Leader Look: Sizing up Thune, Schumer

IN THIS EDITION

The Leader Look: Judging Thune and Schumer

Trump’s rescissions package loyalty test

Dem primary heats up in Colorado

The Future of Energy: A Leading Voice

Paxton raises $2.9M in Q2

THE TOP

The Leader Look: Judging Thune and Schumer

Happy Friday morning.

Now that the Senate is entering a somewhat calmer summer period, we thought it’d be a good time for a Leader Look at Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. This is a regular Punchbowl News feature. We’ll do Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries next Friday. Let’s get into it.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Passing the One Big Beautiful Bill was a massive feat that not only burnished Thune’s leadership credentials but also went a long way toward solidifying his relationship with President Donald Trump. The pair met in the Oval Office Wednesday night to talk about the 2026 elections, as we scooped in Thursday’s Midday edition.

Thune told us last week that reconciliation was “the most complicated thing I’ve ever tried to do.” Balancing the demands of his own conference while dealing with the House and Trump was difficult. At times, it was nearly impossible.

But even that may pale in comparison to what’s ahead.

Thune is already leaning hard into selling what Republicans see as the benefits of the bill — yes, even massive Medicaid and SNAP cuts — as Democrats are promising to center their 2026 messaging on it.

“We now have a finished product to get out there and sell, the individual components of which are incredibly popular,” Thune said, naming work requirements and rooting out waste and fraud. “Now we’ve got something that we can go out and actually make an argument about that I think is a winning argument.”

Yet there have been problems on the Senate recruitment front for Republicans, especially in New Hampshire and Georgia. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) is facing a serious primary challenge next year. GOP leaders also are hoping that Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) run for reelection.

On top of that, Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) decision to retire makes it more difficult for Republicans to hold that seat. Tillis is publicly railing against the reconciliation bill in ways that completely contradict Thune and other top Republicans.

Thune took concrete steps to mitigate the political fallout from cutting Medicaid. But he acknowledged to us that this is an issue Republicans are “pregnant” with.

In our interview, Thune argued that delaying the implementation of many of the Medicaid changes “minimized the political impact” for 2026. That theory will soon be put to the test.

Thune also needs to muscle through the White House’s $9 billion rescissions package. It’s a relatively small amount of money but a big Trump priority. (More on that below.) It will also set the stage for the coming FY2026 funding fight.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. It should be no surprise that Democrats — especially Schumer — see the Republican reconciliation bill as a political gold mine. But Democrats need to net four seats in 2026 to retake the majority, a tough undertaking even with the GOP recruitment issues.

An emboldened Schumer told us Thursday that the OBBB’s passage — especially the Medicaid cuts and reversal of clean energy tax credits — puts Republicans’ Senate majority at risk. Schumer said the GOP legislation placed additional states in play and helped with candidate recruitment, though he wouldn’t elaborate.

“It affects people right where it hurts — losing your health care. Horrible,” Schumer said. “Losing your job. Horrible. Costs going up dramatically because of this bill — and people will talk about it everywhere.”

Schumer pointed to Tillis as one of the most effective messengers against the GOP package. Tillis has been warning that the bill will harm Republicans in 2026, which is music to Schumer’s ears.

“You will see what he says [blasted out] all over the country, not just by us, but by other people too,” Schumer said. “He spoke truth to power.”

On Collins, Schumer disputed the idea that her vote against the OBBB will make it more difficult for Democrats to attack the veteran GOP senator in the same way. Schumer noted that Collins was a deciding vote on the motion to proceed that allowed the reconciliation bill to advance. Try explaining that to voters, however. Schumer also still needs a candidate in Maine.

While the poll numbers on reconciliation look promising for Democrats, Schumer faces a complicated situation later in the fall when dealing with a potential government shutdown.

Schumer has warned that an FY2026 funding deal is impossible if Republicans jam through a rescissions package on a party-line vote, arguing Democrats have shown good faith while GOP leaders and Trump are undercutting the process.

When asked if Democrats would walk away from government-funding negotiations if that happens, Schumer said, “Our goal is to pursue the bipartisan approps process.”

There was a lot of Democratic anger at Schumer earlier this year when he backed the GOP-drafted continuing resolution this spring, and the Sept. 30 funding deadline is a chance for a reset. It also happens to be Democrats’ only remaining leverage point this year.

And Schumer knows that a big swath of his caucus will be girding for a fight as Trump and OMB chief Russ Vought make unprecedented funding moves such as “pocket rescissions.”

Another challenge for Schumer is what to do about Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for NYC mayor. Schumer still hasn’t endorsed Mamdani. Republicans continue to hammer the 33-year-old Mamdani as a socialist and antisemite over his rhetoric toward Israel.

Schumer has long spoken out against antisemitism, including within his own party. But the internal NYC – and national – politics over Mamdani are difficult for both Schumer and Jeffries.

— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

Punchbowl News is hiring! We’re looking for a special projects reporter to join our growing editorial team. Do you love covering Capitol Hill? Can’t get enough of the high-stakes policy debates driving Washington? Find out more details and apply here.

FUNDING FIGHT

Trump’s rescissions package loyalty test

President Donald Trump has raised the stakes for next week’s Senate vote on a $9 billion-plus rescissions package, saying that any GOP senator who votes against cutting funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting won’t get his support.

“It is very important that all Republicans adhere to my Recissions Bill and, in particular, DEFUND THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING (PBS and NPR), which is worse than CNN & MSDNC put together,” Trump posted on Truth Social Thursday night.

“Any Republican that votes to allow this monstrosity to continue broadcasting will not have my support or Endorsement,” Trump added.

Trump’s comments complicate what’s already a difficult situation for several GOP senators over the rescissions package, which the Senate is expected to begin debating on Tuesday. Republican congressional leaders face a July 18 deadline to pass the measure.

The White House-authored package includes a $1 billion-plus cut to CPB, which helps fund NPR and PBS. The remainder of the rescissions package includes more than $8 billion in cuts to foreign aid, a top GOP target. (The State Department is expected to begin mass layoffs today as well.)

Some GOP senators oppose cutting CPB’s budget because of the important role that public radio plays, especially in rural areas. They’ve discussed amending the rescissions package to scale back the CPB reduction.

Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) also wants to protect funding for PEPFAR – the George W. Bush-era program designed to fight the global spread of HIV and AIDS.

Collins, though, hasn’t formally offered any changes yet as Senate GOP leaders try to figure out what Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought would accept. Vought is the driving force behind the rescissions package, part of a broader challenge by the Trump administration to Congress’ power of the purse.

GOP insiders suggested that Trump’s post is a signal that the White House won’t oppose protecting PEPFAR, as long as the public-broadcasting cut remains intact.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other top Democrats have warned that passage of the rescissions measure, even as an amended package, jeopardizes the whole appropriations process.

Looking ahead: There’s already big problems inside the Senate Appropriations Committee. The panel’s markup of the Commerce-Justice-Science bill blew up on Thursday over a dispute about the site for a new FBI headquarters. And it’s not clear if and when the CJS bill is going to get back on the panel’s radar.

But Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), top Democrat on Appropriations, is still looking to make a bipartisan deal with Collins.

That would give the Senate a united front against the White House and House Republicans, who are drafting FY2026 bills based on Trump’s “skinny budget.” That proposal calls for more than $160 billion in cuts to non-defense discretionary spending, something that both House Democrats and the Senate oppose.

Despite the CJS fight, the Senate Appropriations Committee approved the Agriculture and Legislative Branch bills on Thursday by big margins.

We also expect at least one bill to be marked up in committee next week. Possibly something with broad bipartisan support like the MilCon-VA bill.

And there’s another issue that’s really important for appropriators – earmarks. If Congress again passes a CR this fall to fund federal agencies, then members and senators don’t get earmarks. Appropriators won’t like that at all.

For instance, the Ag bill approved on Thursday has $280 million in earmarks for senators in both parties, including Collins, Murray and Schumer.

– John Bresnahan

CENTENNIAL STATE POLITICS

Dem primary heats up in Colorado

Democrats are in for a highly competitive and messy primary to take on freshman GOP Rep. Gabe Evans in a crucial Colorado battleground district.

A half dozen Democrats, including former Rep. Yadira Caraveo, are vying for the nomination in Colorado’s 8th District so far. The competitive seat in the northern Denver suburbs will be one of the most expensive and closely watched House races in the nation.

Caraveo, who lost to Evans by about 2,500 votes last cycle, has been plagued by allegations of staff mistreatment. Caraveo has also spoken about her mental health struggles while in office.

So far, neither Democratic leadership, the DCCC or any Democrats in the Colorado delegation have backed Caraveo. And the House Republican campaign arm is hardly attacking Caraveo any more than her Democratic opponents.

Caraveo’s campaign has circulated polls showing she has a lead and dismissed coverage of her personal struggles.

“She opened up about her mental health issues because she wants to remove the stigma that still surrounds them and encourage people who are suffering to seek treatment,” said Jacob Barr, Caraveo’s campaign manager.

Zoom out: In addition to Caraveo, Colorado state Reps. Manny Rutinel and Shannon Bird, State Treasurer Dave Young, former Colorado teachers’ union head Amie Baca-Oehlert and local consultant John Szemler are running.

Many Colorado Democrats view 30-year-old Rutinel as the most progressive candidate in the race. Rutinel has a strong fundraising operation, raising over $1 million in Q1 and ending with nearly $660,000 in cash on hand. Caraveo had only $330 cash on hand at the end of March, although she didn’t formally launch a comeback bid until mid-April.

Bird has a track record of supporting bipartisan legislation in the state legislature. Young will also have strong backing from labor groups, which could attract both moderate and progressive voters.

The DCCC isn’t planning to get involved in the primary right now. Instead, Democrats are attacking Evans over Medicaid cuts and his support for President Donald Trump’s agenda.

GOP strategy. Evans has defended his vote for the GOP reconciliation bill and its Medicaid cuts. Evans has also played up his personal background as the grandson of Mexican immigrants.

“Democrats have a base problem and are in an all-out primary battle to the Left,” said Delanie Bomar, Evans’ spokesperson.

The primary will be in June.

– Mica Soellner

SPECIAL PROJECTS

The Future of Energy: A Leading Voice

ICYMI: The third segment of our series, The Future of Energy, published earlier this week and features a deep dive on power production with Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.).

Fleischmann is the chair of the House Appropriations subcommittee on energy and water development — and he also leads eight energy-related caucuses.

The Tennessee Republican talked with us about what a GOP-controlled Washington means for the future of fossil fuels, nuclear energy, tax credits and more. Under President Donald Trump, Fleischmann said the United States will adopt a renewed focus on coal and natural gas.

Check out the project here. And don’t forget to read our second installment, The Legislative Landscape.

– Ally Mutnick

THE CAMPAIGN

Paxton raises $2.9M in Q2

News: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will report raising $2.9 million during the second quarter of 2025 for his Senate bid.

Paxton launched a challenge against Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in early April and has consistently led Cornyn in public and private polling.

“Our voters have been excited to send John Cornyn packing for years, which is why he’s down over 20 points and his campaign is getting more and more desperate,” Paxton said in a statement.

Cornyn hasn’t disclosed his second-quarter fundraising totals yet. But a super PAC supporting Cornyn’s effort said it raised nearly $11 million.

Paxton’s fundraising news comes a day after his wife, Angela Paxton, announced that she was divorcing him on “biblical grounds.” Angela Paxton is a state senator representing the same state Senate district Ken Paxton held before he became Texas AG.

And as we reported in Thursday’s Midday edition, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate GOP campaign officials met with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Wednesday to talk about the 2026 races.

The Trump administration officials said they wanted to wait and see whether the polling gap between Cornyn and Paxton closes before deciding whether to engage.

More fundraising news. Fight for America PAC, a super PAC supporting Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), ended Q2 with $2.8 million banked. Schmitt is not up until 2028 but the group said it also plans to help Republicans retain the majority in 2026.

Frontline Rep. Derek Tran (D-Calif.) raised $830,000 in Q2 and has $1.1 million on hand.

– Ally Mutnick

MOMENTS

CLIPS