3 things to watch as August nears

IN THIS EDITION

Approps, noms and the Fed: Washington’s week

The Vault: Gambling reversal gains steam

News: SLF goes after Cooper early in N.C.

What we’re watching

Unrig Our Economy puts four Texas Republicans on notice

THE TOP

Approps, noms and the Fed: Washington’s week

Happy Monday morning.

The Senate is in session this week, the House is on recess (and Senate staffers are so jealous). President Donald Trump is in Scotland today, where he’ll meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Let’s talk about three things this morning — appropriations, nominations and the economy. It’s going to be a big week on all three fronts. There’s other huge news out there — the latest twists and turns in the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, including Ghislaine Maxwell’s talks with the Justice Department, as well as possible new congressional maps in Texas.

1) Appropriations: Senate leaders hailed it as a minor breakthrough last week when senators voted overwhelmingly to begin debate on the FY2026 MilCon-VA bill, which came out of the Appropriations Committee with strong bipartisan support. But the issue still remains whether they can pass the bill and, if so, how long will it take.

The proposed MilCon-VA bill would increase spending by about 4% from last year thanks to a deal between Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the ranking Democrat. It also includes lots of earmarks, something appropriators want badly.

We scooped Thursday that Senate Majority Leader John Thune wanted to add the Agriculture and Commerce-Justice-Science bills to MilCon-VA as part of a broader package, but that was rejected by a half-dozen GOP senators. Thune tried the same with different funding bills included in a package, but is running into the same result.

Now, GOP leaders need to figure out whether there’s a path forward. That could mean promises of amendment votes. It could also mean a threat to suspend the rules and move forward with a minibus package despite objections. This rarely-used procedural method would ultimately require 67 votes. Collins was concerned about this approach when it was tried in 2023.

But this is a whole new set of circumstances for Collins who, as we scooped, accused a conservative senator of sexism last week over his frequent criticisms of her efforts to seek a bipartisan appropriations process.

Thune wants to pass as many funding bills as possible before Sept. 30 — not only to call Democrats’ bluff, but also to push the House to take up some of them. This could limit the impact of a shutdown or CR.

One more point: OMB Director Russ Vought is still warning that the White House may do “pocket rescissions” before the end of the fiscal year (rescind funds that haven’t been spent by the Sept. 30 deadline). There’s still talk of another rescissions package covering education funding, too. Either or both of these moves would destroy chances of a spending deal, meaning another CR or a shutdown.

2) Nominations: Thune has already teed up several nominees for votes this week, and more are coming. On top of that, we expect Thune to dangle a package of nomination votes to Democrats later this week that, if confirmed quickly, would spare senators from staying too long into August.

We don’t expect Democrats to take this deal. The party has been in an obstructive posture since Trump’s return to the White House, which is why not a single Trump nominee has been confirmed by unanimous consent.

GOP senators have already been told to plan for weekend votes. But beyond that, it’s unclear how long the Senate goes into August. It depends on how many nominations Thune pushes and how cooperative Democrats are feeling.

Senate Republican leaders are looking to Trump to get a sense of which nominees he wants prioritized. There are 144 nominations on the executive calendar awaiting confirmation. We delved into that group last week.

Two GOP senators who have spoken with Trump recently told us that the president remains fixated on diplomatic nominees, particularly his ambassador picks, as we first reported back in May. There are more than two dozen ambassadors awaiting confirmation.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has sent nominations to the floor at a record pace and Thune has moved a bunch. But Trump wants it to go faster, and he’s constantly in Foreign Relations Committee Chair Jim Risch’s (R-Idaho) ear about it.

3) Economy: Wednesday will have new data on U.S. economic growth – the “advance” Q2 GDP estimate from the Commerce Department – plus the announcement from the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rates. Following Trump’s unprecedented tour of the Federal Reserve’s building site tour last week with Fed Chair Jay Powell – which the president openly admitted was part of his pressure campaign for lower interest rates – this will be even bigger news than usual.

Trump’s latest round of tariffs is also supposed to kick in on Aug. 1. Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union on Sunday night.

On the GDP front, remember that Q1 showed the U.S. economy contracted by 0.5%, so Wednesday’s announcement is highly anticipated, especially as experts suss out the impact of Trump’s trade wars. Estimates for Q2 range from 1.7% growth to 2.4%.

All this makes the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and Powell’s subsequent presser must-see TV. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady but signal a rate cut in September. Trump won’t be happy if that’s the case. Inflation ticked up last month, which worries policymakers.

New: Problem Solvers’ Trump asks. The House’s Problem Solver Caucus has a new letter to Trump from co-chairs Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) asking the president to work on immigration reform, permitting reform and the national debt.

— John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

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NORTH CAROLINA SENATE

News: SLF goes after Cooper early in N.C.

News: The Senate Leadership Fund is launching a digital ad blitz against former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper as the Democrat readies a Senate run.

The North Carolina campaign represents one of the Senate GOP leadership-aligned super PAC’s first spends this cycle. And it’s an early statement of intent in what will be one of the nation’s most expensive and competitive Senate seats.

The ad buy totals $200,000 and includes digital messaging labeling Cooper “Radical Roy.”

One digital ad bashes Cooper for embracing “radical gender ideology,” pushing higher taxes and supporting sanctuary cities.

“Roy Cooper masquerades as a moderate. But he’s just another radical D.C. liberal in disguise,” the ad concludes.

The buy also covers a texting campaign, plus Google and X ads.

Despite Cooper’s status as a popular governor who served two terms in a red-leaning state, Republicans feel he hasn’t faced the full brunt of a coordinated GOP spending barrage. This initial salvo from SLF is a sign that is going to change.

Democrats are delighted that Cooper is set to get into the race and view the former governor as their party’s top recruit all cycle. The Democratic primary is already clearing for Cooper.

On the GOP side, Republicans are coalescing around RNC Chair Michael Whatley, who received President Donald Trump’s endorsement last week.

— Max Cohen

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What we’re watching

Monday: The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing on two nominees: Brian Quintenz to be chair of the CFTC and Michael Boren to be under secretary of agriculture for natural resources and environment.

Tuesday: The Senate Armed Services Committee will receive a closed briefing on Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities back in June.

Wednesday: The Senate Banking Committee will have a hearing on AI’s role in capital and insurance markets. Tal Cohen, the president of Nasdaq, will be among the witnesses.

The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will hold a nominations hearing. Senate Agriculture will have a hearing on the reorganization of the USDA with Stephen Vaden, the deputy secretary of agriculture.

Thursday: The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing on a number of Naval nominees.

The Senate Appropriations Committee will have a markup on the Defense and Labor-HHS spending bills.

– Jake Sherman

THE CAMPAIGN

Unrig Our Economy puts four Texas Republicans on notice

News: Liberal 501(c)(4) group Unrig Our Economy is launching a $2 million ad campaign attacking four Texas House Republicans whose districts could become more competitive thanks to GOP redistricting efforts.

The four lawmakers targeted are GOP Reps. Lance Gooden, Monica De La Cruz, Beth Van Duyne and Dan Crenshaw. This is a fascinating effort that reveals the potential perils of Republicans’ attempt to squeeze House Democrats out of seats in Texas.

Safer Republican seats could be put in play under a new redistricting plan. And left-wing groups like Unrig Our Economy are jumping in early.

The ads all focus on Republican incumbents voting for the Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill.

Check out the ads targeting Gooden, Van Duyne, De La Cruz and Crenshaw.

South Carolina watch: Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) officially announced his run for governor on Sunday. Norman got early endorsements from former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Sen. Jim DeMint (S.C.), who also chairs the Conservative Partnership Institute.

Norman, a conservative hardliner, could be in a messy primary with fellow House Rep. Nancy Mace, who may also soon enter the race.

Norman previously told us he had discussed his campaign launch with Mace, as well as state attorney general Alan Wilson, who is also in the race.

– Max Cohen and Mica Soellner

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