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PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Friday morning. The House is in session.
It’s a huge day for President Joe Biden, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
The House will come back for one day to debate and vote on the Inflation Reduction Act, the Democrats’ top legislative priority for 2022. This reconciliation package contains an array of the president’s and his party’s priorities. It’s the last big legislative vote by members before they go before the voters.
Let’s start with this: We’ve gotten every indication that this package will pass. House Democratic leaders are convinced they’ll be able to limit their “no” votes to four or fewer. Sending this bill to Biden’s desk will cap off a very successful two-month run for the president and Democratic congressional leaders.
We checked in with some senior Democratic aides last night and they’re hoping to convince every member of their caucus to vote for this bill, including those who regularly buck the party line, such as Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine).
While Golden has praised parts of the bill, he hasn’t committed to voting for it. And Golden put out a new ad this week touting how he was “the only Democrat to vote against trillions of dollars of President Biden’s agenda.”
Golden’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment by press time. But if Pelosi and her team are able to lock in every Democrat, it would be a nice coup for them after months of setbacks on this bill.
And the White House is wasting no time, already shopping an August message about how Democrats “beat the special interests and delivered” for Americans. We reported on this in detail in our Midday edition yesterday.
One thing missing from the schedule today: A vote on a police funding package, as moderates had demanded before the recess. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Frontline Democrats are disappointed, but they aren’t expected to oppose the reconciliation package.
Here is the timeline for today’s floor action, as described by several leadership sources.
→ | The House will come into session at 10 a.m. and vote on the rule that sets the parameters for debate for the reconciliation bill. |
→ | There will be three hours of debate equally divided between the Budget, Ways and Means and Energy and Commerce committees. Since it’s a Senate amendment to a House bill, there are no amendments in order. |
→ | Democratic and Republican leadership anticipate that the House will move to a final vote on the reconciliation package sometime in the 3 p.m. hour. We wouldn’t be surprised if this slips to 4 p.m., quite frankly. As we say, when it comes to Congress, take the over. |
→ | Today’s vote marks the final chapter in an 18-month odyssey for Biden, Pelosi and Schumer on this reconciliation package. |
What began as the $4 trillion combined American Jobs Plan and American Families Plan in the spring of 2021 later morphed into the $2 trillion Build Back Better Act. The House passed it in November. Then Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) killed it off just in time for Christmas. It was revived this spring and early summer Build Back Manchin (yeah, we won’t use that again), only to be rejected again by Manchin. But Schumer and the West Virginia Democrat brought it back once more as the Inflation Reduction Act in mid-July, totaling about $750 billion. That’s the legislation the House is voting on today.
The motto of this story – anything can happen. Legislating takes lots of twists and turns.
– Jake Sherman and Heather Caygle
PRESENTED BY NATIONAL MINORITY QUALITY FORUM
Only 18% of voters of color believe the federal government should negotiate drug prices, while 69% believe reducing the overall cost of healthcare coverage—premiums, deductibles, copays—should be a main focus for Congress. Learn more in our poll with the National Hispanic Council on Aging by Morning Consult.
THE WFH CONGRESS
Get ready for an empty House today
Since July 29, the last day the House was in session, 150 lawmakers – Republicans and Democrats – have sent letters to the clerk’s office allowing them to proxy vote. Eighty-one lawmakers signaled their intention to do so this week alone.
So to reiterate: there will be a $700 billion-plus bill on the floor today, and as much as 35% of the House could vote remotely.
The irony here is that proxy voting was created to keep members from having to travel to Washington during Covid-19. The letters that lawmakers send to the Clerk of the House specifically state that they cannot attend because of the “ongoing public health emergency.” But we’ve spoken to plenty of lawmakers who simply don’t want to travel to Washington for one day of voting.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi has extended remote voting until Sept. 26. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has said that if Republicans take over the House in 2023, they would immediately end proxy voting.
– Jake Sherman
INVESTIGATIONS
Trump won’t oppose releasing search warrant, more to come on raid
Former President Donald Trump announced late Thursday night that he won’t oppose the release of documents related to a search warrant used by FBI agents to seize boxes of reportedly classified materials from Mar-A-Lago.
Trump’s statement came at the end of a stunning day that included Attorney General Merrick Garland wading directly into the middle of the political uproar over the Trump raid; a Trump supporter attacked a Cincinnati FBI office, only to be killed later in a shoot-out with law-enforcement officers; and allegations that federal agents were seeking to recover highly classified nuclear or intelligence secrets during their search of Trump’s home.
That was all in one day.
Let’s get to Trump’s statement, and then we’ll discuss what could happen next.
Trump issued this pronouncement late Thursday night:
“Not only will I not oppose the release of documents related to the unAmerican, unwarranted, and unnecessary raid and break-in of my home in Palm Beach, Florida, Mar-a-Lago, I am going to go a step further by ENCOURAGING the immediate release of those documents, even though they are have been drawn up by radical left Democrats and possible future political opponents, who have a strong and powerful vested interest in attacking me as they have done for the last 6 years.”
Trump added: “Release the documents now!”
The former president, of course, could do that on his own, but he’s instead leaving it to a federal judge to decide what gets released and what doesn’t.
Trump’s statement came just hours after this big scoop from the Washington Post – FBI agents were trying to determine if Trump improperly possessed information related to nuclear weapons during their raid:
Classified documents relating to nuclear weapons were among the items FBI agents sought in a search of former president Donald Trump’s Florida residence on Monday, according to people familiar with the investigation.
The Post also reported that signals intelligence – among the most sensitive of government secrets, often including phone intercepts and emails from foreign leaders – was found in boxes removed from Mar-a-Lago two months ago:
A person familiar with the inventory of fifteen boxes taken from Mar-a-Lago in June indicated that signals intelligence material was included in them. The precise nature of the information was unclear.
And here’s the New York Times:
Government officials have expressed concern that allowing highly classified materials to remain at Mr. Trump’s home could leave them vulnerable to efforts by foreign adversaries to acquire them, according to another person familiar with the Justice Department’s thinking.
It’s worth recalling reports that foreign governments and foreign nationals were repeatedly targeting Mar-a-Lago while Trump was president when evaluating what occurred this week.
We’ll also point out that Monday’s FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago came after federal agents obtained multiple subpoenas in June to remove other boxes allegedly containing classified material, as well as surveillance camera video from Trump’s club:
CNN reported this:
In addition to the grand jury subpoena for documents, CNN previously reported that federal investigators separately served a subpoena for surveillance video at Mar-a-Lago, seeking to gather information about who had access to areas where documents were stored, according to people briefed on the matter. The subpoena served to the Trump Organization, the former President’s company that operates the Palm Beach property, came after the June meeting.
So let’s put this all in chronological order. Officials at the National Archives and Records Administration had been pressing Trump for months to return documents improperly taken from the White House by the former president and his aides, possibly even classified materials. NARA officials took at least a dozen boxes of records from Mar-a-Lago early in 2022.
FBI agents later made a friendly, informal visit to Mar-a-Lago in June, and they even spoke to Trump. These agents suggested a new lock for the room where some of these documents were stored.
Just three weeks later, the FBI obtained multiple subpoenas for documents and surveillance video, and agents removed more boxes of materials.
Then an informant reportedly told the FBI that Trump was “still hiding” even more presidential documents and told them where the documents were located, according to Newsweek. That, combined with concerns over potential nuclear or sensitive intelligence information being among the materials, prompted Monday’s raid.
We’ll see how quickly the court releases the search warrant documents, and how much, if any, of the information is redacted.
We’ll also get a sense of how far House Republicans – a number of whom used inflammatory language in defending Trump earlier this week, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – will go when pressed on the issue today.
– John Bresnahan
2022
Can House Republicans blow it?
Here’s a poll that caught our eye: Fox News, which has a respected polling operation, had the generic ballot even between Republicans and Democrats on Thursday. 41% of respondents said they would vote for a Republican for Congress, while 41% said they would vote for a Democrat. This is a big swing in the Democrats’ direction from May, when Republicans were up 46%-39% on this question.
This isn’t entirely an outlier. A Monmouth poll from last week showed 38% of respondents want Democrats in control of Congress, while just 34% want Republicans in control. This is not an apples-to-apples comparison, but it does show Democrats gaining on the GOP.
The generic ballot, of course, is a far from perfect way of predicting what could happen during the upcoming midterms. Generic ballot polls test the national mood, not just the mood in the seats that Republicans need to win the majority. Furthermore, as Josh Holmes of Mitch McConnell world pointed out, Dems were ahead on the generic in August 2014, and Republicans ended up having a pretty good night, winning the Senate and expanding their majority in the House.
— Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY NATIONAL MINORITY QUALITY FORUM
Minorities’ top healthcare priorities? Healthcare costs, health equity, and boosting R&D for future treatments. More in our poll with the National Hispanic Council on Aging.
WELCOME TO THE FAMILY
Dario Sotomayor joins Punchbowl News
We’re super excited to announce that Punchbowl News has hired Dario Sotomayor as director of business development focused on our premium community. Dario was most recently at Bloomberg. He was born in Texas, grew up in Mexico and has spent the last 12 years in Washington. We’re absolutely thrilled to have him join our team.
Interested in joining Punchbowl News? We’re currently interviewing for a financial services reporter and a digital web producer to join our growing editorial team. Apply here.
THE CAMPAIGN
→ | Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), the fourth longest-serving lawmaker in the House, is running against Republican J.R. Majewski in what might be her most competitive race in decades. Kaptur is trying to paint herself as a serious lawmaker compared to Majewski, who starred in a bizarre rap video criticizing President Joe Biden. The spot is running in Toledo. |
→ | Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) reported raising $2 million between July 1 and Aug. 3 and has $15 million on hand. |
→ | We got a bunch of pre-primary fundraising reports in New York. Here’s a quick cash on hand rundown. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D) has $2.8 million, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) has $2.6 million, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) has $2.4 million and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D) has $1.6 million. |
→ | Wowzers. Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) raised $189,821 and spent a whopping $802,788. Gaetz spent $526,000 on advertising. He has $758,739 on hand. |
– Jake Sherman
FRONTS
PRESENTED BY NATIONAL MINORITY QUALITY FORUM
MOMENTS
All times eastern
9 a.m.: Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, and some of his fellow committee members will hold a news conference on the FBI raid of Mar-A-Lago.
9:15 a.m.: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn will hold a virtual news conference on the passage of the reconciliation bill.
10 a.m.: Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and members of the CPC executive board will hold a press conference on the Inflation Reduction Act.
10:45 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold her weekly news conference.
2:05 p.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will speak at Generation Thrive in Oakland about students and higher education. She will be joined by Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf.
3:10 p.m.: Harris will hold an event about commercial space operations at Chabot Space & Science Center in Oakland.
4:35 p.m.: Harris will speak about the administration’s support for commercial space exploration.
5:40 p.m.: Harris will fly from Oakland to Los Angeles.
CLIP FILE
NYT
→ | News Analysis: “Garland Calls Trump’s Bluff as Justice Department Moves to Unseal Warrant,” by Charlie Savage |
→ | News Analysis: “The Poisoned Relationship Between Trump and the Keepers of U.S. Secrets,” by Mark Mazzetti |
WaPo
→ | “The corporate minimum tax could hit these ultra-profitable companies,” by Kevin Schaul |
WSJ
→ | “S&P 500 Heading for Four-Week Winning Streak,” by Joe Wallace |
AP
→ | “Fetterman plans ‘raw’ remarks in return to PA Senate race,” by Steve Peoples and John Wawrow in Erie, Pa. |
Politico Magazine
→ | Ali Vitali book excerpt: “‘I Would Vote for You, If You Had a Penis’: Running as a Woman in 2020” |
USA Today
→ | “Rupert Murdoch, Jerry Hall divorce after 6 years of marriage: ‘They remain good friends,’” by Edward Segarra |
→ | “Millions live near Superfund sites. An oil industry tax in the climate bill could pay to clean those up,” by Ledyard King |
PRESENTED BY NATIONAL MINORITY QUALITY FORUM
This important NMQF and NHCOA poll of voters of color reveals the racial disparities that continue to rage through our healthcare system. Learn more.
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images. Political ads courtesy of AdImpact.
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