NEW: Democrats' new California map

IN THIS EDITION

California Dems step on the redistricting gas

Fighting OBBB in a Trump-won state

Arrington in mix for Texas Tech post

Who’s up, who’s down?

THE TOP

California Dems step on the redistricting gas

Happy Friday morning.

Trump’s Putin gambit: President Donald Trump will head to Alaska today for a very high-profile meeting on Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage. The White House hasn’t formally announced the U.S. delegation yet, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend. Putin will be accompanied by Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov, plus top Russian defense and economic officials.

Trump has tried to downplay this event over the last few days, saying a more important meeting would be between him, Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. That hasn’t been scheduled yet, and may not happen depending on today’s outcome.

Trump is set to return to Washington by early Saturday morning, according to the White House.

News: Trump has invited all Republican state legislators from Indiana to the White House Aug. 26, according to sources familiar with the plans. The Trump administration has been trying to convince Hoosier State Republicans to redraw their congressional map to add an additional Republican seat.

Vice President JD Vance met with Indiana statehouse leaders and GOP Gov. Mike Braun last week on the issue. But Indiana lawmakers have been reluctant to bow to the Trump administration on their map so far.

The Golden State. It’s go time for California Democrats.

Gov. Gavin Newsom formally launched his campaign to convince California voters to back a ballot measure that pauses their state’s independent redistricting commission and lets the Democratic-dominated legislature gerrymander a number of new Democratic congressional seats. Newsom plans to call a special election on this issue for Nov. 4.

Dubbed the “Election Rigging Response Act,” it is Newsom’s counter to efforts by Trump and Republicans nationwide to add more GOP seats in order to save their endangered House majority.

Democratic leaders in the California legislature are expected to release their proposed map today. As we’ve reported, they are eyeing a pickup of three to five seats. Some of those new districts will be easier to flip than others.

California has a fast-approaching deadline to call a November special election. They will have to move quickly once state lawmakers return from summer recess on Aug. 18.

And remember, there’s no guarantee of success for Democrats here. California’s redistricting commission is popular. Newsom and other state Democrats will have to make the case that voters should do away with it until the end of the decade. A ton of money will be spent on this campaign by both sides.

House Majority PAC, Democrats’ top congressional outside group, is listed on Newsom’s website’s disclaimer, a sign the organization will be involved in the effort.

Although the map comes out later today, we got the details for you this morning. Here’s what it’s likely to look like, per our conversations with multiple Democrats close to the process.

The GOP targets. The two biggest Republican losers in the proposed map are Rep. Ken Calvert in the Inland Empire and Rep. Doug LaMalfa in the northeast corner of the state. Their seats will be transformed into very safe Democratic turf.

Calvert’s district has been a target for Democrats over the past couple of election cycles. Under the new Democratic map, the district’s current configuration has disappeared, according to sources close to the process. Democrats have added a district in southern Los Angeles similar to the one former Democratic Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard once held. This seat would be an easy pickup for Democrats.

Reelection will also become much more difficult for two-term GOP Rep. Kevin Kiley, who currently represents a seat that spans from the Sacramento suburbs down the Nevada border.

Kiley’s proposed new district will include more liberal voters in the Sacramento area, but won’t be quite as blue as LaMalfa’s or Calvert’s new seats, per sources. A possible Democratic candidate to watch: Kermit Jones, a veteran and physician who ran in 2022.

So Democrats expect to win these three seats — should voters approve the new map — with little trouble or expense.

The two other pickup opportunities for Democrats are GOP Reps. Darrell Issa in inland San Diego and David Valadao in the Central Valley.

Valadao’s seat is a frequent election-year battleground. It gets significantly better for Democrats under the new lines but remains competitive. Trump would have narrowly carried it, according to sources familiar with the proposal.

Issa’s district, currently deep red, will now be competitive. It’s not a slam dunk for Democrats, but former Vice President Kamala Harris would have carried it in November. It’s worth noting that Issa is wealthy and can self fund.

Shrinking Frontline. Incumbent protection is just as important as offense for House Democrats in their quest for the majority.

Several Democrats in the delegation will see their battleground districts become much safer under the new map. That includes Reps. George Whitesides in the Los Angeles area, Dave Min in Orange County, Mike Levin in San Diego and Orange counties and Josh Harder in the northern Central Valley.

The districts of Reps. Adam Gray in the Central Valley and Derek Tran in Orange County remain competitive. But both could be well-positioned in a favorable Democratic environment.

– Ally Mutnick, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

THE SENATE

Fighting OBBB in a Trump-won state

PHOENIX — President Donald Trump won Arizona by more than five points in November.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) says there’s no chance Trump would come out on top if the election were held today.

“I don’t think [Arizonans] voted for Medicaid being drastically cut,” Kelly said in an interview here after hosting events focused on Medicaid and tariffs. “Over the next decade, we will see 250-300,000 people lose their Medicaid coverage.”

It’s no secret Democrats see a path to electoral success in 2026 by highlighting Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” especially in Arizona, where House Republicans are vulnerable.

Kelly is positioning himself as a top messenger for his party, not only through his role as a DSCC vice chair but through efforts to topple GOP lawmakers in the Grand Canyon State.

“They voted for a big tax cut for billionaires at the expense of people who are poor and need help with health care coverage and food assistance,” Kelly said.

Kelly, who was under consideration to be former Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate last year, isn’t up for reelection until 2028. In the meantime, Kelly is taking steps to increase his national profile. Inevitably, this has stoked speculation about White House ambitions, but the former astronaut says that’s not his focus.

‘A big rock up a steep hill’: While the Medicaid portions of the bill are unpopular, Senate Republicans crafted the language such that the brunt of the cuts won’t be felt until after the 2026 elections. Meanwhile, popular provisions like “no tax on tips” will be implemented much sooner. That makes the messaging war harder for Democrats.

Kelly acknowledged the delayed implementation at a Medicaid roundtable here with local officials. And in a break from some Democrats who want scorched-earth opposition to everything Trump does, Kelly gave the president credit for the dramatic reduction in illegal southern border crossings — though with a caveat.

“The border is more secure today than it was. Give him a ton of credit for that,” Kelly said of Trump. “What we did not vote for — I don’t think the American people wanted — is a president who is ripping communities apart.”

Kelly is level-headed about Democrats’ low chances of taking back the Senate, but he sees a path if Democrats can successfully message the cuts to Medicaid and other assistance programs.

“I like to live in the real world,” Kelly quipped. “We are pushing a big rock up a steep hill… [But] we could actually win the Senate back.”

Senate summer: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer pushed Democratic senators to focus on Medicaid cuts as they criss-cross their states in August.

Kelly has been holding town halls in three Republican districts outside Phoenix. Two of those GOP House members — Reps. Juan Ciscomani and David Schweikert — are seen as especially vulnerable in 2026. Kelly on Thursday endorsed JoAnna Mendoza in the Democratic primary to take on Ciscomani. (We’ll have more on those races on Monday.)

News: As he gets more active on the national political scene, Kelly is bringing two veteran Democratic strategists into his operation.

Mairead Cahill will be Kelly’s national political director. Cahill is a veteran of Democratic presidential and Senate campaigns. Kelly is also bringing back Taylor Hawkins as national finance director.

— Andrew Desiderio

THE SENATE

Arrington in mix for Texas Tech post

House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) is being floated as a potential next chancellor of the Texas Tech University System.

Texas Tech Chancellor Tedd Mitchell announced he would step down within the year, although Mitchell added that he’d remain in the role until his successor is named. The regents are meeting today in Lubbock.

Arrington, first elected to the House in 2016, represents West Texas and is a two-time graduate of Texas Tech. He was also the chief of staff and vice chancellor of the school system under former Rep. Kent Hance (R-Texas).

Arrington is chair of the House Budget Committee, which played a critical role in advancing President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

The 53-year-old Arrington didn’t rule out a possible move when asked about the Texas Tech chancellorship.

Here’s Arrington’s statement to Punchbowl News:

If Arrington were to leave Congress early to take the job, his seat would stay safely in Republicans’ hands. Trump won his Lubbock-anchored district by 51 points in 2024.

But there would certainly be a fight to succeed Arrington as chair of the House Budget Committee. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) is second in seniority, but he’s running for governor. Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), who has been in Congress for 16 years, is third on the panel, followed by Reps. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) and Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.). We would expect Smucker to make a run for this gavel should Arrington bow out.

— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan

THE PUNCH POWER MATRIX

Who’s up, who’s down?

— Brendan Pedersen

… AND THERE’S MORE

Raskin’s Judiciary Committee moves: Rep. Jamie Raskin (Md.), the ranking Democrat, is making key minority staff changes on the House Judiciary Committee.

Julie Tagen, Raskin’s highly respected personal office chief of staff and the minority staff director at the Judiciary panel, is retiring. Tagen worked on John Kerry’s presidential campaign and then at the DNC, as well as serving as former Rep. Alan Grayson’s (D-Fla.) top aide. Tagen has been Raskin’s chief of staff since he first came to Congress in 2017. Tagen also served as the Democratic staff director on the Oversight Committee under Raskin.

“Julie Tagen, my trusted chief and staff director, has decided to retire in September after two decades of stellar public service on Capitol Hill,” Raskin said in a note announcing her departure, noting Tagen had been with him through Covid-19, Jan. 6, impeachment and more.

Arthur Ewenczyk, currently minority general counsel on Judiciary, will succeed Tagen as minority staff director. Ewenczyk served as a Democratic counsel on the Oversight Committee under Raskin and former Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.). Ewenczyk did a long stint in the Justice Department before coming to Capitol Hill.

Lauren Doney will become deputy staff director, while handling member engagement and services. Doney is a longtime Raskin aide, in addition to also being a former Grayson staffer.

Downtown Download. Nvidia, the chip giant, has hired Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck to lobby on AI and “[i]ssues related to international trade in the semiconductor industry.”

The Campaign. Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is airing a TV ad knocking Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and touting her own ties to GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who she hopes to succeed.

The 30-second spot features two pictures of Earle-Sears and Youngkin while linking Spanberger to former President Joe Biden and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Sears is spending roughly $200,000 on the buy, per AdImpact. The election to replace Youngkin, who can’t run for a consecutive term, is Nov. 4.

– Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

MOMENTS

CLIPS