Showtime for Johnson: OBBB hits the House floor

IN THIS EDITION

Trump’s agenda faces a wary House GOP

Thune’s biggest win

GOP eyes limits on legal immigration

Mike Rogers’ crypto evolution

THE TOP

Trump’s agenda faces a wary House GOP

Happy Wednesday morning.

All of 2025 has been building toward this week for Speaker Mike Johnson.

The House Republican leadership is planning to push through the massive, multi-trillion dollar GOP reconciliation bill as early as today, despite serious doubts from moderates and conservatives.

It would be the culmination of months of work by House and Senate Republican congressional leaders and give President Donald Trump a signature legislative achievement, perhaps the biggest he’ll have during this second stint in the Oval Office.

The schedule — as it stands now — is to bring the House back at 9 a.m. today and vote as soon as possible.

Remember that the House Republican leadership team – Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer – are whipping this bill on an incredibly condensed timeline against lots of opposition. Can they even pass a rule? There’s some skepticism in the GOP leadership that they will.

Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) voted against the rule in the Rules Committee Tuesday night, a harbinger of what will be a tough floor fight over the next few days.

A wave of summer thunderstorms across the country have snarled flights into Washington since late Tuesday. The House GOP leadership is keeping a close eye on flight statuses and will make decisions partially based on how many members are in town. Johnson said on Fox News’ ”Hannity” Tuesday night that the vote could be delayed until Thursday.

The internal political dynamics. OK, so can House Republicans pass this bill? That’s a very good question. As it looks right now, the answer is no. But that’s an overly simplistic view of the situation.

Are wavering House Republicans really going to say no to Trump with his signature legislative bill on the House floor? Can Johnson set ‘em up so Trump can knock ‘em down? Here’s our Big Mad Index of the Republicans to watch on the bill.

There are two buckets of no votes that you should think about: the House Freedom Caucus, and then the rest of the GOP conference. Let’s start with the HFC.

Predictably, the hard-right faction is strongly opposed to the Senate-passed bill. Conservatives assert Johnson didn’t stay true to the House’s budget, which called for $2 trillion in spending cuts for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. Team Johnson thinks this is an incorrect read of the speaker’s pledge to House Republicans.

So far, a bunch of HFC members are saying they’ll vote no. Norman told us that he’s a no on the rule and on the bill. Roy expressed major concerns over projections that the package could add trillions of dollars to the deficit. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) said on local radio that he doesn’t believe the bill will “pass as is” and said he agreed with Elon Musk that the bill is “bad.”

Trump and Johnson got many of these Republicans to flip last time with the idea that the bill would get better. That string has run out.

The same skepticism runs through the rest of the GOP conference.

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who recently said he wouldn’t run for reelection, is being coy about his intentions.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) has problems with the deep Medicaid cuts in the bill. Valadao is from a swing district in California, and, quite frankly, he’s probably right to be skeptical of this bill from a political perspective.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), another Republican from a district that Trump lost, has concerns about cuts to IRA tax credits and Medicaid. Fitzpatrick is a team player, but this could be a tough bill for him to back.

Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) has been in talks with the Trump administration over his concerns with the bill.

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who is known to carefully mull over legislation, has problems with the Medicaid provisions.

Wisconsin GOP Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Glenn Grothman had problems with rural hospital cuts in the Senate package.

Newly elected Pennsylvania GOP Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Ryan Mackenzie both had Medicaid and IRA concerns. Rep. Mike Carey (R-Ohio) had issues with IRA credit repeals, as well.

We spoke to several people on the House GOP whip team Tuesday night who were expressing alarm about what they’re seeing on their whip cards. These sources said that they were racking up no’s from lawmakers who they didn’t expect would be opposed to the bill.

Inside the leadership’s strategy. They’ll use Trump to the extent needed, and their message is simple – despite what House Republicans hoped to see in this bill, this is what they face now. And it’s time to put it up for a vote.

There’s several other things to consider here. First, a pro-Trump super PAC is already running ads bashing Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) for repeatedly criticizing the bill. Secondly, Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R-N.C.) sudden retirement announcement after he too opposed the bill. Every rank-and-file Republican sees those two events and knows what it means for them.

Democrats’ warning. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told us in an interview that he’ll work to ensure the GOP bill would haunt “every single swing-seat Republican” who votes for it during the midterms.

Jeffries signaled that access to health care will be the most potent liability for the GOP. “The American people do not trust the Republican Party with respect to health care,” Jeffries said. Remember, Republicans lost the House in 2018 after merely attempting to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

“The whole enterprise is a toxic scheme, but it is clear that the attack on healthcare is probably the most reviled part,” Jeffries said.

But don’t expect a crazy long Magic Minute. The Democratic leader is expected to speak for approximately an hour tomorrow, according to a source close to Jeffries’ office.

— Jake Sherman, Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

Join us on Thursday, July 10 at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.). Punchbowl News Founder Jake Sherman will sit down with Graves to discuss the news of the day and the revitalization of America’s air traffic control system. RSVP here!

THE LEADER

Thune’s biggest win

We sat down with Senate Majority Leader John Thune as the Senate was about to pass President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill.” There were some surprises along the way that delayed final passage, but Thune notched by far his biggest legislative victory as Senate GOP leader on Tuesday night

You can read more from our interview here, focusing on how Thune got the bill over the finish line and how he dealt with one GOP senator’s vocal warnings about the political downsides of the bill. But there was a lot from our sit-down that we couldn’t get into in Tuesday’s special edition newsletter — so let’s dive in.

The North Carolina field. Thune wasn’t necessarily surprised that Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) decided to forgo a reelection bid in 2026. But Thune and many others were surprised that Tillis chose Sunday to announce it — in the middle of the reconciliation floor process and just hours after Trump essentially said he’d back a primary challenger to the veteran GOP senator.

Thune noted that he was just with Tillis last weekend to raise money in Chicago. Even then, Thune sensed that the North Carolina Republican “just hasn’t been all-in.” Indeed, that was an open secret in Washington. Thune said Trump’s social media posts on Tillis weren’t “the only thing,” but rather “part of a sequence of events.”

Tillis texted Thune on Saturday night indicating he was preparing to move forward with an announcement.

“I said, ‘Don’t do anything rash, in the heat of the moment’… But he decided to move,” Thune told us.

Thune sounded confident about Republicans’ ability to hold Tillis’ seat, noting that Trump has won North Carolina three times. He also said Republicans have “a really good bench down there.” Check out our story from Monday on the race to succeed Tillis.

“We’ll have good candidates and hopefully resources won’t be a problem. I’m sure the Democrats will target it,” Thune said. “We just need to get an electable candidate — somebody who can win not only the primary but the general.”

Tillis’ message was similar. While he didn’t commit to endorsing a successor, Tillis said he suspects Trump will play kingmaker but hopes the president chooses someone who can win.

Reconciliation 2.0? Speaker Mike Johnson has said he’s interested in taking another whack at budget reconciliation — something Congress can do at the end of the fiscal year. Johnson told Senate Republicans behind closed doors last week that he wants to tackle entitlement reform.

In the Senate, Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) has also expressed interest in this. But Thune was noncommittal. His message was simply, “We’ll see.”

The massive bill the Senate just passed “has a lot of the agenda in it,” Thune said, “but there are some other things that people would like to do that aren’t included in this. I’m certainly open to it.”

Thune also said it’ll depend on “how intensely” the White House and the president are interested.

— Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

HOUSE GOP

GOP eyes limits on legal immigration

In the wake of Zohran Mamdani’s stunning win in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary, Hill Republicans are pondering a new issue — restricting legal immigration.

Several conservatives have used Mamdani’s primary victory to argue that mass immigration is causing damaging cultural change, pointing to the 33-year-old’s political rise as an example. Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, was born in Uganda. Mamdani would become the first Muslim and Indian mayor of New York City if he wins the general election in November.

“We have fifty-one-and-a-half million foreign born people in this country,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told us. “You clamp down on illegal immigration, which is what the president is doing, but you need to limit, slash and refocus legal immigration… legal immigration is part of the problem.”

While the overall number of immigrants is the highest ever, it’s not a record as a percentage of the U.S. population. The difference now is where immigrants are coming from. In the past, there was mass European immigration. Now immigration is more skewed toward Asian, African and Central or South American migrants.

The Trump administration and Hill Republicans have made cracking down on illegal immigration a key priority in their legislative agenda. But with new calls to turn that focus on those immigrants lawfully entering the country, that can cause some headaches for GOP lawmakers from blue states and districts.

“If we don’t have more people, we have a declining population and an aging population and we need talent,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said. “Legal immigration is good.”

Yet in recent weeks, there’s been increased discussion on the topic, particularly among GOP hardliners and influential conservative commentators.

Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) received intense Democratic backlash after he posted a video of Mamdani eating rice with his fingers and said he should “go back to the Third World.”

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) also joined in, saying Congress must consider “not just ending illegal immigration, but also look at restricting our legal immigration system.”

House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) added that restrictions on legal immigration “might come up in the debate” as his panel prepares to take up H.R.2, House Republicans’ signature legislation, which includes several hardline border security measures.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) called Gill’s remarks “racist.” Any effort by Republicans to tighten legal immigration would also likely be swiftly rejected by Democrats.

White House moves: While President Donald Trump has focused on border security and illegal immigration restrictions, the administration has made changes to curb legal immigration too.

Among Trump’s earliest executive orders was halting all refugee admissions into the United States. The State Department also tightened its policies around mandatory in-person interviews to those applying for nonimmigrant visas.

Last month, the State Department enforced partial or full suspensions on visas for nationals from 19 countries, mostly in Africa or the Middle East. Trump argues these nations have exploited the U.S. visa system and allowing entry to these migrants could become a national security issue.

But Trump has also selectively allowed some foreigners into the country. Trump signed an executive order in February to resettle white South Africans over what the administration argues is racial discrimination they face back home.

Trump also proposed his “Trump Card” visa program aimed at attracting wealthy foreigners who can buy their right to live and work in the United States.

— Mica Soellner

CRYPTO WATCH

Mike Rogers’ crypto evolution

Crypto money is lining up behind former Rep. Mike Rogers’ (R-Mich.) second run for the Senate. But well before Rogers received a crypto PAC endorsement last month, the Michigan Republican warned that cryptocurrency was a dangerous force.

In a string of comments from 2017, Rogers repeatedly railed against Bitcoin as an unregulated facilitator for illegal activity.

“I’m not a big fan of Bitcoin,” Rogers said during a 2017 speech. “It’s primarily used in illicit trades… They use it in human trafficking. And every international organized crime event you can think of is using it.”

In a 2017 op-ed for the New York Daily News, Rogers laid out why Bitcoin is “so attractive to hackers, criminals and terrorists.”

Rogers’ crypto skepticism coincided with his post-House career as a cybersecurity expert. Rogers, one-time chair of the House Intelligence Committee, began hosting an online digital series delving into global cyber threats, including how Bitcoin could be exploited.

Grain of salt. Rogers’ comments came during a different epoch of crypto politics.

As an asset, Bitcoin was in its infancy until roughly 2020. In 2017, though, Bitcoin gained national prominence by growing in value from roughly $900 a unit in early 2017 to a peak of more than $19,000 in December before crashing back to Earth.

Rogers’ comments were a reflection of that time. Then, Rogers was a fierce critic of Bitcoin specifically and crypto broadly.

Now, Rogers is a crypto evangelist. Rogers teamed up with top crypto supporter Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) to write a Coindesk op-ed in support of the GENIUS Act, which would regulate stablecoins. Rogers also traveled to the Bitcoin 2025 Conference alongside Lummis.

In a 2024 op-ed, Rogers noted that as “crypto usage has risen, its use in money laundering has fallen precipitously.”

It’s important to note that supporters of the GENIUS Act argue that the bill will address concerns about crypto being a risky investment.

Last cycle, Rogers got slammed by heavy crypto PACs spending in support of his Democratic opponent, now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.). The Fairshake super PAC network spent more than $10 million backing the Michigan Democrat in 2024.

And Rogers certainly isn’t the only politician to evolve on crypto. President Donald Trump himself dismissed Bitcoin as a “scam” as late as 2021 before embracing the sector — and its considerable campaign finance war chest — in the summer of 2024.

— Max Cohen and Brendan Pedersen

THE CAMPAIGN

News: The Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ BOLD PAC is endorsing Adelita Grijalva in the special election to fill the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva’s (D-Ariz.) seat. Adelita is the daughter of the former member. Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez is Grijalva’s main competitor in the race.

Scoop: Brandon Riker, a Democrat challenging Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), reported taking in more than $900,000 during Q2. He raised $457,000 from some 3,600 donors. Riker is also matching that sum with a personal contribution.

… Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) raised more than $1.1 million in Q2. He has $1.2 million cash-on-hand.

… Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton raised more than $1 million for her bid for retiring Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D-Ill.) seat.

— Max Cohen, Mica Soellner and Ally Mutnick

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