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Happy Friday morning.

Let’s talk about Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn.

The prevailing wisdom throughout the 117th Congress has been that if House Democrats lost their majority, the Big Three would be replaced in the leadership, ending their generation-long run atop the Democratic hierarchy. Pelosi and Hoyer have been the No. 1 and No. 2 for House Democrats for nearly 20 years. Clyburn joined the triumvirate after the 2006 election.

But what if Democrats don’t lose the House, certainly a possibility now in a rapidly changing political landscape, although admittedly a small one?

Or more realistically, what if Democratic losses are at the lower end of projections, say between 10 and 20 seats? In this scenario, Democrats would still lose their majority, but what would that mean for Pelosi-Hoyer-Clyburn, all three of whom are now in their 80s? Would they stick around for the presidential election in 2024, hoping to win the House back? How would this impact younger Democrats who have been positioning themselves to take over next year?

And there’s another angle to explore here – What does it mean for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Minority Whip Steve Scalise and GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik if Republicans don’t win the House or only take the majority by a narrow margin?

Last November, McCarthy was claiming this could be 2010 all over again for Democrats, who lost 63 seats that cycle. Clearly that’s not going to occur. Republicans are still favored to win the majority on Election Day. But what if the GOP majority is so chaotic, so unwieldy, that McCarthy can’t run it effectively, similar to what former Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan faced? How big of a majority does McCarthy need to become speaker in the first place, since there are some Republicans who won’t vote for him on the floor come Jan. 3?

We’ll start with Democrats and then move to Republicans for this pre-Labor Day snapshot.

We’ve spoken to a number of Democratic lawmakers and aides during the last few days. There isn’t any discussion by Pelosi, Hoyer or Clyburn about staying in leadership or what happens to them after Nov. 8. And no one knows what they’ll do at this point.

Yet it’s clear that if Democrats were to somehow hold onto the House, there’s no expectation that Pelosi would leave. That feeling has only grown since Democrats’ upset victory in Tuesday’s special election in New York’s 19th District. That win was the latest evidence that the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v. Wade, coupled with some legislative successes by Democrats, has shifted the political landscape. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are rising, gas prices are falling, and Democrats’ edge in fundraising – especially online fundraising – is growing.

No one is predicting a Democratic victory in the midterms, although they acknowledge the political winds have certainly shifted in their favor.

Here’s Pelosi at a Medicare prescription drug event Wednesday:

The 82-year-old Pelosi has spoken both publicly and privately about her concerns if Republicans take back the House, saying she “fears for democracy.” Multiple Democrats we spoke to said they don’t think that’s an exaggeration on her part. Pelosi genuinely believes that she is one of the only things standing between a Republican-controlled House and the unraveling of democracy.

A senior Democratic aide said:

Drew Hammill, Pelosi’s deputy chief of staff and spokesperson, said this when asked about possible post-Nov. 8 scenarios: “The speaker is not on a shift. She’s on a mission.”

The 83-year-old Hoyer and the 82-year-old Clyburn – both of whom are widowers – aren’t seen as being in any hurry to leave Congress, either in the majority or minority.

One House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Hoyer and Clyburn “want to stay regardless.”

“I feel like Hoyer more than anyone is focused on his future post-November and he has no plans to go anywhere,” added a senior aide.

So when do things change and how? In many ways, this is the same question that we have been reporting on for more than a decade. We’ve watched the Big Three hold onto power through big wins and epic losses, while a parade of ambitious younger Democrats found themselves stuck, with no possibility to advance up the leadership ladder.

But in some ways, things are different now. Pelosi previously agreed to term limits that would have her step down after this year. Now, more than ever, the caucus is filled with younger members who want a leadership team that talks and governs like they would.

“The caucus is desperate for new leadership,” one member told us.

There’s a “New Three,” as we’ve noted before – Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries, Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark and Caucus Vice Chair Pete Aguilar – hoping to step up. Not to mention other ambitious pols, including Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who are eyeing leadership spots when they become available.

But as Pelosi always says, power is not given, it’s taken. And so far, no one is willing to try to take hers away.

As one top Democratic aide told us: “Would anyone directly challenge her? There’s a very strong appetite for change but nobody wants to go on a suicide mission.”

Major challenges remain on the Republican side. If the GOP takes the majority by a slim margin, can McCarthy hold on? This is the question bouncing around Republican leadership ranks at this moment. And the answer here isn’t clear. McCarthy has said he expects to win several dozen seats from Democrats and has frequently indicated that one of the largest majorities in history is within reach. Coming up short of that could present him troubles.

This fact remains – Republicans are just a handful of seats from the majority. Anything short of a 10 to 20-seat net gain would be seen as a disappointing result for the GOP.

In the last few days, we’ve gotten unsolicited messages from nervous Republicans about whether GOP leadership has an adequate strategy to navigate the political environment following the special-election loss in New York. One Republican pointed out that several Republicans – including NRCC Chair Tom Emmer of Minnesota – are already eyeing leadership slots in a Republican majority that’s not yet won. In other words, the knives are beginning to come out for GOP leaders.

And, we’ll add, if Republicans don’t take the majority, McCarthy and Co. could easily be looking for new jobs.

A big day for the economy

There will be two key economic developments to watch today.

First, the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for July will be released at 8:30 a.m. Of all the measures of inflation used by policymakers, the PCE covers the broadest set of goods and services.

That will be followed at 10 a.m. EST by Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s widely anticipated keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell’s speech, coming shortly after the latest PCE release, will be parsed intensely around the globe for signs of how much and for how long the Fed intends to keep raising interest rates.

Programming note: This is our last edition until Sept. 5.

– John Bresnahan, Heather Caygle and Jake Sherman

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