The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

It’s a tale of 2 Senates this week

Ogles seeks to fend off challenger in tight primary

Senate’s turn to investigate Trump assassination attempt

What to watch in Arizona

Wes Moore on Harris, Key Bridge and small business

THE TOP

It’s a tale of 2 Senates this week

Happy Tuesday morning.

Within 48 hours this week, the Senate will go from passing a landmark social media bill to voting on a doomed-to-fail tax package that Democrats are using to advance a key election-year message.

It’s a “tale of two Senates,” yet it’s also a microcosm of the entire 118th Congress. There have been bipartisan deals this year on the massive foreign aid package and the TikTok forced-divestiture bill, but also a slew of partisan party-line votes that are only designed to score political points.

And the real intention here – at least on the tax bill – is to help vulnerable Democratic incumbents or force Republicans into a politically uncomfortable position.

We first told you earlier this month that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was considering one of two paths to close out the summer session — messaging votes or legislation that can actually pass. Schumer ultimately chose both.

Tax-a-palooza: Schumer’s decision to tee up the Wyden-Smith tax bill this week is a continuation of what Republicans have dubbed Schumer’s “summer of show votes.” The goal has been to highlight Republicans’ opposition to federal abortion protections, as well as calling them out for derailing the bipartisan border security agreement earlier this year.

The tax bill is unique, though. It got House GOP leadership’s support and 357 votes in that chamber.

But in the Senate, Republican leaders have done everything in their power to block it under the belief that the GOP will get a better deal on tax policy next year when Congress tries to address the expiring Trump tax cuts.

“If we were lucky enough to run the tables and have the trifecta next year, obviously it’s a much better bill,” Senate Minority Whip John Thune told us. “And even if it’s not, you can use the things they’re asking for now as [a] trade.”

Another reason we know this is a show vote is that it’ll take place at the very end of this week — right before the six-week summer recess begins. Of course, there would be several additional procedural steps if the bill were to somehow get 60 votes on Thursday.

Yet the tax bill is somewhat of an odd show vote. It could get backing from several Republicans. And some progressive Democrats in the Senate such as Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have been critical of the bill, saying it’s not a good enough deal for families.

But the timing comes with the child tax credit — Democrats’ priority in the bill — very much in the news.

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), the GOP vice presidential nominee, falsely claimed last weekend that Vice President Kamala Harris called to end the child tax credit. Expanding the credit has been a signature policy of the Biden-Harris administration. Republicans, including Vance, also back the CTC. But the GOP generally opposes making the program as expansive or available to people with little or no income as Democrats want.

Schumer is choosing to prioritize the CTC in his messaging on the bill. Here’s how Schumer framed the vote on the Senate floor Monday night:

Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) had a similar message:

Case in point — Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, is also cheering the vote and highlighting its CTC expansion.

The CTC is just the kind of policy Democrats want to tout and run on with a big tax debate looming in 2025.

Social media bills on tap: By this afternoon, the Senate will have passed a legislative package forcing social media companies to do more to safeguard children who use their platforms. And it’ll have done so in a huge bipartisan vote.

As we’ve written, this kind of federal crackdown on Big Tech is unprecedented. The package includes the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) and the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA).

But it can’t be grouped in quite yet with the other bipartisan accomplishments of the last two Congresses. That’s because it’s unclear whether the House will pass it, although Speaker Mike Johnson has spoken positively about the package.

House members started their August recess a week early, and when they return in September, the focus will be on averting a government shutdown at the end of the month.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), the lead Democratic sponsor of KOSA, told us he’s optimistic in part because the House doesn’t need several days of floor time to pass legislation like the Senate does.

“The House can vote on something in an hour,” Blumenthal said. “Time is not the issue over there.”

— Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

PRIMARY WATCH

Ogles seeks to fend off challenger in tight primary

Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) is set to face a tougher-than-expected primary on Thursday in a race that’s being viewed as another referendum on the strength of the House Freedom Caucus. The conservative hardliner is hoping to fend off a well-funded Republican who is accusing Ogles of being a “do nothing” lawmaker.

Ogles, a freshman member who has ambitions to chair the House Freedom Caucus, is facing Nashville Metro Council member Courtney Johnston. Johnston has a significant fundraising advantage over Ogles, reporting $500,000 cash-on-hand earlier this month, compared to Ogles’ $95,000.

“We’re taking nothing for granted,” Ogles told us. “We’re being outspent but we’re working harder. We’ve got the grassroots and our polling looks good. You never take your foot off the gas.”

Yet Ogles’ allies are more worried about the race than they want to be, according to multiple conversations we’ve had with members of the Freedom Caucus and the Tennessee delegation.

Ogles has come under scrutiny for his campaign finances. Ogles had to amend his FEC reports to reflect that a $320,000 loan he previously reported making to his campaign didn’t actually happen. The Tennessee Republican’s campaign said it was a mistake, and that Ogles only loaned his campaign $20,000.

Ogles also has reportedly embellished parts of his resume. A local news outlet reported that Ogles misrepresented his educational background and business credentials.

Johnston has hit Ogles over his campaign finance and resume controversies. She accused Ogles of being a headline chaser while painting herself as someone dedicated to good governance, making the race a contrast of personalities more so than policies.

Ogles’ ouster would be another big blow to the HFC after Chair Bob Good (R-Va.) lost his high-profile primary against Virginia state Sen. John McGuire in June. Good’s recount is set for Thursday. The group has also lost several efforts to oust incumbents and replace them with more conservative candidates.

But unlike Good, Ogles has the support of former President Donald Trump. The Tennessee Republican has been running ads in the safe Republican district highlighting his Trump endorsement. He also has backing from the Americans for Prosperity Action group.

HFC circles the wagons: The Freedom Caucus doesn’t want to see another one of its members go down. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) said he donated to Ogles’ campaign to help boost his primary.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) was making plans to try and go to Ogles’ district and said he’s been messaging on social media and other platforms to get out the vote for Ogles.

“Primaries, especially a first one, are tough and [Ogles is] going to find a way to work through it,” Donalds told us. “Andy has my full support and I’ll make sure I get that message out there for people in Tennessee.”

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), who isn’t a member of the Freedom Caucus but is close to the group, said he twice campaigned for Ogles in his district already.

“There’s only two ways to run: scared or unopposed,” Burchett told us. “He’ll be outspent with a lot of outside money coming in.”

Ogles’ ambitions: As we previously reported, Ogles is planning to run for House Freedom Caucus chair. Good will step down from the chairmanship if he loses the Aug. 1 recount.

Ogles’ plans have already sparked some internal annoyance over him being a freshman seeking the spot. But others have welcomed Ogles as a possible leader of the conservative bloc.

“Andy would be a great chair,” Tiffany said. “He’s really good at what he does.”

Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.) said he would have no reservations about Ogles becoming the next HFC chair even if the Tennessee Republican is weakened after a tough primary. But Cline noted it’s ultimately a decision for the group’s board.

— Mica Soellner and Melanie Zanona

INVESTIGATIONS

Senate’s turn to investigate Trump assassination attempt

Last week, the House Oversight Committee got major results probing the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump when the panel grilled then-Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle and forced her resignation. Today, it’s the Senate’s turn for oversight of the deadly incident.

Cheatle’s replacement, Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe Jr., will testify alongside Deputy FBI Director Paul Abbate in front of a joint hearing of the Senate Judiciary and Homeland Security and Government Affairs committees.

We’re expecting less fireworks than what we saw in the House. For starters, Cheatle’s resignation has already been secured — a main demand of many lawmakers in both chambers.

And the Senate is a little late to the game here.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who sits on the Judiciary Committee, pointed out that Congress already heard from Cheatle and FBI Director Christopher Wray in the last week.

“Frankly, I don’t expect a lot more new information to come up,” Cornyn said. “We all have a pretty clear idea of what happened. And it represents a profound failure by the Secret Service.”

Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) told us that a lot about the shooting “has already come out” and mentioned she may not even attend the whole hearing, citing a conflicting hearing on Tuesday.

Yet serious questions still remain over how a 20-year-old shooter came within inches of killing Trump during a July 13 rally in Butler, Pa.

Senators we spoke to said they were most curious to learn more about the failure in communication between local law enforcement and the Secret Service. The New York Times reported on Sunday that local police spotted the shooter hours before Trump was shot but lost track of him in the rally space.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said he wanted to learn about the shooter’s motive, based on what investigators may have learned about his conversations with the shooter’s parents.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

What to watch in Arizona

Here’s what we’re watching today as voters head to the primary polls in Arizona.

How comfortably will Lake advance to the general? Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is the massive favorite to take on Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) in November. A recent poll found Sheriff Mark Lamb trailing Lake by 12 points. It’s a tighter race than many in Washington may have expected given Lake has locked up every major GOP endorsement. Gallego leads most general election polls at this early stage in the race.

What Democrat will take on Schweikert? Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) is a major target for Democrats in the state’s competitive 1st District. A crowded group of Democrats are running to unseat Schweikert in a seat that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020. The top tier of candidates include former Arizona Democratic Party Chair Andrei Cherny, former state legislator Amish Shah, former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods and businessman Conor O’Callaghan.

Will Trump’s endorsement gimmick matter in the 8th District? The race to succeed retiring Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.) appears to be a battle between Blake Masters and Abe Hamadeh. Trump endorsed Hamadeh — the losing 2022 attorney general candidate — in 2023. But in a bizarre switch, Trump backed both Masters and Hamadeh this week. Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), has endorsed Masters, the unsuccessful Senate candidate in 2022. Lesko, for what it’s worth, is endorsing Arizona House Speaker Ben Toma.

Will a crypto PAC make the difference in the safe-blue 3rd District? Democrats Raquel Terán and Yassamin Ansari are dueling it out to fill Gallego’s seat. In the election’s closing stages, crypto PAC Protect Progress is spending millions of dollars to boost Ansari over Terán. The CHC BOLD PAC has endorsed Terán and is furious at the outside spending that the group argues is targeting the state’s potential first Latina member of Congress.

And here are two other campaign updates for you:

New Dem Action Fund news: The political arm of the New Democrat Coalition is endorsing Missy Cotter Smasal in Virginia’s 2nd District, John Mannion in New York’s 22nd District, Eugene Vindman in Virginia’s 7th District, Suhas Subramanyam in Virginia’s 10th District and Herb Conaway in New Jersey’s 3rd District.

Harris hosts Latino outreach event: Last Thursday, Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff hosted a barbecue event at the VP’s residence along with the Voto Latino Foundation. Hollywood stars like America Ferrera, Rosario Dawson, Gina Torres and Wilson Cruz were in attendance.

We reported last week that Voto Latino registered a major uptick in Latino voter registrations in the days after Harris launched her bid.

— Max Cohen

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Wes Moore on Harris, Key Bridge and small business

Did you miss our event with Maryland Democratic Gov. Wes Moore in Baltimore on Monday?

Moore was upbeat about Vice President Kamala Harris taking the helm of the Democratic presidential ticket.

Moore also highlighted his administration’s efforts to boost small businesses, including working with the private sector to invest in trade programs and apprenticeships that help to close the skills gap.

Moore also called for urgent funding from Congress to reconstruct the damaged Francis Scott Key Bridge, which he said could be rebuilt by 2028.

You can watch the full recording here.

— Punchbowl News Team

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