reports that “large financial firms like PayPal and JPMorgan Chase are planning to use sensitive data about people’s income and spending to fuel surveillance-based targeting.”

“We are eager to work with all of you to put into place stronger protections against abuse and misuse of data,” Chopra will tell the Senate.

Spotlight on Wall Street’s taxes: Senate Budget Committee Democrats are getting in on the 2025 tax debate early. They will lay down a marker on the expiring Trump tax cuts with a hearing this morning on “making Wall Street pay its fair share.”

Here’s a taste of what Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) plans to say in his opening remarks about how Democrats should address taxes on wealthier households and corporations next year:

Fed day: The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next interest rate decision today at 2 p.m., followed by a news conference with Chair Jay Powell at 2:30 p.m. We previewed this in the Sunday Vault.

Since then, we’ve heard from a chorus of congressional Democrats asking the Fed to consider a rate cut. That now includes Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), the top Democrat on the House Budget Committee. Economists don’t think that’s going to happen this time around, but maybe in September.

We’ll be listening closely for areas where Powell and other Fed officials see pockets of weakness in the economy or any other sign of a slowdown. That would, in theory, make it more likely we see cuts sooner than later.

— Brendan Pedersen and Laura Weiss

Brown, Mace and Timmons emerge victorious

Here’s what we learned on Tuesday in key primary elections.

Sam Brown will take on Jacky Rosen in a top-tier Senate race.

Republican Sam Brown, who was backed by the NRSC and former President Donald Trump (albeit belatedly), won the Nevada GOP Senate primary. Brown will face Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) in a closely watched general election that will see loads of spending.

Brown beat Trump’s ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter and a handful of other more hard-right candidates.

Mace wins her primary handily.

Despite former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s best efforts, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) easily defeated primary challenger Catherine Templeton and advanced to the general election. Mace was one of the eight Republicans to vote to oust McCarthy last year and had drawn the ire of the former speaker.

But Mace dispatched Templeton and avoided a runoff in the process. A big factor was Trump endorsing Mace.

Timmons beats back a Freedom Caucus-backed challenger.

Hardline members of the House Freedom Caucus poured a lot of political capital into unseating Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.). But Timmons survived a primary challenge from the South Carolina Freedom Caucus Chair Adam Morgan. Timmons’ victory was another race where Trump backed the winner.

Armstrong wins the N.D. GOP gubernatorial primary.

Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) won the North Dakota gubernatorial primary and will almost certainly be the state’s next governor. Julie Fedorchak won the House Republican primary to succeed Armstrong. Trump endorsed both winning candidates.

Rulli squeaks out a surprisingly close win in Ohio.

The race to succeed former Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) in a ruby-red House seat shocked many. Republican Michael Rulli won by less than 10 points, a huge underperformance in a seat that backed Trump in 2020 by roughly 30 points.

— Max Cohen

…AND THERE’S MORE

Whitmer backs Hertel: Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is endorsing Curtis Hertel — Whitmer’s former legislative affairs director — in the state’s 7th District. When he worked in the governor’s office, Hertel ushered through a number of Whitmer’s priorities like repealing a 1931 abortion ban, lowering the cost of prescription drugs and reforming Michigan’s tax code.

Hertel is running to succeed Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in a toss-up open seat that will be a must-win for Democrats if the party hopes to flip the House.

Whitmer and Hertel will appear together later today to announce the endorsement in front of reproductive rights activists.

Fetterman endorses in New Jersey: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) endorsed Sue Altman in her bid to knock off freshman Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.). In a statement, Fetterman called Altman a “proven fighter” who’s “ready to stand up to corruption on both sides of the aisle.”

Abortion rights launch in Wisconsin: Democrat Kristin Lyerly is going all in on reproductive rights in her bid to succeed former Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) in the state’s open 8th District seat.

Lyerly is an OBGYN in Wisconsin and has been one of the state’s most vocal abortion rights proponents following the Dobbs decision. Lyerly’s three-minute launch video highlights that she could be the only pro-choice OBGYN in Congress. Check it out here.

Lyerly faces an uphill battle to win the 8th District seat, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 by 15 points.

— Max Cohen

COCKTAILS & CONVERSATIONS

Tuesday night, we hosted communications staffers from the Hill at the Sazerac House for an evening of cocktails and conversations. Thank you, as always, to Elizabeth Wise and Laura Pinsky of Sazerac for hosting us.

Raising a glass: Tory Scordato and Deni Kamper of Sen. Chris Murphy’s (D-Conn.) office; Karli Plucker and Kyle VonEnde of Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers’ (R-Wash.) office; Tom Brandt of Sen. Jerry Moran’s (R-Kan.) office; Margaret Mulkerrin of Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Md.) office; Benny Stanislawski of Rep. Ritchie Torres’ (D-N.Y.) office; Amanda Critchfield from the Senate Finance Committee; Kemi Giwa from the House Financial Services Committee; and Michaela Johnson of Rep. Debbie Dingell’s (D-Mich.) office, among many others.

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