A short but busy week in the Senate

IN THIS EDITION

Reconciliation hits critical phase with Finance text expected out today

Messy GOP primary looms in Cuellar’s district

The Vault: The tobacco tax fight

What we’re watching

Unrig Our Economy goes after Kean, Bacon

THE TOP

Reconciliation hits critical phase with Finance text expected out today

Happy Monday morning.

The Senate is in session, and the House is beginning a weeklong recess. President Donald Trump is attending the G7 summit in Alberta, Canada.

It’s a short week for the Senate given the Juneteenth holiday. Senators will break for the long weekend on Wednesday afternoon.

Senators will get a security briefing from the sergeant-at-arms and U.S. Capitol Police on Tuesday morning at the request of Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

This is in response to the horrific assassination of former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark Hortman, on Saturday. Minnesota state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette Hoffman, were also shot by the alleged gunman, who surrendered Sunday night following a massive police manhunt.

House Republicans held a call on Saturday – scooped here – during which members said they needed security for their homes and fretted about their whereabouts being a matter of public record.

On reconciliation. In a matter of hours, Senate Finance Committee Republicans will release long-awaited legislative text for its portion of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

Senate Republicans will gather for a conference meeting in the Capitol after the 5:30 p.m. fly-in vote. Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) will give a presentation on the panel’s text.

The Finance Committee has jurisdiction over the thorniest policy debates consuming Republicans in the Senate, House and White House. It’s also the final Senate panel to release legislative text, which has to happen in order for the “Byrd Bath” to begin.

This will be a long week for the committees going through the “Byrd Bath.” The panels must clear each provision with the Senate parliamentarian under the Byrd Rule, which controls the reconciliation process. Finance isn’t likely to start the formal Byrd review until later this week, at the earliest.

But a lot more needs to happen before the GOP reconciliation bill is ready for the Senate floor. Several provisions are expected to have placeholders while negotiations continue. In other words, it’s not just SALT that will be unfinished when the bill is released. So the whip job can’t start quite yet.

And even if it can pass the Senate, House passage would be far from certain. Trump will need to play a huge role here if he wants to avoid a ping-pong situation between the two chambers, which would only cause further delays.

Speaking of changes… We’re watching closely for what Finance does on the most controversial policies.

1) The deduction cap for state and local taxes could derail the entire reconciliation effort. Republican senators want to dramatically lower the $40,000 cap for people making up to $500,000 included in the House-passed bill. The House’s SALT caucus, however, has enough leverage to impose its will on reconciliation by voting against it. The question is whether these vulnerable House Republicans will use it. They swear they will.

2) Senate Republicans are planning to revise the House GOP rollback of some clean energy tax credits. Finance Republicans are considering making some phase-outs gentler and others more aggressive based on energy type.

Republican moderates in both chambers feel strongly about a slower energy credit wind-down. The House Freedom Caucus is adamant about big cuts quickly. We’ll see if Finance can walk that tightrope.

3) Finance is also responsible for overseeing Medicaid cuts in the bill. Several moderates have been wary of Medicaid cuts, especially the House bill’s crackdown on provider taxes. It’s a politically toxic issue for GOP centrists. But once again, conservatives are adamant about deep cuts.

We’re also watching how the spending balance shakes out in Finance’s bill. House fiscal conservatives are intent on tying the amount spent on tax cuts to achieving spending cuts.

Israel latest. The war between Israel and Iran enters its fourth day as missiles and airstrikes continue across the two countries. Israeli forces said they struck the Quds Force command center in Tehran. Iranian missiles struck Tel Aviv and Haifa, killing at least eight people and drawing Israeli threats of retribution.

There’s no sign of any imminent diplomatic end to the conflict, which began with a stunning Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Reuters reported Sunday that Trump “vetoed an Israeli plan in recent days to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,” citing unnamed U.S. officials. Other news organizations also reported on the Ali Khamenei assassination plan and Trump’s opposition to the move.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) is unveiling a war powers resolution that will force the Senate to vote on whether the U.S. should be engaging in hostilities with Iran. The resolution wouldn’t prevent the president from defending U.S. citizens and assets in the region. Kaine said he’s concerned the “escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran could quickly pull the United States into another endless conflict.”

Separately, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is in the region this week for a multi-country CODEL sponsored by the Atlantic Council. The trip includes Reps. Jimmy Panetta (D-Calif.), Zach Nunn (R-Iowa), Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.). It’s unclear whether the group can actually make it to Israel later in the week as scheduled, given the security situation.

— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss and Jake Sherman

Join us on Tuesday, June 24, at 9 a.m. ET, for a conversation with Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.). Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer will sit down with Murphy to discuss the news of the day and the future of medicine as part of our series, “The Future of Medicine.” Afterward, John Stanford, founder and executive director of Incubate, and Janis Naeve, Venture Partner at Cota, will join Anna for a fireside chat. RSVP now!

THE LONE STAR STATE

Messy GOP primary looms in Cuellar’s district

South Texas is home to some of Republicans’ best chances to pick up a House seat in 2026. But it also may host one of their most problematic primaries.

A crowd of Republicans is lining up to challenge Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar for his Laredo-based district. Party strategists are closely watching what could become a messy four-way pileup. It could get even more troublesome as Republicans in Texas weigh a mid-decade redistricting push that would target Cuellar.

In a sign of just how quickly the region is trending from blue to red, two of the Republican candidates eyeing bids switched from being Democrats in recent years.

One of them is Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, who switched parties on Fox & Friends last December and has been taking steps toward a campaign. State Rep. Ryan Guillen, who announced he was switching parties in 2021, is also considering a run. At age 24, Guillen was one of the youngest members ever elected to the Texas legislature. Guillen lives in and represents Starr County.

Who Republicans don’t want: There’s former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas), who switched districts after losing twice to Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in a nearby seat. Few Republicans are eager to see her try again against Cuellar.

Nor do they want Jay Furman, the failed 2024 nominee who is running again. Furman has minimal ties to the district and admitted last cycle that he only moved there to challenge Cuellar.

For many years, the biggest threat to Cuellar, a conservative Democrat, came from a primary challenge. Cuellar nearly lost renomination in 2020. But the political lean of the region shifted as President Donald Trump surged in popularity between 2020 and 2024. Stalwart Democratic counties swung hard toward Trump, turned off by Democrats’ stances on social issues.

The Cuellar family is an institution in the Laredo community. The Texas Democrat’s brother is a sheriff and his sister was the tax assessor-collector. But Cuellar is vulnerable in 2026.

Looking ahead: Cuellar was indicted last year on federal bribery and corruption charges, though he has maintained his innocence. A federal judge recently denied Cuellar’s request to move his trial – expected to begin later this year – from Houston to Laredo.

Cuellar’s district moved a whopping 14 points to the right at the presidential level in November 2024. Former President Joe Biden won it by 7 points in 2020. But Trump carried it by 7 points in 2024, leaving Cuellar on perilous political footing.

The potential mid-decade redistricting push shows that Republicans are betting big on Texas to save their House majority. And unless Cuellar switches parties — or resigns — Republicans will need a top-tier recruit to oust him. A prolonged primary is not ideal.

Cuellar claims he isn’t worried.

“It really doesn’t matter to me,” Cuellar said when asked about the field preparing to take him on.

— Ally Mutnick

📆

What we’re watching

Monday: The Senate Intelligence Committee has a closed briefing at 4 p.m.

Tuesday: The Senate Appropriations Committee has hearings on the administration’s budget request for military construction and family housing and a closed hearing on the intelligence community’s budget request with DNI Tulsi Gabbard, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and NSA’s Acting Director Lt. Gen. William Hartman.

Wednesday: The Senate Armed Services Committee has a hearing about the Defense Department’s budget request, featuring Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth; Gen. Daniel Caine, the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Bryn Woollacott MacDonnell, the Pentagon’s acting comptroller.

Senate HELP has a hearing on several nominees, including former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito’s (R-N.Y.) nomination to be inspector general of the Labor Department.

Senate Judiciary will hold a hearing titled: “Unfit to Serve: How the Biden Cover-Up Endangered America and Undermined the Constitution.”

Senate Appropriations will hold a hearing about the Army’s budget request with Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll and Gen. Randy George, the Army’s chief of staff.

— Jake Sherman

THE AIRWAVES

Unrig Our Economy goes after Kean, Bacon

News: Liberal outside group Unrig Our Economy is running two new ads targeting vulnerable House Republicans on Medicaid. The ads, part of a long-term $10 million ad buy, go after Reps. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.).

The Kean ad is a 30-second TV spot featuring a constituent concerned about her family member’s well-being.

“I never expected to be in the position of having to worry about what happens to my mother-in-law if Medicaid ends,” the woman says. “She did everything right. But she didn’t plan for Congressman Tom Kean Jr. to cut Medicaid.”

In a new radio ad running in Nebraska, a local nonprofit leader criticizes Bacon for supporting the House GOP reconciliation bill. Bacon’s constituent says the reconciliation package will lead to thousands of people losing health care.

“Don Bacon is walking around North Omaha parades with the same people that he’s leaving behind,” the woman says in the ad.

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS

CLIPS