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Happy Tuesday morning.

President Joe Biden will sign the Inflation Reduction Act into law today at 3:30 p.m. in the White House. Biden will host a big event on Sept. 6 to celebrate the passage of this legislation. After signing the bill today, Biden will leave for Delaware.

Anyone reading the news or watching TV this August would think Donald Trump – rather than Biden – won the presidency in November 2020.

Trump is everywhere. The FBI’s search of Trump’s home in Mar-a-Lago last week – still the biggest story in the country – is just one facet of this apparently eternal Trump-centric news cycle. Stories that you don’t think are about Trump… are actually about Trump. Political reporters are back to tweeting about Trump statements made on Trump’s own social media network and writing about his travel schedule.

Trump even says that he had his camp call the Justice Department because the “temperature has to be brought down” regarding threats to law enforcement in the wake of the Mar-a-Lago search.

One example: A Pennsylvania man was arrested on Monday after threatening to use the blood of FBI agents to “water the trees of liberty.”

Of course, the temperature is this high because Trump and other Republicans launched a wave of unsubstantiated attacks on DOJ and the FBI following the Mar-a-Lago search, including suggestions that federal agents planted evidence. DOJ officials are opposing public release of the affidavit it filed in support of the search warrant, saying doing so would cause “irreparable damage” to the ongoing criminal investigation into Trump’s handling of classified documents.

We’ll talk about whether this is good or bad for each party, but first let’s discuss “The Summer of Trump.” “Trumpgust.” “Trumpcation.” “Trumpmania.” “Trumpocalypse.”

Here’s a taste of the Trump-related news:

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Rudy Giuliani is a “target” in the Georgia election probe: Giuliani faces a possible indictment in the criminal probe by Fulton County prosecutors over his role in attempting to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia, the New York Times first reported. Giuliani will go before a special grand jury in Atlanta on Wednesday. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) will also have to testify before the grand jury, a federal judge said on Monday.

→	Trump’s team accessed Georgia’s voting system: Here’s the Washington Post.

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The “other” Justice Department investigation: The Justice Department’s probe of the Jan. 6 insurrection, including attempts to use “false electors” to derail the certification of Biden’s Electoral College win, continues to heat up. Former White House lawyer Eric Herschmann – one of the breakout stars of Jan. 6 select committee hearings – has been subpoenaed for documents and testimony, per Politico’s Betsy Woodruff Swan.

→	Longtime Trump Org. exec may plea: Allen Weisselberg, the CFO of the Trump Organization, may plead guilty later this week to tax fraud charges. Weisselberg hasn’t cooperated with the Manhattan DA’s investigation into Trump.

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Liz Cheney and Lisa Murkowski’s future: Two longtime Republican dynasties are on the line in GOP primaries today against Trump-backed challengers. Cheney’s congressional career will likely be drawing to an end once this primary is over thanks to her role as the most prominent anti-Trump voice in the party. Cheney may, though, have a future as a 2024 presidential candidate.

Murkowski is a virtual lock to advance to the general election in November thanks to Alaska’s “top four” primary system. The veteran GOP senator is seen as the favorite in November due to her appeal across party lines, despite voting for Trump’s impeachment following the Jan. 6 insurrection.

→	Election deniers dominate GOP: Amy Gardner of the Washington Post reported that 2020 election deniers make up the majority of GOP candidates in key battleground states for 2024. All of these states also have big Senate races this November, which should help Democrats – at least for right now.

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The one-year anniversary of the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal: This is really a Trump story because the former president reached a deal with the Taliban in February 2020 approving the U.S. withdrawal from the war-torn country. Biden and top administration officials are being roundly – and fairly – criticized for how they handled the fall of the Western-backed government in Kabul and the American pullout. But it’s equally fair to note that Trump’s agreement with the Taliban imposed an extraordinarily difficult choice on Biden once he took office.

So what does this focus on Trump mean?

If there’s one thing that unites Democrats, it’s their loathing of all things Trump. Having Trump and his inner circle involved in multiple criminal investigations across multiple states – with possible indictments and plea deals looming – reminds voters of the chaos of Trump’s presidency.

Hill Democrats are also praying that Trump announces he’s running for president in 2024. The sooner the better, they say. Combine that with the Supreme Court ruling on abortion and some recent wins for Biden and the Democratic majority in Congress, and Democrats have a fighting chance in November.

At the very least, Democrats have a viable message heading into the election. It may not be enough to hold onto the House. But Democratic Senate candidates in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and New Hampshire are looking good at the moment. Ohio and Wisconsin are also in play, and possibly even North Carolina.

Of course, if the U.S. economy continues to stumble and inflation remains high, Republicans have an enormous, perhaps unbeatable, advantage. Biden’s poll numbers are marginally better than they once were, although he’s still deeply underwater. History is strongly against Democrats as well, especially in the House.

For Republicans, everything still revolves around Trump – the same as it’s been since that moment he rode down the golden escalator in June 2015. This is the way the former president likes it, and it demonstrates his continued pull as the unofficial head of the GOP. Trump tries to portray his presidency as a time of peace and prosperity as compared to the Biden era – minus that whole Covid-19 pandemic stuff.

Yet Trump led the GOP to losing the House, Senate and White House. He turns off some suburban voters that Republicans need. His legal problems are growing worse, not better. And endlessly fighting the 2020 election all over again isn’t a winning strategy politically. Americans want help with soaring prices, rent and gas (until recently). The Trump Show distracts Republicans from offering voters solutions to those issues.

– John Bresnahan

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