Can Trump's BLS nom get through the Senate?

IN THIS EDITION

Will the Senate trust Antoni with U.S. economic data?

Schumer improves his hand with recruitment wins

Gen Z challenger eyes Nadler ouster

Moore launches Alabama Senate bid

THE TOP

Will the Senate trust Antoni with U.S. economic data?

Happy Wednesday morning.

The Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions has another bruising nomination fight on its hands.

President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics isn’t an understated wonk or lifelong civil servant. E.J. Antoni is currently chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation.

If confirmed, Antoni would replace Erika McEntarfer, who was fired by Trump following significant downward revisions in the prior jobs report. Those revisions are a standard part of the BLS process, intended to improve the quality of government data month-over-month.

This isn’t a typical nomination, even by the uneven standards of the Trump administration. Trump’s firing of McEntarfer cracked open real fears about the long-term quality and reliability of core U.S. economic data — in particular, metrics that don’t square with Trump’s declaration of a “golden age” for the United States.

The 37-year-old Antoni has called Social Security “a Ponzi scheme,” a hugely controversial statement that Democrats have already seized upon. He’s criticized “neocons like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina)” over their continued support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, as well as the huge run-up in government red ink by the first Trump administration.

Antoni incorrectly predicted a recession multiple times during Biden’s presidency while also urging conservatives to “under no circumstances” agree to an increase in the debt limit in 2023 without dramatic cuts in spending. GOP lawmakers just agreed to boost the debt limit by $5 trillion as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill.

Antoni also isn’t a “soothe the markets” pick for this job either. Antoni told Fox News just prior to his nomination that the monthly jobs report ought to be replaced with a quarterly report until the BLS has improved data collection practices. That’s not a popular take among investors or economists at the Federal Reserve, who always want more government data, not less.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt walked that back somewhat during Tuesday’s briefing, saying the Trump administration wanted monthly reports with “data that the American people can trust.” Leavitt also defended Antoni’s qualifications, noting that he’d been “called before Congress to testify as an economic expert.”

The Wall Street Journal editorial page, a longtime thorn in Trump’s side, said this: “Mr. Antoni’s commentary at Heritage has been highly partisan, but the BLS job demands nonpartisan professionalism. … Mr. Antoni will have to take off his MAGA hat if he wants to ensure that the public and markets can trust BLS data.”

And Antoni isn’t beloved by other economists. He’s criticized the BLS for years, including this appearance on Steve Bannon’s podcast to blast large downward jobs revisions in late 2024.

Even conservative economists have disputed his data and framing. The Manhattan Institute’s Jessica Riedl, an ex-staffer for former Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) who previously worked at Heritage as an economist, said on X that “senators who vote to confirm Antoni are voting to essentially eviscerate the BLS and its jobs data.”

White House x Senate. The Senate is out until September. And right now, the administration’s top priority is getting Stephen Miran confirmed to an expiring term on the Federal Reserve Board. There’s also the backlog of more than 140 nominees awaiting a floor vote.

But Antoni’s nomination will have to go through a gauntlet at the Senate HELP Committee, a panel that’s given the Trump administration some trouble this year. The committee has Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) as its chair and GOP Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Rand Paul (Ky.) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) down the dais.

The HELP Committee doesn’t typically hold confirmation hearings for the BLS commissioner, though it has occasionally done so in the past. A hearing would give skeptical senators a chance to get answers from Antoni and more insights into how he’d lead the BLS.

It’s unclear if Cassidy will hold a hearing on Antoni’s nomination, although the White House sees one as inevitable. Democrats, including Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), are demanding it. In a statement, Murray called Antoni an “unqualified right-wing extremist who won’t think twice about manipulating BLS data.”

Cassidy has been vocal on ways to improve the BLS, including during McEntarfer’s tenure. Cassidy and Collins last year demanded more accountability from BLS, citing its “inability to produce initially reliable data.”

Cassidy spokesperson Stephen Lewerenz said the Louisiana Republican – who is up for reelection in 2026 – looks forward to meeting with Antoni, pointing to problems at the BLS.

“BLS’s years-long failure to produce reliable data — especially when that data has broad market-moving implications — is unacceptable,” Lewerenz said in a statement.

“We need a BLS Commissioner committed to producing accurate, unbiased economic information to the American people. Chairman Cassidy looks forward to meeting with Dr. Antoni to discuss how he will accomplish this.”

— Brendan Pedersen, Samantha Handler, Andrew Desiderio and Jake Sherman

THE SENATE MAP

Schumer improves his hand with recruitment wins

The 2026 Senate map is pretty unfavorable for Democrats. But a string of recent recruitment wins is putting some wind in Democrats’ sails.

On Tuesday, we reported that former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is running again in 2026. Last month, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper jumped into the open North Carolina race.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer played a big role in convincing both to run. While Cooper will be more competitive in North Carolina than Brown in Ohio, nabbing the best possible general election candidate is one way Schumer and Senate Democrats can combat a bad map.

Cooper will take on GOP candidate Michael Whatley, while Brown would face off against Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio). Husted was appointed to the seat earlier this year to fill the vacancy left by Vice President JD Vance. At the very least, Brown’s entrance into the race will force Republicans to spend more money in Ohio than they otherwise would have.

Across the map, national Democrats are also upbeat about state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian who entered the Iowa Senate race on Tuesday, although the state has gotten more red over the last decade.

Contrast Democrats’ recruitment wins with Republicans’ setbacks in that arena. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu — widely seen as the strongest general election candidates in their respective states — declined to run for Senate despite intense lobbying efforts by GOP leaders.

Still, Democrats need to contend with a wide-open primary in Michigan while Republicans are already united behind former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.). There are also competitive Democratic primaries brewing in Iowa, Texas and Minnesota.

What’s next? Schumer still needs to convince Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills to run against GOP Sen. Susan Collins. In Alaska, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is weighing a gubernatorial run, but she could instead run against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.

To be sure, any talk of Democrats winning back the majority in 2026 is unrealistic at this point.

Democrats would have to defend Georgia and Michigan, flip North Carolina and Maine, plus win two other GOP-held seats that are solidly red. That could be any of the following: Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska or Alaska. None of these states are seriously in play right now, although that could change.

Democrats also have to defend open seats in Minnesota and New Hampshire, while guarding against any outside threats in Virginia, New Mexico and New Jersey.

But the recruitment game — one of the most important roles of a party leader — is going well so far for Schumer.

— Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

EMPIRE STATE POLITICS

Gen Z challenger eyes Nadler ouster

After losing the top Democratic spot on the House Judiciary Committee last Congress, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) now has to fend off a much younger primary challenger.

Liam Elkind, the 26-year-old founder of a New York City nonprofit, launched his campaign against Nadler just over a week ago. Elkin is calling for generational change, saying the 78-year-old Nadler is out of touch with the current political climate.

“If Democrats continue to be the party of strongly worded letters, we’re going to continue to lose,” Elkind told us. “We have one shot left to get our country back, or we could become a permanent minority party.”

Elkind is one of several Gen Z and Millennial candidates challenging longtime House Democrats, who they say are not doing enough to fight back against President Donald Trump.

In his launch video, Elkind urged Nadler to retire and showed footage of the incumbent falling asleep at hearings, as well as other reports of aging Democrats dying in office.

Nadler was essentially forced out as Judiciary ranking member last Congress after Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) challenged him for the job. Nadler had been the panel’s top Democrat since 2017, but many of his colleagues were privately calling for him to be replaced.

On the campaign trail. Elkind said Democrats have struggled to find a solutions-oriented message to counter Trump, pointing out the president’s inroads in New York City last year, including in Nadler’s 12th District.

Elkind also noted Nadler’s tenure in politics before coming to Congress, where he served 15 years in the New York State Assembly.

“When he was first elected, rent was $500 bucks. The president was Gerald Ford, my mother was 9 years old, and the latest technology was a floppy disk,” Elkind said. “Now, rent is almost $5,000 for a one-bedroom apartment in Manhattan, and we’ve lost to Donald Trump twice.”

Nadler’s response. Nadler’s campaign highlighted the New York Democrat’s strong electoral record, including his 2022 primary victory against longtime veteran Rep. Carolyn Maloney.

“Congressman Nadler will put his over 30-year record of accomplishments against anyone, including someone who appears to have no record of accomplishment to speak of,” said Robert Gottheim, Nadler’s chief of staff.

– Mica Soellner

SENATE WATCH

Moore launches Alabama Senate bid

Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) launched his Senate bid this week, painting himself as one of President Donald Trump’s earliest and most loyal supporters ahead of what could be a crowded primary.

Moore said he spoke to both outgoing Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) and Trump before launching his bid. Tuberville is running for governor in 2026 instead of seeking reelection to the Senate.

“The president needs allies in the Senate and we want to make sure that who we send is somebody he can trust,” Moore told us. “Alabama loves President Trump and so does the Moore family, and we’ve had his back.”

In addition to Moore, Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall is also running to replace Tuberville. And others, including former GOP Rep. Mo Brooks and ex-Tuberville aide Morgan Murphy, have expressed some interest.

Moore said he’s continuing to have conversations with the White House and spoke to every Republican member of the Alabama delegation before he announced his launch.

Moore keeps a low profile in the House despite being an active member of the rambunctious House Freedom Caucus. Moore faced a member-on-member primary last cycle where he fended off former Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) in a heated race.

In his Senate launch video, Moore touts that he was the first elected official to endorse Trump and took a shot at Republicans, whom he says are trying to cozy up to Trump only when he’s in power.

“I’m not a RINO and I’m sure not one of those MAGA pretenders suddenly coming to be conservative,” Moore said. “I ain’t ever been nothing but a Republican and I stand up for our values in Congress every day.”

– Mica Soellner

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign. Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) ruled out a run in Texas’ proposed new 35th District, setting him on a collision course with veteran Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) in the new 37th District in Austin.

Doggett has been publicly urging Casar to run in the 35th District, as we’ve reported. President Donald Trump carried the San Antonio-area seat by 10 points.

Casar’s chief of staff, Stephanie Trinh, wrote Tuesday in an email to supporters that Doggett made these statements “without discussing it with Greg or his team.”

Trinh noted that the new 35th District contains less than 10% of Casar’s current district and none of Austin, which Casar has represented for a decade, including a seven-year stint on the city council. Should Casar run in the 35th District, Trinh wrote, “it would undercut Democrats’ chance to win in the new south Texas seat by running a candidate with deep ties to the community.”

On the air. Affordable Pennsylvania is running an ad in the Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York, Pa. TV market, criticizing Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) for cutting veterans’ health care benefits.

The ad, featuring a veteran, says that slashing Medicaid will result in cuts to veterans’ health care. Perry is also a veteran.

Perry will face Democrat Janelle Stelson in 2026, a rematch of the 2024 matchup which had the incumbent winning by 1.2 percentage points.

Watch the ad here.

Downtown Download. Bluesky Social, the company looking to compete with X, has hired The Vogel Group to represent its interests in D.C. The Vogel Group will work on “[g]eneral awareness and education building about decentralized platforms.”

Recruitment watch. Washington state Senate Minority Leader John Braun launched a run Tuesday against Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.). Braun runs an emergency vehicle manufacturing company and served three decades in the Navy.

Privately, some Democrats acknowledge he is stronger than Joe Kent, the 2022 and 2024 Republican nominee who flopped against Gluesenkamp Perez. Trump narrowly carried the district last year and it’s a top GOP target.

– Jake Sherman and Ally Mutnick

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