The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Could Democrats really hold the Senate?

The Obamas bring down the house on DNC Night 2

McCarthy’s revenge fizzles out while Florida Senate race set

The Canvass rapid polling at the DNC

The Vault: Crypto’s ‘unprecedented’ spending spree

THE TOP

Could Democrats really hold the Senate?

Happy Wednesday morning.

CHICAGO — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer likes to remind everyone that he’s a perpetual optimist. During a convention week, it’s easy for that to verge into pure spin.

Despite facing their worst electoral map in years, Schumer and other top Democrats say their chances of holding the Senate are far better than they appear.

A mix of newfound enthusiasm for the top of the ticket thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris, plus what Democrats see as a repeat of Republicans’ “candidate quality” problem, has Schumer putting his usual optimism into overdrive.

“Everyone knows unity is the most important thing for us, and to avoid internecine fights — and there have been very few,” Schumer said during a roundtable with reporters here on Tuesday. “I stand by what I’ve been saying — and that is, we will keep the Senate, we may pick up a seat or two.”

Our eyes rolled, too. Yet even if Schumer’s analysis is correct, it still may not be enough to overcome a horrendous map and GOP advantages on key policy issues.

West Virginia is already a flip for Republicans thanks to Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement. Democrats would need to run the table in the remaining contests and win the White House just to have a 50-50 majority. Anything more requires them picking up seats in states like Florida or Texas. More on that in a bit.

Democrats would also need enough ticket-splitters in Ohio and Montana to keep those in their column, and that’s an increasingly rare phenomenon.

The world according to Schumer: The New York Democrat sees his candidates and incumbents benefitting from what President Joe Biden could never seem to capitalize on — the legislative accomplishments of the first two years of his presidency.

“People say, ‘Well, it didn’t work for Joe Biden.’ And it’s true. If you say I’m going to build 500 bridges in America, they shrug their shoulders,” Schumer said. “[But] it is really helping the popularity of our senators. Rightly or wrongly, the issue of [Biden’s] age got in the way before anything else could happen.”

Schumer has been pleading with his vulnerable incumbents to highlight the Senate’s work to pass bipartisan legislation on infrastructure, semiconductor chip manufacturing and more, which has already yielded new projects in battleground states.

As we wrote in Nevada earlier this month, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) is following Schumer’s guidance on this and leaning hard into it. So is Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.). Casey, however, is attending the convention this week while Rosen isn’t.

Where it gets tougher for Democrats is in Montana and Ohio, where former President Donald Trump is likely to win overwhelmingly. Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) aren’t attending this week’s convention for obvious reasons. Both are framing themselves as centrists who care more about what benefits their state than the national party.

Tester’s team tells us he’ll be raising money with Pearl Jam today in Missoula ahead of the band’s concert tomorrow at the University of Montana. Pearl Jam’s bassist Jeff Ament grew up with Tester in Big Sandy.

Candidate quality: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told us recently that he doesn’t see a “candidate quality” problem with the GOP’s slate of 2024 candidates compared to 2022. Wishful thinking, says Schumer.

Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin and Sam Brown in Nevada have all faced carpet-bagging allegations. Schumer referenced Mehmet Oz, the 2022 GOP candidate in Pennsylvania who had a residence in New Jersey, suggesting Republicans hadn’t learned their lesson.

Most of this year’s GOP candidates are also hugging Trump tightly and rejecting calls to appeal to Trump-skeptical voters, like Kari Lake in Arizona. At the same time, Trump is often outperforming them.

Abortion: At least four states with competitive Senate races will have abortion rights on the ballot — Nevada, Arizona, Montana and Florida. Democrats believe this will help their candidates in those states by boosting turnout on an issue that the party has been able to successfully leverage for political benefit.

Texas, Florida and the money game: Yes, we know Texas and Florida are a pipe dream for Democrats. But Schumer made some interesting comments about these two races. First, Schumer said he thinks Democrats will be competitive in both even if the DSCC decides not to spend money there. Schumer cited the super PAC aligned with his political operation, the Senate Majority PAC, as the reason.

“I can’t control what they do but we out-raise the Republicans in our super PAC all the time. I work hard at it,” Schumer said.

Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who’s challenging Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), is raising gobs of cash from small-dollar donors “because people really don’t like Ted Cruz around the country,” Schumer said.

Schumer was less bullish on Florida, citing the fact that Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is independently wealthy and can cut checks for his campaign.

“It’s going to be a lot closer than people think, but on that one, Scott’s got a lot of money,” Schumer said. “Some of these billionaires aren’t spending their money, but he is.”

— Andrew Desiderio

THE CONVENTION

The Obamas bring down the house on DNC Night 2

CHICAGO – A “fired up” former President Barack Obama closed out the second night of the Democratic National Convention, delivering a rousing speech calling on Americans to elect Vice President Kamala Harris as the next president.

Former First Lady Michelle Obama and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff also had prime-time speeches that were electric at times. The ceremonial roll call vote even mimicked a club atmosphere, complete with a Lil Jon cameo.

And the jumbotron piped in Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, from a packed campaign rally in Milwaukee — notably, the same venue where the Republican National Convention took place last month. What a difference a few weeks can make.

Obama’s balancing act: The Obamas remain popular — and galvanizing — figures in the Democratic Party. Chicago holds extra significance for the couple: Michelle is a native of the South Side, while Barack got his political start in the Windy City.

And then of course there’s the significance of Harris’ historic candidacy, a Black and South Asian woman who could break the highest glass ceiling. Who better to headline Night 2 than the first Black president and first lady?

But Barack Obama had to walk a fine line last night. Obama, who was reportedly one of the many Democrats privately skeptical of President Joe Biden’s path to victory, kicked off his speech by paying respect to his former vice president.

Obama hailed Biden as an “outstanding president who defended democracy at a moment of danger” and talked about how much he admired Biden’s “empathy and decency.”

“I’m proud to call him president,” Obama said, “but I’m even prouder to call him my friend.”

After taking pointed jabs at Trump, Obama then turned to praising Harris, whom he has known for decades, painting her as the rightful successor to the Obama-Biden mantles.

“America’s ready for a better story. We are ready for a President Kamala Harris. And Kamala Harris is ready for the job,” Obama said. “This is a person who has spent her life fighting on behalf of people who need a voice.”

Yet Obama also warned that for all the “incredible energy” and “memes” Democrats have generated in recent weeks, this will still be “a tight race in a closely divided country.” Perhaps that’s why, at one point, Obama also reprised his mantra, “Don’t boo, vote!”

The spouses: The crowd was loud with aws and laughter as Emhoff told the story of how he got set up on a blind date with Harris and how she became “Momala” to his two children. Emhoff offered a personal side of the vice president as he shared how his son had asked Harris to officiate his wedding after getting engaged.

Emhoff went into detail on the couple’s different religious beliefs. Emhoff shared about his Jewish background and how Harris “has connected me more deeply to my faith.” Emhoff praised the vice president for her work in fighting “against antisemitism and all forms of hate her whole career.”

The second gentleman fiercely advocated for Harris as a “joyful warrior” when talking about Harris’ background as attorney general of California and her time in the Senate.

“Kamala is a joyful warrior… Here’s the thing about joyful warriors: They’re still warriors. And Kamala is as tough as it comes,” Emhoff said. “Just ask the criminals, the global gangsters and the witnesses before the Senate Judiciary Committee.”

Then it was Michelle Obama’s turn. The former first lady — an equally skilled orator as her husband — made a heartfelt case for Harris’ election.

While echoing the warnings of how close the race is, she also struck an inspirational tone, declaring that “hope is making a comeback” and leading the crowd in a “Do something” call-and-response chant.

And speaking from a deeply personal place, the former first lady — who at the 2016 convention coined the phrase “When they go low, we go high” — went directly after Trump, delivering perhaps the most memorable lines of the night:

“For years, Donald Trump did everything in his power to try to make people fear us. His limited and narrow view of the world made him feel threatened by the existence of two hardworking, highly educated, successful people who also happened to be Black,” she said.

“I wanna know: Who is going to tell him the job he is currently seeking might just be one of those ‘black jobs?’”

– Melanie Zanona and Donna Baeck

THE CAMPAIGN

McCarthy’s revenge fizzles out while Florida Senate race set

If you were focused on the Democratic National Convention last night, you may have missed some major primary results from Tuesday. We’ve got you covered with our top takeaways:

Gaetz easily survives primary challenge fueled by McCarthy allies.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), the controversial hard-right House Republican who engineered the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, is all but certain to return to Congress. Gaetz easily won his 1st District primary against Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock. Gaetz’s triumph came amid millions of dollars of anti-Gaetz attack ads that aired in the district. The effort was backed by close allies of McCarthy.

In the end, the race wasn’t even close. With 94% of the vote in, Gaetz was leading by more than 40 points.

It’s Scott versus Mucarsel-Powell in Florida Senate race.

If Democrats want to have any hope of accomplishing the ambitious goal set by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of gaining seats, they need to win Florida. Their candidate in the Sunshine State will be former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.), who coasted to victory in the Democratic primary.

Mucarsel-Powell beat her closest challenger, businessman Stanley Campbell, by nearly 50 points and won in all but two counties in the state. Mucarsel-Powell has outraised Scott and has polled close to the incumbent in some eye-catching surveys. But the massive GOP voter registration edge in Florida and the state’s rightward lean will make a Democratic victory an uphill climb.

Haridopolos wins GOP primary to replace Posey.

Rep. Bill Posey’s (R-Fla.) successor is likely to be former state legislator Mike Haridopolos after a dominant primary win. Haridopolos beat his nearest competitor by more than 50 points.

Peltola above 50% in Alaska primary.

Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola advanced to the November general election in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, as did Republicans Nick Begich and Nancy Dahlstrom. Who the fourth candidate will be isn’t clear yet.

Peltola — one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents this fall — was leading with 50.1% of the vote, far ahead of the two Republicans.

In other campaign news: EMILYs List is endorsing Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who’s running against Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) in Wisconsin’s 3rd District. Cooke just emerged from a competitive primary versus Katrina Shankland.

— Max Cohen

The Canvass rapid polling at the DNC

We’re in Chicago this week and just like we did at the RNC, we’ll be conducting overnight and morning polling of top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders who are following the speeches and events happening at the Democratic National Convention.

The Canvass DNC survey — conducted in partnership with LSG — will bring you immediate reactions and insights from influential people on the events of each night of the convention. We will share the full results of our Tuesday overnight poll in today’s Midday edition.

We will also have a live discussion of the results in Chicago with Punchbowl News’ Jake Sherman and Phillip Morris, partner at LSG, at 2 p.m. CT/3 p.m. ET that will stream on X.

What to expect in Midday today: We asked the Canvass community for its thoughts on the key speeches made on the first two nights of the DNC. The speakers included President Joe Biden, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama. Several lawmakers, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), also spoke.

Top Hill staffers and K Street leaders will weigh in on the effectiveness of Biden’s speech in wooing swing voters and uniting the party behind Vice President Kamala Harris.

We also asked The Canvass respondents for their thoughts on Harris’ choice of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate and whether they think he’s the best choice to beat former President Donald Trump.

When we posed the same question to top Hill staffers and K Street leaders during the GOP convention last month, nearly 80% said Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), was the wrong pick for the Republican ticket. Most preferred Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

It will be interesting to see what they think of Walz and his ability to help Harris and Democrats in November.

— Elvina Nawaguna

The Vault: Crypto’s ‘unprecedented’ spending spree

First in The Vault: It’s not just you. The crypto industry’s campaign spending in 2024 really is unlike anything we’ve seen in modern politics, according to a report that will be published later today by the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen.

The report, which you can read here, compares the crypto sector’s spending to previous cycles and other corporate interests. In 2024, no industry comes close to crypto in terms of corporate election spending.

Using campaign finance data compiled by Open Secrets, the Public Citizen report estimates that crypto corporations have spent at least $119 million in the 2024 election through Q2. That’s nearly half of all corporate money spent in this cycle, or 48%, and it doesn’t include millions of dollars donated by individual crypto executives.

This year’s deluge is historic. Crypto companies are now the second largest campaign spending group since 2010, when the Supreme Court removed major restrictions on campaign finance on First Amendment grounds. The non-renewable energy sector still holds on to the No.1 spot by a decent margin.

“Direct corporate election spending at this scale is unprecedented,” the report says.

How unprecedented? After this cycle, crypto companies will account for nearly one out of every six campaign dollars spent by corporations since 2010.

“Crypto corporations’ total spending in the past three election cycles — $129 million — already amounts to 15% of all known corporate contributions” since 2010, the report said. The vast majority of that total, or 92%, is from 2024 alone.

Much of that spending has flown through the Fairshake crypto super PAC network. According to Public Citizen’s analysis, Fairshake has received more corporate funding than any other super PAC since 2010 except for one — the Senate Leadership Fund.

Public Citizen also noted Fairshake’s tendency to spend big in targeted races without ever actually mentioning digital assets. That includes the PAC’s attacks on Reps. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.).

“Rather than criticizing candidates for not sufficiently supporting crypto, both attack campaigns smeared the candidates’ using unflattering claims having nothing to do with crypto policy,” the report said.

The impact: Public Citizens’ report also attempts to map the influence this spending has had over the course of the election. One big development the report nods to is Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s embrace of the crypto sector last week.

But the consumer watchdog is also concerned about the broader legacy of this spending blitz.

“If crypto corporations are successful in directly leveraging their financial power into political power, more corporations and business sectors may follow the same playbook,” the report said.

– Brendan Pedersen

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