Is the July 4 deadline still doable?

IN THIS EDITION

Is the GOP’s July 4 deadline still in play?

John who? Texas GOP skirts Cornyn endorsement

Iran War Powers resolution likely to fail

The Future of Energy: The State of Play

Dunham to take over American Investment Council

THE TOP

Is the GOP’s July 4 deadline still in play?

Happy Friday morning.

Here’s a question many Republican senators are seriously pondering this morning: Is it still possible for the GOP-controlled Congress to send a reconciliation bill to President Donald Trump’s desk by July 4?

The short answer is yes, it is. But with each passing day, Senate Republican leaders are being dealt new setbacks while making limited headway on the biggest remaining hang-ups.

President Donald Trump has been phoning individual GOP senators, and he met separately Thursday with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson. Senators who’ve spoken with Trump say he’s frustrated with the glacially slow Senate movement on the massive tax and spending package, the centerpiece of his legislative agenda.

Thune frequently brands Trump as “the closer” for Senate Republicans, but one key holdout said they’re far from the point when Trump will be needed to help close a deal.

“It’s not worth the president’s time, I think, to engage at that level,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said of a potential Trump meeting with Senate Republicans. “But he’s a good closer, so I think at some point we’ll probably need his help.”

The Senate won’t begin voting on the massive reconciliation package until Saturday at the absolute earliest. And even that’s optimistic, GOP senators said. Thune continues to insist they’re on track.

“We’ll have you out of here by the Fourth of July,” Thune told reporters.

Meanwhile, the Senate parliamentarian has either knocked out or forced Republicans to change significant provisions in the bill, including ones meant to generate billions of dollars in crucial savings to help offset tax cuts and keep fiscal hawks happy.

The parliamentarian knocked out more provisions late Thursday night, including on gun silencers and religious carveouts from the increase in the college endowment tax.

Key issues. The biggest question mark remains the Senate’s drastic crackdown on Medicaid provider taxes and an accompanying stabilization fund for rural hospitals that many GOP senators are demanding.

Elizabeth MacDonough, the Senate parliamentarian, determined that the provider tax limits don’t comply with the chamber’s reconciliation rules, sending Republicans scrambling. The ruling centered around the provider tax freeze in the bill rather than the Senate’s more drastic constraints for Medicaid expansion states, according to two sources with knowledge of the decision.

Senate GOP leaders believe they can come up with a fix that passes muster with MacDonough. GOP aides for the Senate Finance Committee are working to get back in front of the parliamentarian as soon as possible to argue over new provider tax language.

Yet Senate Republican leaders acknowledged during a closed-door lunch meeting on Thursday that even this won’t solve their biggest problem with the Medicaid cuts, as we scooped. The real issue, GOP leaders said, is that they don’t yet have 50 votes to begin the floor process.

What’s more, key senators signaled Thursday they still have very few details on the hospital fund. Republican leadership proposed $15 billion, but that’s not enough for most of the holdouts. Plus, GOP senators have been discussing potentially delaying the timeline for the harsher provider tax limits.

Republicans notched a key win Thursday, though, on a plan to force states to take on more SNAP costs. This is a critical spending cut that Republicans had to tweak after the parliamentarian ruled out initial language.

Trump’s role. Trump has told multiple GOP senators privately that he prefers the House’s provider tax framework, which is much less drastic than the Senate’s version. During Thursday’s lunch, according to multiple attendees, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) recounted Trump telling him: “What the fuck are you guys doing?”

But Trump hasn’t said any of this publicly. Tillis says he’s operating under the assumption that Trump “supports the Senate’s mark” on provider taxes, despite having not heard from the president directly.

In private, Thune has stood by the Senate’s approach on provider taxes and has insisted that the House will accept whatever the Senate passes, as we’ve reported. When senators have urged a return to the House’s framework, Thune has consistently responded by noting this would net a lot less in necessary savings.

“I think he wants us to do what we can do to get him a bill,” Thune said of Trump’s position shortly after meeting with the president Thursday afternoon.

The House. House Republicans are watching all of their Senate GOP counterparts’ moves and already squabbling over how spending cuts, IRA clean energy credit repeals and SALT are landing.

There’s been a flurry of negotiations over the last 48 hours trying to figure out a path forward on the state-and-local-tax deduction, in particular. House SALT holdouts went to the Treasury Department three separate times yesterday to meet with Secretary Scott Bessent and White House aides. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) has been involved as the main Senate negotiator.

The SALT talks seem to be getting somewhere. The blue-state Republicans once said they wouldn’t renegotiate the House deal, but now say they’re negotiating in good faith. At least one holdout is still digging in. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) publicly rejected an offer Thursday afternoon and refused to attend further meetings.

Senate Republicans need clarity on SALT fast to finalize text. Plus, whatever the Senate agrees to on SALT will add billions to the package’s price tag, which conservatives are eyeing closely.

— Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss and Samantha Handler

New! Join us on Thursday, July 10, at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.). Punchbowl News Founder Jake Sherman will sit down with Graves to discuss the news of the day and the revitalization of America’s air traffic control system. Afterward, Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, will join Jake for a fireside chat. RSVP now!

THE LONE STAR STATE

John who? Texas GOP skirts Cornyn endorsement

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) has spent decades in statewide elected office. But not a single Republican member of the Texas congressional delegation is willing to endorse him in his 2026 primary — at least not yet.

Cornyn is locked in the most grueling primary battle he’s faced since his 2002 election to the Senate. Public and private polls show him trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by a staggering margin. Republicans say they fear Cornyn is in grave political peril.

Yet despite his long tenure in D.C. and nearly winning the race for Senate majority leader in November, Cornyn’s colleagues have thus far indicated little interest in showing support for the dean of their delegation.

Here’s a flavor of what Texas Republicans said when asked if they planned to endorse:

– Rep. Brian Babin (R-Texas): “I’m staying out of that. I don’t know much about that.”

– Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas): “Oh goodness, no. We don’t even know who’s running, who’s in, who’s out.”

– Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Texas): “Well, Ken Paxton is a dear friend.”

– Rep. Randy Weber (R-Texas): “Why should I?”

Sitting senators often have the support of their colleagues from their home state, even for a primary. But Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said he plans to stay neutral. Meanwhile, Reps. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) and Troy Nehls (R-Texas) have backed Paxton.

When asked about a lack of endorsements, Cornyn said he hasn’t asked any of the Texas House Republicans for their support.

“Everybody who has to run in their own primary usually doesn’t want to alienate half of their voters,” Cornyn said. “I understand that. So I’m not putting anybody in that spot.”

Among the other Texas Republicans we talked to who said they would not yet endorse: Reps. Pete Sessions, Nathaniel Moran, Chip Roy, August Pfluger and Dan Crenshaw.

Reps. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) and Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is considering joining the Senate race, too, declined to comment.

Cornyn’s camp said that candidates in Texas rarely issue endorsements before the filing deadline. Cruz endorsed Cornyn’s 2020 bid in 2018. And Cornyn endorsed Cruz’s 2018 bid in 2017.

As the primary draws closer, some of these members may get off the sidelines and back Cornyn.

Cornyn’s reelection campaign has gotten public support and donations from Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Majority Whip John Barrasso, Republican Conference Chair Tom Cotton, NRSC Chair Tim Scott and a number of his Senate GOP colleagues. This includes conservatives like Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.).

Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) has also donated to Cornyn’s reelection campaign through his leadership PAC.

A growing problem. This Senate race has turned into a massive headache for Republicans. Paxton is loved by the far-right in Texas, a dynamic that the polls reflect. But many GOP operatives fear that Paxton would alienate the middle-of-the-road voters needed to prevail in a general election.

Nobody in the Senate GOP hierarchy wants to spend tens of millions of dollars on defense in Texas – where a Democrat hasn’t won a Senate race since 1988 despite several close calls – when they’re trying to flip seats in Georgia and Michigan. Some Republicans wish a third candidate would run, but a three-way race might only open up a path for Paxton.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) wouldn’t answer a question from us about the Senate race. But he recently told Bloomberg Government that the “really brutal” race was “unfortunate.”

– Ally Mutnick and Mica Soellner

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

Iran War Powers resolution likely to fail

Sen. Tim Kaine’s (D-Va.) War Powers Resolution for Iran is likely to fail when senators consider the measure on Friday night as Republicans look to avoid a fight with President Donald Trump.

Kaine is pushing to ensure the War Powers Act is enforced so that any hostilities with Iran must be explicitly authorized by a declaration of war or an authorization of military force. But most Republican senators are closing ranks behind the White House and aren’t eager to aid Kaine’s effort.

Following a classified briefing on Thursday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the meeting revealed the need for Democrats to back Kaine’s resolution.

But at least one Democrat — Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) — will vote no. Fetterman is one of the chamber’s foremost Israel supporters.

“I want to make sure that I reserve the right for the president, Democrat or Republican, to do the kinds of things, just like President Obama had done in the past, or the one that I supported with what Trump did with Iran,” Fetterman said.

If every other Democrat in the chamber votes for Kaine’s bill, at least five GOP votes would be necessary for passage. Seven Republicans currently serving in the Senate voted for a similar Iran resolution back in 2020.

One of the seven, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), said on Thursday he’d vote against the resolution.

Many others in the group are being tight-lipped in the lead-up to the vote.

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who was deeply critical of Trump’s decision to strike Iran, wouldn’t tip his hand on how he would vote on the Kaine resolution. But Paul teased he would be making a floor speech on the subject on Friday. Paul said earlier this week that Trump should have come to Congress before striking Iran’s nuclear sites.

Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), who also backed the 2020 resolution, hasn’t said whether he’ll vote for it.

— Max Cohen

SPECIAL PROJECTS

The Future of Energy: The State of Play

ICYMI: We launched our latest editorial project, The Future of Energy, earlier this week.

The four-part series examines the state of the energy industry and the factors that will influence policy and power production for years to come.

The series comes as the Trump administration promises to unleash the United States’ full energy potential.

Our first segment, The State of Play, provides an overview of the growing challenges for energy production and what that means for policymakers.

Artificial intelligence, the electrification of much of the transportation industry and the increasing presence of robots in our economy will demand unprecedented levels of energy.

To tackle these issues, lawmakers will have to find a path forward on bipartisan priorities like permitting reform. They’ll also need to reach a compromise on divergent views about how to produce power in the 21st century.

You can read the segment here and don’t forget to listen to the podcast.

–Diego Areas Munhoz

… AND THERE’S MORE

Dunham to take over American Investment Council

News: Will Dunham, a former top aide to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, is the next president and CEO of the American Investment Council, the lobby for private equity firms.

Dunham is taking over for Drew Maloney, president and CEO of the Edison Electric Institute starting July 1.

Dunham was policy director to McCarthy, helping the California Republican notch several key bipartisan agreements. He is currently AIC’s executive vice president of government affairs.

AIC is a bit of a powerhouse lobby in Washington. Its board includes Wayne Berman of Blackstone, a longtime GOP powerbroker; Barrett Karr of Silver Lake, who served as McCarthy’s chief of staff; David Krone of Apollo, who was chief of staff to the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid; and Ken Mehlman of KKR, the former RNC chair and White House director of political affairs under George W. Bush.

Watchtower Party. Speaker Mike Johnson, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso all showed up to a summer reception at Ned’s Club for Watchtower Strategy, the public affairs firm run by McCarthy, Jeff Miller, Arthur Schwartz, Cliff Sims, Dan Conston and Brian Walsh.

Also in attendance: House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.), Sens. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.).

Trump officials who attended included: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, FBI Director Kash Patel, Education Secretary Linda McMahon, USTR Jamieson Greer, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz, IRS Commissioner Billy Long and Taylor Budowich and Nick Luna of the White House.

Ad news: Unrig Our Economy is again going after Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) on Medicaid.

A new ad, backed by a $500,000 buy, features a woman who runs a nonprofit organization in Omaha to help families in poverty.

“Don Bacon voted for the biggest cut to Medicaid in history to pay for tax breaks for billionaires,” the constituent says. “While families like the ones I work with cannot even afford the health care that they need.”

— Jake Sherman and Max Cohen

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