Johnson's to-do list for Tuesday

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson’s tall tasks going into today

Senate may skip the NDAA again

The Vault: Why Dems want Obamacare deal now

Jeffries silent on Mamdani endorsement as pressure grows

THE TOP

Johnson’s tall tasks going into today

Happy Tuesday morning.

Speaker Mike Johnson has a big day ahead of him.

His goal is to hold a vote on a stopgap government funding bill by the end of the week, yet House Republican leadership still hasn’t released the text of the legislation yet.

So Johnson will walk into a House Republican Conference meeting at 9 a.m. this morning with several big items on his checklist to build support for the measure.

1) Johnson will have to make the pitch that a CR until just before Thanksgiving is a smart play. House Republicans can only lose two votes to pass the bill on their own.

As of now, rank-and-file Republicans seem relatively calm. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is a hard no. Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) and Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) have all expressed some level of skepticism.

But the GOP leadership and White House feel like they can turn some of those skeptics. There’s ample evidence that conservatives fold when President Donald Trump tells them to. And Trump is watching the funding process closely, even as he leaves for London this morning.

The House Freedom Caucus is quiet. HFC Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) has said his members don’t like the November deadline.

But normally volatile conservatives like Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) are running for other offices and need Trump’s help, so they’re unusually pliant. After a meeting Monday night, the most skeptical remark we heard came from Rep. Mike Cloud (R-Texas), who said he wants to know what the “play call” is after Nov. 20. That’s a good question.

2) House Administration Committee Chair Bryan Steil (R-Wis.) will present his ideas on how to bolster security for House members.

The CR will include more funding to protect lawmakers. But Steil and Johnson are trying to build consensus on how far the House should go – and how much money it should spend – in addressing these very real threats. There’s risk in bringing this to the conference – consensus is rarely found in HC-5. But Johnson doesn’t want to make a unilateral decision without buy-in.

The Other Three’s goals. Johnson’s maneuvering is just one part of a complex matrix of decision-making by party leaders in both chambers. Here’s the rest.

Schumer. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is at the center of this entire funding clash. If you listen to Schumer, you come away believing he’s prepared to dive into a government shutdown. Schumer said Monday that Republicans refuse to negotiate and are “causing [a] shutdown.”

The New York Democrat clearly wants Republicans to agree to insert an extension of enhanced premium tax credits for Obamacare into the bill, something the GOP has refused to entertain. This would be his minimum goal.

It’s not hard to understand Schumer’s politics here. Schumer got walloped in March when he helped Republicans avoid a shutdown. So he has to take a hard line now, especially since the Trump administration’s hostility toward Congress — through rescissions and impoundment — has only increased since then.

Yet there are several potential weaknesses in Schumer’s position. Schumer seems to believe Democrats could win a shutdown based on the fact that Republicans aren’t negotiating. But who got blamed for the 2013 and 2019 shutdowns? The instigating party — Republicans. At that time, Republicans tried to play the “Democrats-won’t-negotiate” card. It didn’t work.

Trump’s poll numbers are sliding, especially on the economy. Does a shutdown crisis boost support for Trump?

And here’s the bigger issue – what do Democrats predict will happen if they shutter federal agencies? Do they think they’ll get Obamacare subsidies extended? What if they get nothing and Trump just pummels them every day on TV?

The one thing any leader needs to consider when getting into a shutdown is how they’ll get out of it. Schumer even noted this back in March. We’ll also point out that a shutdown gives Trump and OMB chief Russ Vought — whom Schumer has called “evil” — very wide discretion over which agencies to keep open.

“The executive has some flexibility on what they consider essential. There are some balances to that, but that’s judicial. So it could get complicated,” acknowledged Sen. Jeff Merkley (Ore.), the top Democrat on the Budget Committee.

Wouldn’t that be worse than a clean CR? Merkley’s response: He’s a “hell no” on any continuation of the GOP’s “families lose and billionaires win” policies.

Schumer has cards here, no doubt. The Obamacare tax credits are popular and some vulnerable moderate Republicans are saying they should be extended. Plus, Senate Republicans need 60 votes to pass a CR. If Senate Majority Leader John Thune won’t negotiate even on that, Schumer thinks he can pin the blame for a shutdown on Republicans.

Jeffries. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries took a hard line during the March funding fight, only to be left hanging by Schumer. The two New York Democrats are talking very frequently now and seem to be more aligned — at this moment.

Jeffries’ members also seem ready for a shutdown.

Jeffries is saying very little about what he wants from Republicans in exchange for Democratic votes. He first wants to see if Johnson can get a CR through his chamber. And if Senate Democrats block the CR, then the negotiations truly begin.

Thune. The South Dakota Republican has been remarkably consistent during this debate. Thune has said he won’t give in to Democratic demands to address health care in a short-term funding bill, and he’s doubling down on a bipartisan appropriations process for FY2026 despite possible tensions with House Republicans. On Monday, Thune played back Schumer’s own words lamenting the harms of a shutdown.

As of this moment, it seems like Thune and Johnson are running a similar play to March: Jamming a CR through the House with only GOP votes and daring Senate Democrats to shut down the government.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio, Laura Weiss and Max Cohen

NEW: Join us on Tuesday, Sept. 30, at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas). We’ll sit down with Van Duyne to discuss news of the day and the economic impact of creators across the country and in Washington as part of our series, “The Creator Economy,” presented by YouTube. RSVP Now!

DEFENSE FORECAST

Senate may skip the NDAA again

Senate Republicans — who hammered Democrats for failing to pass their version of the annual defense authorization bill last year — may be on track to repeat history.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune projected optimism Monday that senators could still get their version of the annual defense policy bill over the finish line and kickstart formal talks with the House.

But GOP aides have privately acknowledged the path forward remains uncertain.

“I’d like to get it done here in the next few days if possible,” Thune told us Monday. “We’re trying to get the second manager’s package hotlined on both sides and then an agreement on the number of amendments that we would vote on on the floor. So it’s in the works.”

The prospect of securing floor time or voting agreements is far from assured. Republicans are prioritizing the first batch of sub-Cabinet nominees they’re set to confirm under the chamber’s new rules this week. They still need to burn a few more days of floor time, with a confirmation vote on the nominees slated for Thursday. After that, government funding — with a potential shutdown looming — is the priority.

And the closer we get to December, taking up floor time on the Senate’s version of the NDAA gets less enticing, given that senators will need to pass the compromise version by year-end anyway.

Yet senators are always eager to put their mark on the NDAA through a formal floor process.

“I’d like to see us get to the floor and have some amendments. The old-fashioned way,” Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said in an interview.

Looking back. Leading Republicans loudly bashed Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer last September for not putting the Senate’s version of the NDAA on the floor.

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said in a floor speech at the time that Schumer was “playing with fire.” Asked about potentially replicating that situation this year, Cornyn said Monday it’s “premature to know what’s going to happen with the NDAA right now.”

GOP aides have argued the circumstances surrounding the current delay are different, noting that Democrats have forced Thune to burn valuable floor time all year to confirm non-controversial nominees.

But Democrats say passage of the NDAA is more important right now. “We’re voting at 8 o’clock tonight on the Fed board of governors,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told us. “Why wouldn’t we vote on the defense bill?”

Republicans also say that Schumer’s move last week to force a vote on releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files — which he triggered as part of the ongoing NDAA floor process — was an affront to the bipartisanship normally seen during this annual defense policy debate.

Senate GOP leaders insist they can still process their chamber’s version of the bill, even if it slips to October. That’s because floor time will open up dramatically once Republicans clear the full backlog of nominations Democrats have blocked.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), the top Armed Services Democrat, isn’t ruling out the potential for filing cloture on the underlying bill and passing it, without debate on amendments.

“I’m still of the mind that we could get the bill done,” Reed said.

— Briana Reilly and Andrew Desiderio

The Vault: Why Dems want Obamacare deal now

Congress is driving toward a showdown with the looming Obamacare cliff at the center of the fight. It’s shaping up to be a big test for leaders in both parties.

GOP leadership won’t touch the issue in their CR this week, though they’ve expressed some openness to discussing extending the enhanced tax credits that expire at year’s end. But Democrats are demanding that the stopgap funding bill address health care now.

There are multiple factors that could force the fight at the Sept. 30 deadline. Senate Democrats are under intense pressure politically to show they’ll battle Republicans. There could also be a policy fallout from a delay.

CBO has estimated that 1.5 million more people would go uninsured if Congress permanently extends the tax credits on Dec. 31 compared to an earlier enactment date, according to analysis provided to House Democratic leadership and reviewed by Punchbowl News.

The nonpartisan office compared the impact of a permanent extension on a timeline that would allow insurers to account for it when setting premiums versus a Dec. 31 passage. CBO said the average benchmark premium would be about 4% higher in 2026 if Congress waits that long. An extension would also cost $10 billion less, per the analysis.

That’s all assuming there’s a permanent extension of the subsidies, which is highly unlikely. But it indicates the timing could have a real impact.

People will start getting notices in a few weeks about new premiums, and open enrollment begins Nov. 1.

Democrats’ posture. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) are holding a news conference this morning on the Obamacare cliff, a sign Democrats are working to ramp up pressure this week.

Baldwin said the subsidies are “very time sensitive in terms of all health insurance costs.”

“We need to have a short-term CR that allows us to finish the appropriations process, pass the bills we were just talking about, and restore some of the damage done in the big, ugly bill to health care,” Baldwin said.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) told us there’s an urgency to get something done quickly.

“We’ve already got health clinics closing in Virginia,” Warner said. “This is going to be a disaster. And I think many of my Republican [colleagues] in their heart know it is.”

GOP status. Republicans, meanwhile, are all over the map on this issue.

A group of Senate Republicans is working on a proposal to extend the Obamacare subsidies in some form. Politico first reported on the effort.

There’s been growing interest among GOP senators for the last few months in addressing the cliff, along with a push from vulnerable House Republicans. Yet it’s still not an easy compromise for Republicans, many of whom oppose the subsidies.

— Laura Weiss and Samantha Handler

THE MINORITY

Jeffries silent on Mamdani endorsement as pressure grows

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries can’t get away from Zohran Mamdani.

It’s a huge week for House Democrats as they work to hone their messaging on the looming government shutdown. But the question of whether or not Democratic congressional leaders will back their party’s nominee for mayor in their native New York City remains a huge topic on Capitol Hill.

Consider what’s happened since Saturday.

First, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) publicly chastised congressional Democratic leadership for failing to endorse Mamdani. Then New York Gov. Kathy Hochul endorsed him. Shortly after, Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), who represents a battleground district on Long Island, said he wouldn’t support Mamdani.

Jeffries only met Mamdani for the first time in mid-July, almost two months ago. They met a second time in August. Weeks later, there’s still no endorsement, or an announcement that one isn’t happening.

Through a spokesperson, Jeffries swiped back at Van Hollen for wading into the dispute. But Jeffries’ hesitation has kept the issue in the forefront. Will he or won’t he?

“People ask, but I guess he’s taking his time,” said Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.), an early Mamdani backer. “I think that they have been meeting and so on. I hope it happens before November.”

Most House Democrats, even progressives, have been giving Jeffries latitude. In interviews Monday evening, several declined to criticize him directly but urged all Democrats to unite behind Mamdani.

“He’s focused on what the Democratic response needs to be on stopping the shutdown,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said of Jeffries.

Yet the endorsement question isn’t going away. Mamdani himself huddled with members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus over the weekend at their retreat, while House Republicans continue to hammer the controversy daily.

As we’ve said many times, Jeffries is extremely cautious. And he has to balance competing priorities, including his Brooklyn constituency and the battleground Democrats who need to run tough races to win the majority.

“We spent four or five years running away from the socialist label. It’s really hard to embrace it,” Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.) said. “We’re not gonna take back the House with the Mamdani message.”

– Ally Mutnick

… AND THERE’S MORE

News: We’ve got a bunch of news for you this morning on the latest campaign updates and Hill moves.

— House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain is hosting Mehmet Oz, the administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, to talk to members about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the rural hospital funds. States can apply for the funds beginning today.

— Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) will announce this morning that he is running for Wake County attorney general, a post that covers Raleigh.

— Phoebe Keller is joining Senate Commerce Committee Republicans as communications director. Keller is moving over from Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo’s (R-Idaho) staff, where she was communications advisor during the GOP’s push to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill. Keller is also an AEI alum.

— Liberal group Unrig Our Economy is launching a $300,000 ad buy attacking GOP incumbents in New Jersey’s 7th District and Iowa’s 1st District for supporting Medicaid cuts. The ad targeting Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.) features a mother who relies on Medicaid funding to raise her child with Down syndrome.

Another spot goes after Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) and features a constituent who says her and her husband couldn’t work at all without access to Medicaid.

— Jake Sherman, Laura Weiss, Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen

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