Dems, GOP dig in as shutdown nears

IN THIS EDITION

Republicans and Democrats dig in as shutdown looms

Hunt moves closer to Texas Senate bid

Tech: China hawks hold their breath over TikTok deal

D.C. officials on deck at Oversight

THE TOP

Republicans and Democrats dig in as shutdown looms

Happy Thursday morning.

✈️Power. People. Politics: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will be our guest on Fly Out Day. We’ll talk to Schumer about government funding, obviously, and much more. Schumer is the third leader we’ve had on our show in three weeks. Subscribe to our YouTube channel so you don’t miss anything.

Government funding update. The battle over government funding has turned into this: Each side claims they’re being completely reasonable while blaming their opponents for the looming showdown.

Yet with less than two weeks to go before the funding deadline, Republican and Democratic leaders are growing further apart rather than closer. Both sides seem content to stand pat, even if that leads to a government shutdown on Oct. 1 and a broader political crisis.

Let’s be clear: A shutdown with President Donald Trump in the White House and Republicans in charge of Congress could spiral into a prolonged political stalemate. Democrats are dug in on health care-related demands, and they won’t move unless Republicans negotiate. The Republican leadership is telling its rank-and-file that they won’t negotiate on a seven-week CR. Any deal will be that much harder to reach once a shutdown takes hold.

House and Senate Democrats introduced a month-long funding proposal Wednesday night that would keep the federal government open until Oct. 31. The Republican plan extends funding until Nov. 21.

Democrats are calling for the permanent extension of enhanced Obamacare premium tax credits, in addition to the reversal of huge Medicaid cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill. Democrats also want to bar any future rescissions and restore public-broadcasting funding.

The price tag for these provisions is hundreds of billions of dollars, a massive amount on a short-term stopgap funding bill. And nearly every provision in this package is a non-starter for Republicans.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune compared Democrats’ position to “hostage-taking” — an oft-stated Schumer line from past shutdown fights.

Schumer countered that Democrats were open to bargaining, if only Republicans would call them.

“We’ll sit down and negotiate if they will sit down and negotiate,” Schumer told reporters on Wednesday night. “We don’t have a red line, but we know we have to help the American people. We know our bill does. We know the American people will reject the status quo embodied in the Republican bill.”

Schumer added: “We have two weeks. We should sit down and maybe we could get a good proposal. We’ll see.”

The veteran Senate Democratic leader faces serious doubts from his House Democratic counterparts over whether he’ll fold in this situation. House Democrats look back to Schumer cutting a deal with Republicans in March and worry it could happen again.

To be clear, Republicans simply have no interest in negotiating. They feel like Democrats felt in the past: Negotiating under these circumstances is validating the Democrats’ position. Republicans are comfortable saying that they’ve proposed a clean CR, which is what Democrats usually ask for, to buy time for bipartisan full-year FY2026 funding talks.

When we caught up with Speaker Mike Johnson Wednesday, we asked him about what would happen if the Democrats wanted to negotiate after the government shut down.

“’I’m going to present, again, a clean, short-term CR,” Johnson said. “That is the only way out of this.”

House Floor Friday. The House Republican leadership will most likely put their seven-week, stopgap government funding bill on the floor Friday morning.

Will it pass? Probably. Because Trump wants it to. House Republicans mostly do what Trump wants. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) is still a no. So Johnson can probably spare one more vote. Forgive us if we aren’t giving enough credit to the few rank-and-file Republicans who are saying they’ll vote no. They always fold under Trump pressure.

Several House Republican leadership sources told us late Wednesday that the vote count is moving in the right direction. But Friday is a long way off. Members of the House Freedom Caucus and other GOP lawmakers wanted Johnson to stick to his 72-hour rule for this bill, so Johnson is.

To be frank, it makes sense for Johnson to hold out until Friday. It’s very annoying, of course, and it slows the Senate down. But why give any of his members a reason to vote no? In a position like this, he’s trying to eliminate GOP defections.

Checking in on Senate Democrats. Senate Democratic leaders are vowing to oppose the House bill. But what about the 10 Democratic senators who paved the way for the March CR?

Schumer needs his caucus to stick together in order to bring Republicans to the negotiating table. All indications are that Schumer will be able to filibuster any GOP CR.

“If they don’t want our help, then they’re not going to get our help,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), who voted for the March CR.

But some of the Democratic senators who backed the March bill are leaving the door ever-so-slightly open to backing the seven-week stopgap, especially if it’s the only hope for averting a shutdown.

“I think we have to see what happens,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said. “I would hope that [GOP] leadership would talk to Democrats.”

“I’ll consider all options, but they ought to do the tax rate,” added Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), referencing Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits.

If anything, the equivocations reflect a desire to avert a shutdown at all costs. But beyond Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), we don’t expect any Democrats to cross Schumer and back the GOP CR.

“I don’t know how many votes will be there to keep the government open on my side, other than just mine, honestly,” Fetterman said.

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Max Cohen

Today at 8:30 a.m. ET: Join us for a conversation with House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.). We’re discussing news of the day, small business and artificial intelligence. RSVP here!

TEXAS SENATE

Hunt moves closer to Texas Senate bid

Texas’ already messy Senate Republican primary could soon be a three-way contest.

Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) is inching closer to launching a bid after months of trying to boost his profile with statewide ads, according to sources familiar with his plans. Hunt would join Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the March GOP primary.

A pro-Hunt group has new polling that shows Hunt five points behind Cornyn in a three-way ballot. Hunt is up by one point in a head-to-head with Paxton, according to this survey.

Of course, this is an internal poll by an outside group supporting Hunt. But it’s notable because Hunt is certainly considering this data as he decides whether to enter the race.

And these numbers bolster Hunt allies’ theory of the case: Hunt is closing in on second-place in the three-way match up. They believe he can overtake Cornyn by next March with more spending.

Doing so would set up a runoff between Hunt and Paxton, and Hunt’s polling indicates he could beat Paxton in a two-way race. Hunt’s timeline for getting into the race is unclear but Texas’ December filing deadline is fast approaching.

The numbers. In their internal poll of the three-way race, Paxton led with 38%, followed by Cornyn with 28% and Hunt with 23%. The survey of 842 GOP primary voters was conducted Sept. 14-16 by Stratus Intelligence.

In a head-to-head, Hunt led Paxton, 39% to 38%. In a Cornyn-Hunt matchup, Hunt led 46% to 37%.

Hunt’s supporters see the two-term House member and former Army officer as the solution to a thorny problem for the GOP. Senate Republicans are in the middle of a multi-million dollar rescue mission to boost Cornyn’s polling numbers. Cornyn is trailing Paxton in most polls but has closed the gap some in recent weeks.

The stakes are high. Many Republicans fear Cornyn can’t win a primary and that Paxton, who’s in the middle of a messy divorce and saddled with ethics issues, would put the seat in play for Democrats in a general election.

Two outside groups have spent some $18 million boosting Cornyn’s numbers, per AdImpact. Hunt and his allied group, Standing For Texas, have spent close to $6 million.

A brewing battle. The NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund, a group with close ties to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have publicly opposed Hunt’s flirtation with the race.

The Senate GOP campaign arm released a memo this month slamming Hunt’s statewide spending as a “vanity project.” The memo urged donors to stop giving to Hunt and listed recent polling showing that Cornyn has narrowed the gap with Paxton to single digits.

The White House remains a major question. President Donald Trump has not endorsed either candidate and seems content to let the race play out.

Cornyn has said he will not bow out of the race.

— Ally Mutnick, Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan and Andrew Desiderio

Tech: China hawks hold their breath over TikTok deal

Hill Republicans who pushed hard to enact the TikTok ban last year have their fingers crossed that President Donald Trump is going to deliver a deal this week that complies with the law.

Trump has been flouting the statute since taking office. The president has issued a series of legally dubious executive actions delaying its enforcement starting in January while he tries to find American buyers for the Chinese-owned app. Most Republican China hawks have held their tongue rather than tangle publicly with Trump, but the non-compliance with the law has been embarrassing for them nonetheless.

Now, Trump says he has the framework of a deal in place that he plans to announce after having a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday.

“My hope is that the phone call with the president and Xi Jinping on Friday yields a positive result where we have American control that gets the Chinese Communist Party out of the algorithm,” said House China Committee Chair John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), a leading TikTok critic.

Moolenaar told us that before Trump said the outlines of a deal were in place, the White House gave him a heads-up that the president would be announcing “a major agreement in terms of a framework.” Moolenaar said he was still awaiting more details.

Algo anxiety. Of particular concern to Moolenaar and other GOP China hawks is the possibility that Chinese firms would have ongoing influence over the app’s algorithm. The system organizes content for viewers, but lawmakers worry it’s prioritizing Beijing’s interests and amounts to a propaganda tool.

“Any connection to the CCP is a non-starter,” said Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.), another member of the China panel.

LaHood said he and his colleagues had “been very clear” about these red lines — and the requirements of the TikTok law — in conversations with the administration.

Faced with a White House that has ignored the law for almost a full year, Republican lawmakers are once again signalling impatience, if not a sense of urgency, to pressure Trump.

“It’s been a long time, and I’ve not been a fan of not enforcing the law,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said.

Hawley said he’s not sure if the Xi call will produce results but is hoping the deal will mean “a complete separation from Beijing and the Chinese holding company.”

— Ben Brody

OVERSIGHT

D.C. officials on deck at Oversight

House Republicans are bringing in D.C.’s top officials today for what’s sure to be a blockbuster hearing about President Donald Trump’s efforts to clean up crime in the District.

Republicans are eager to tout Trump’s move to send National Guard troops into D.C. and take over the police department, calling for a crackdown on crime. Trump suggested this month he could “federalize” D.C. and go beyond control of local police.

That’s the climate D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, Council Chair Phil Mendelson and Attorney General Brian Schwalb, all Democrats, will have to contend with at the House Oversight Committee this morning.

“Key takeaway — what President Trump’s done, it’s been very successful,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), the House Judiciary Committee chair, said.

Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) plans to hail Trump’s D.C. security campaign in his opening remarks.

“This body must ensure that the progress made by the President’s recent actions endures,” Comer will say.

Still, D.C. officials will find some sympathy on the GOP side.

“They have a history of not doing what’s right, and I feel like maybe [Bowser’s] trying to,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said. “She’s in the deep end, and we’ve got to throw her a lifeline.”

D.C.’s delegate. The hearing will be a major test for Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C.). The 88-year-old is the No. 2 Democrat on Oversight.

But Norton hasn’t been a major factor amid the political fight around the District. Norton was largely quiet as other members sparred over D.C.-focused bills in Oversight last week, per the New York Times. And even Norton’s closest allies are now publicly calling on her to retire next year amid questions about her ability to do the job.

There will be a lot of attention on how Norton navigates the spotlight today. A spokesperson declined to provide a comment.

— Laura Weiss

THE CAMPAIGN

News: James Leuschen, a former top staffer to Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), is launching a run for retiring Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Neb.) seat.

Leuschen is an Omaha native and economic policy expert. He worked for Hoyer when the Maryland Democrat was House majority leader.

Hoyer endorsed Leuschen, as did John Ashford, the son of the late Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.). Brad Ashford held the seat before Bacon.

Nebraska’s 2nd District is a top pickup opportunity for Democrats.

– Ally Mutnick

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