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LAS VEGAS — Republicans think they’ve found their blueprint for how to win competitive Senate seats in the Donald Trump era. Now they just have to wait and see if it’ll actually work.

After consecutive cycles of disappointing and sometimes embarrassing losses in winnable states, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm adopted a new strategy this year of boosting certain candidates in GOP primaries whom they believe have the best chance to win the general election.

For Republicans, there’s no better microcosm of that shift than Sam Brown and his bid to oust Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) in 2024. In a wide-ranging interview here, Brown detailed his strategy to not only get through what could be a bruising primary against far-right Trump-aligned candidates, but to flip a Senate seat that could help Republicans retake the majority.

And it’ll all come with the backing of senior Republicans in Washington.

“Whether it’s me deciding to run, or senators agreeing to get involved early and support a [candidate], that’s a natural outcome of how dire of a situation we’re in,” Brown, 39, told us in a 30-minute interview off a casino floor. “That’s something that everyone is desperate for — not just voters, but even the senators who are supporting me are desperate for someone who can connect.”

Brown, a decorated Army veteran and graduate of West Point, was nearly killed in Afghanistan in 2008 when a roadside bomb exploded and set him on fire. A Purple Heart recipient, Brown suffered permanent burn wounds and spent three years in rehabilitation. He ran in the GOP Senate primary in 2022 and lost as D.C. Republicans coalesced around Adam Laxalt and Brown ran as an outsider.

Now, Brown is GOP leaders’ top choice to take on Rosen in a state where Republicans have gained significant ground in recent elections. In fact, NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) is hosting a fundraiser for Brown in Washington in September — along with 20 other GOP senators, including practically the entire leadership — according to an invitation we obtained.

Less than a year ago, Nevada featured the closest Senate race in the country when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) defeated Laxalt by just 8,000 votes. That same year, GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo won his race in part by appealing to independents, whereas Laxalt was focused on driving up turnout among the GOP base.

Brown is already previewing a strategy that mimics that of Lombardo. It involves courting unaffiliated voters — who are now the largest voting bloc in the state, according to voter registration records — and largely avoiding politically toxic issues that could hurt him in a general election.

That means strategically ignoring the former president and many of the Trump-centric themes that define the campaigns of his primary opponents, like the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen.

For the past few election cycles, leadership-aligned Senate Republicans have complained that Trump’s influence has led to the party’s voters nominating lackluster candidates in otherwise winnable states, allowing Democrats to win the majority and then expand it in 2022.

Brown is being exceptionally cautious when it comes to Trump. He declined to say whether he’s comfortable with sharing the GOP ticket with Trump in Nevada, which will be competitive once again at the presidential level as well.

“I’m comfortable with anyone challenging Joe Biden and ultimately defeating Joe Biden,” Brown said, adding that he’ll support the GOP nominee regardless of who wins it.

Brown was a staunch Trump supporter in 2020 and once faulted Laxalt for not doing enough to help Trump challenge the election results that year. This time around, he’s not endorsing anyone or saying who would be the most helpful to his race.

For Brown, criticizing Trump could backfire, especially if the pair will share the GOP ticket in 2024, as appears probable. And Trump remains popular among Republicans in Nevada, though the former president hasn’t endorsed in the Senate contest yet.

Brown’s chief GOP opponents, election-denier Jim Marchant and former U.S. ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, are actively courting Trump’s endorsement and basing their entire campaigns on the former president’s platform. But Republicans back in Washington believe that running exclusively on Trumpism and election lies isn’t a winning strategy in Nevada, as evidenced by Marchant’s loss in the secretary of state’s race last year.

Still, Marchant and Gunter are intensifying their attacks on Brown. Democrats, meanwhile, are amplifying those criticisms — leading to concerns that this could drag down Brown in the general election. One is a recent CNN story alleging that Brown’s PAC used donations to pay down debt from a previous campaign.

But Brown is not going on offense against his primary opponents, instead focusing squarely on Rosen and hammering home the GOP’s message on inflation, energy prices and government spending. A recent poll commissioned by a super PAC supporting Brown found that he has a commanding lead over the rest of the field, but nearly half of GOP voters were undecided.

The NRSC, under Daines’ chairmanship, has all but endorsed Brown as well as Tim Sheehy in Montana and Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia. All three are running against candidates in the primary whom Republicans believe would have a worse chance of winning the general election. Each of these states, of course, could determine which party controls the Senate.

Brown is in regular contact with Daines and praised him and the other senators who have backed him — including Senate Minority Whip John Thune and GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).

“I’m grateful that we were able to establish a connection, a relationship, and mutual respect and trust in one another,” Brown said of his relationship with Daines. “If we had more Steve Daineses, we’d be better off.”

Brown, of course, is a direct beneficiary of the NRSC’s strategy shift in GOP primaries, so it’s no surprise that he’s happy with Daines. Under Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), the NRSC didn’t wade into primaries, often leading to GOP nominees who were too extreme to win a general election in a swing state. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell famously referenced this when he suggested Republicans had a “candidate quality” issue in the last campaign.

Now, Brown finds himself as the top choice of Republicans in Washington while also campaigning as an outsider. His success or failure will tell us a lot about how Republicans will approach similar contests in the future.

— Andrew Desiderio

We’re going to North Dakota! Punchbowl News founders Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman will interview Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) on Friday, Sept. 8 at 12:30 p.m. CT/1:30 p.m. ET in Bismarck, N.D. The conversation is the second in a three-part series presented by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses and will focus on the challenges facing small business owners in rural America. Afterward, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon will join Anna and Jake for a fireside chat. RSVP here!

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