Schatz, with Schumer’s backing, locks up whip race

IN THIS EDITION

Schatz locks up whip race as Schumer backs Hawaii Democrat

Vance heads to Indiana on redistricting, Cali Dems eye 5 GOP seats

The Vault: House charts GSE rework for early 2026

Unrig Our Economy hits Gonzales on Medicaid cuts

Hunt jumps in PA-01 Democratic primary

THE TOP

Schatz locks up whip race as Schumer backs Hawaii Democrat

Happy Tuesday morning.

Scoop: The race for Senate Democratic whip is essentially over.

Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz has secured commitments from a majority of Democratic senators in his bid to become their next whip, including a crucial new endorsement from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Schatz has locked up support from a “comfortable majority” of the 47-member Senate Democratic Caucus, according to a source familiar with the matter. This puts the 52-year-old Schatz on a glide path to becoming his party’s No. 2 leader in the Senate beginning in 2027.

The news, combined with Schumer’s support, also makes Schatz the favorite to eventually succeed the New York Democrat as the party’s Senate leader. Schumer, 74, is up for reelection in 2028.

In a statement to Punchbowl News, Schumer revealed that he’s been helping Schatz win commitments and public endorsements for his bid:

Schatz, who has long aspired to the post, is the only declared candidate in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Whip Dick Durbin.

While the Democratic leadership elections are still 15 months away, securing the requisite support at this early stage — as well as that of Schumer — will almost certainly discourage any other Democrat from getting in the race.

It’s a reflection of the intense behind-the-scenes work that Schatz has been doing in the months following Durbin’s announcement. Schatz, though, has been laying the groundwork for a leadership run for several years, as we’ve reported.

“I’m grateful for the support from so many of my colleagues,” Schatz told us. “I intend to continue earning their support in the months to come.”

Here’s what Schatz said about securing Schumer’s support, lauding the New York Democrat for passing the Inflation Reduction Act and infrastructure funding:

More endorsements: A dozen Democratic senators have publicly backed Schatz for the job, including two new rank-and-file endorsers on Tuesday: Sens. Tammy Duckworth (Ill.) and Andy Kim (N.J.).

Kim, a freshman, said in a statement that he “immediately” noticed Schatz’s deep involvement with the caucus’ whip operations. Kim said Schatz “knows the Senate like the back of his hand.”

Duckworth praised Schatz as someone who “helps bring all wings of the Democratic Caucus together.”

A long time coming: Schatz currently serves as chief deputy whip. Senators of both parties see him as an effective communicator for Democrats who can bridge divides between progressives and moderates. Despite being a loyal partisan, Schatz also has close relationships with key Republicans, too.

A few years ago, Schatz hired Reema Dodin, Durbin’s former floor director, as his chief of staff — a move that represented a critical step toward a leadership run.

Some Democrats had wanted Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), currently the No. 3 Senate Democrat, to run for the whip job. But Klobuchar is believed to be considering a 2028 presidential run. Klobuchar said in April that it was a “mistake” to be talking about the whip race this early, arguing that Democrats should be laser-focused on fighting President Donald Trump.

In March, we wrote about how Schatz’s vote in favor of Republicans’ stopgap government funding bill put his leadership ambitions into greater focus. By aligning himself with Schumer — who faced intense criticism over the CR move — Schatz showed his colleagues that he’s willing to take difficult votes in order to shield other Democrats from political backlash.

But the upcoming government-funding fight this fall will likely be even tougher. Schatz is a senior appropriator and has been pushing for a bipartisan spending process while skewering Republicans for pushing a rescissions package. Schatz has also hammered the White House over its attempts to subvert Congress’ power of the purse.

Schatz — a former lieutenant governor, state legislator and chair of the Hawaii Democratic Party — was appointed to the Senate in Dec. 2012 following the death of the legendary Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye. Schatz won a special election in 2014 to finish out Inouye’s term, and then he easily won reelection in 2016 and 2022.

Schatz has built a strong fundraising operation. Since the 2022 cycle, Schatz has raised more than $5 million just on X alone.

Schatz’s campaign committee, which has nearly $2 million on hand as of June 30, gave $450,000 to the DSCC late last cycle. His leadership PAC, Hawaii PAC, donated $50,000 to the DSCC this year after giving $80,000 to the committee last cycle, according to FEC records. Hawaii PAC has donated another $45,000 to Democratic senators this year.

— Andrew Desiderio

REDISTRICTING WARS

Vance heads to Indiana on redistricting, Cali Dems eye 5 GOP seats

News: Vice President JD Vance is considering a trip to Indianapolis on Thursday, where he’s expected to talk to Republican Gov. Mike Braun and GOP legislative leaders about redrawing the state’s congressional map, according to multiple sources familiar with the plans.

The trip by Vance isn’t formally scheduled yet. But the White House and GOP allies have been exploring redistricting Indiana’s map as part of their broad push to create more Republican seats across the country.

Indiana Republicans control seven of the state’s nine congressional seats. Republicans believe they could easily redraw Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.) out of his northwestern district. Some in President Donald Trump’s orbit believe Republicans can target both Mrvan and the Indianapolis-based Rep. Andre Carson (D-Ind.). But most Hoosier State experts see this as a long shot.

The Indiana legislature could prove a big hurdle here. The state legislative leaders are immensely powerful and it’s not clear there’s any appetite among them to redistrict. As we’ve noted before, these politicians are more similar stylistically to former Vice President Mike Pence than the MAGA movement.

Golden State news: Democrats in California’s congressional delegation have privately agreed to a new congressional map that could net them as many as five seats in 2026, according to multiple lawmakers and aides close to the issue.

The GOP targets: Reps. Ken Calvert and Darrell Issa in southern California; Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley; Rep. Doug LaMalfa in the north and Rep. Kevin Kiley along the Nevada border.

This proposed new congressional map would comply with the Voting Rights Act, per those sources. Previously, top Democrats worried they wouldn’t be able to squeeze out five more blue districts in the state while keeping key majority-Latino districts intact.

This a big deal because such a California congressional map could negate the controversial GOP redistricting plan in Texas that creates five new red seats. It would just about even up the House playing field ahead of the 2026 midterms.

The map. Calvert and Kiley are relatively easy to target because of their proximity to Democratic-dominated cities. To redraw LaMalfa’s northern California district, Democrats would need to pull blue areas from the districts held by Democratic Reps. Jared Huffman and Mike Thompson.

Valadao and Issa are slightly more difficult to turn into Democratic-favored districts, but the two GOP lawmakers could certainly see their seats become much more competitive.

A potential big winner in this proposal is GOP Rep. Young Kim, who isn’t on the target list. It’s likely her Orange County district will have to turn deep red to help protect neighboring Democrats, including Reps. Derek Tran and Dave Min.

The proposal would also shore up vulnerable Democratic members, including Reps. Adam Gray and Josh Harder, who found themselves in districts that Trump won in 2024.

No vulnerable Democratic seat is expected to get more difficult for those members under the new map, per sources familiar with the proposal.

But remember, redistricting isn’t as simple in California as it is in Texas. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is asking the voters to undo the independent redistricting commission and let the legislature enact this map.

This is going to be expensive, and it might not work.

– Ally Mutnick, John Bresnahan, Jake Sherman and Heather Caygle

The Vault: House charts GSE rework for early 2026

News: The House Financial Services Committee plans to introduce legislation to overhaul the role of government-sponsored enterprises in the U.S. mortgage market in the first quarter of 2026.

Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), who chairs the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance, said in an interview that the panel would dive into one of the thorniest policy issues on the financial services beat in the new year.

“There’s going to be GSE discussions happening in our subcommittee for Q1 next year,” Flood said.

The Art of Article 1: Most of the chatter around Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has revolved around the Trump administration this year. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte has taken on an unusually prominent role in financial politics, and President Donald Trump made big headlines in May when he announced his desire to take the GSEs “public.”

But Flood, along with House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.), continues to emphasize that Congress must play a role in releasing the GSEs from government conservatorship.

Congress, Flood argues, can help smooth off the edges of any bumpy transitions for the mortgage market.

“There’s this idea that the administration can do a lot of the heavy lifting,” Flood said. “What I’d like to remind people is that rates are a little higher than they have been in the last five years. Any injection of uncertainty into capital for home purchases is going to rattle people.”

The policy: We asked Flood what needs to happen for the GSEs to be released from conservatorship to minimize mortgage instability.

Flood said member education was a big piece of the puzzle, himself included. And the dynamics here are tricky.

“You’ve gotta remember: I’m learning with people that have ideas about what should happen with GSE reform, and they’re also shareholders,” Flood said. “You’re playing with big chips on the table. Everybody’s connected to this machine.”

There’s also one big nut for lawmakers to crack here — whether the GSEs will continue to be backstopped by the federal government. That’s been the case since Fannie and Freddie were taken into conservatorship during the 2008 financial crisis.

Trump himself has said the GSEs will “keep” the government’s implicit guarantee, but it’s far from clear what that would mean in practice.

Flood and other House Republicans want to have a conversation about whether reform can take “the full faith and credit of the United States off the hook at the end of the day.”

“Everybody still wants the implicit guarantee,” Flood said. “It is the big question.”

– Brendan Pedersen

LONE STAR STATE

Unrig Our Economy hits Gonzales on Medicaid cuts

News: Liberal outside group Unrig Our Economy is launching a $350,000 ad buy targeting Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) over his vote to back the One Big Beautiful Bill.

“Rep. Tony Gonzales just voted to cut Medicaid and health care coverage…all to fund tax breaks for billionaires,” the ad’s narrator says, before urging voters to tell Gonzales “to stop cutting health care.”

The latest ad buy comes on the heels of a larger $2 million effort from Unrig Our Economy that slams Texas GOP Reps. Lance Gooden, Monica De La Cruz, Beth Van Duyne and Dan Crenshaw for supporting the reconciliation package.

Unrig Our Economy is trying to squeeze GOP incumbents who may see their districts shift if state lawmakers pass new House maps.

But based on our reporting, the proposed Texas gerrymander may leave the state’s incumbents in fairly safe red seats.

Gonzales represents a west Texas seat that encompasses large swathes of the U.S.-Mexico border. Gonzales won reelection by 24 points last November.

— Max Cohen

THE CAMPAIGN

Hunt jumps in PA-01 Democratic primary

News: Tracy Hunt, a Bucks County attorney, is launching a campaign for Pennsylvania’s 1st District and the chance to unseat Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.). In Hunt’s launch video, the candidate recounts how he used to be a registered Republican but became a Democrat after “watching Republicans embrace authoritarianism” and President Donald Trump.

“The tent is big enough, even for guys like me,” Hunt says. “There’s a lot of us, and our ranks are growing each day.”

Democrats have long faltered in Pennsylvania’s 1st District, a seat that consistently reelects Fitzpatrick despite voting for Democrats at the top of the ticket. Fitzpatrick won last fall by 12 points even as Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district by one point.

Hunt has competition in the Democratic primary, though. Bob Harvie, who serves on the Bucks County board of supervisors, is also running.

— Max Cohen

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