Congress is nowhere on funding the government

IN THIS EDITION

Both sides dig in as shutdown looms

The California redistricting ad wars have begun

DCCC crushes NRCC in August fundraising

In Helsinki, Gallego tries to reassure skittish U.S. allies

THE TOP

Both sides dig in as shutdown looms

Happy Monday morning.

The House and Senate are on recess all week. Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, begins this evening at sundown and ends on Wednesday at sundown.

The government funding deadline is in eight days.

When we left you last week, the House had just passed a GOP-drafted “clean” bill to extend government funding until Nov. 21. Only one Democrat voted yes. Speaker Mike Johnson then recessed the House until at least Oct. 1, meaning no votes until after a shutdown starts. More about this in a moment.

Senate Democrats followed by blocking passage of the House GOP bill, with only one Democrat crossing the aisle to back the measure. Senate Republicans countered by turning away a Democratic alternative that would’ve kept the government open until Oct. 31.

We’ll be blunt here: Congress is absolutely nowhere in funding the government.

Yes, it’s true that House Republicans are the only ones who have passed a bill. And that talking point was a good one on Friday for about three hours. It’s now Monday and the government will shut down next week.

The political dynamics could shift appreciably in the run-up to that deadline. It’ll be an unpredictable week.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have spent the past few days publicly pressing President Donald Trump to hold a meeting. Trump said he would “love to meet with them.” Nothing is scheduled as of yet.

Keep in mind that Trump right now seems to be focused on exacting revenge on his political enemies. Trump unfurled a string of criticisms against Attorney General Pam Bondi Saturday night because she hasn’t filed criminal charges against former FBI Director James Comey, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and New York Attorney General Letitia James. Trump later praised Bondi, but the message was clear.

Should they meet, we’re not sure what Trump’s mood will be toward Schumer and Jeffries. But the Democrats’ chief ask — an extension of enhanced premium subsidies for Obamacare — is something many Hill Republicans want as well. So there’s a risk for Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune in having Trump at the negotiating table with Schumer and Jeffries.

Trump may want to wait to see if Schumer and Jeffries feel more pressure as Sept. 30 gets closer or federal agencies actually close down.

Another pathway out of this stalemate is to try to enact a stopgap funding bill into 2026 instead and attach the enhanced Obamacare tax credits onto that. This seems unlikely, although figures in both parties have floated it to us.

Johnson and the House GOP leadership appear to be comfortable with having the House out of session next Monday and Tuesday as the government shuts down.

This ranks high on the list of all the questionable moves we’ve seen in recent years.

The week ahead. Dozens of House Democrats are going to be in D.C. this week, including Jeffries and other leaders. The Congressional Black Caucus Foundation’s Annual Legislative Conference begins Wednesday and runs through the weekend.

The Senate, which rejected both the GOP CR and a Democratic counter-proposal on Friday, will be back in session on Sept. 29.

Thune is expected to force a vote on the House bill again next Monday evening as he looks to squeeze Democrats. The Senate is set to hold another procedural vote on the bill, but even if there are 60 senators backing the measure — which is extremely unlikely — a vote on final passage couldn’t occur before the shutdown deadline without unanimous consent.

Meanwhile, several lawmakers from both parties will be in New York during the first half of the week for the United Nations General Assembly. Trump himself is attending the annual gathering beginning this evening.

The politics. Schumer and Jeffries’ position is hard to explain to the American public, and Trump has the bully pulpit — if he can stay on message.

In addition to the Obamacare subsidies extension, Democrats are demanding that Trump and GOP Republican leaders roll back the massive Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. They also want the White House to forgo any more rescission packages and restore hundreds of millions of dollars in public broadcast financing. Most of these asks are non-starters.

Democrats have also taken to calling the GOP CR proposal a “dirty bill,” as opposed to a “clean CR.” Yet that’s a Washington insider game that will have a tough time breaking through. And Republicans are hitting the “Schumer shutdown” angle hard.

But rank-and-file Democrats say that by focusing on affordability — a pressing political issue — they can win the messaging war.

“Our super secret plan is just to tell the truth,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said. “If the American people know what’s going on, then the Republicans will have to roll back those health care cuts, and that will keep the government open.”

“People want us to help them with the affordability of health care,” Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said. “That’s what we need to do.”

— Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

REDISTRICTING WARS

The California redistricting ad wars have begun

More than $35 million has been spent so far on TV and digital advertising in California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting fight — with much more to come.

And $20.5 million of that spending has been in favor of the ballot initiative, known as California Proposition 50, which would allow the Golden State’s legislature to redraw the congressional map in a way that could net Democrats five House districts.

Meanwhile, the campaign against the ballot initiative has spent $14.8 million, per AdImpact. That leaves a pretty big edge for supporters of the ballot measure.

California voters will decide Nov. 4 whether or not to pause their independent redistricting commission for the rest of the decade. This vote could very well determine who controls the House in 2027. Texas Republicans have already passed a new map that could give them five more seats.

This is just a fraction of what both parties plan to spend on TV for the California initiative, although the messaging war will be key.

The Democratic message. Newsom’s group is attempting to nationalize the race and turn it into a referendum on President Donald Trump. Their ads make an appeal to voters to “stop Trump, restore checks and balances” and push back on his “election rigging.”

One spot even notes that former President Barack Obama endorsed Prop 50. Another Spanish-language ad features Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.). Newsom is, of course, also featured heavily in ads.

Here’s one pro-Prop 50 ad:

The Republican message. These ads tout California’s independent redistricting commission as a paragon of good government and a guardrail to keep politicians from choosing their voters.

The spots try to keep the focus local. California voters approved the independent commission via ballot initiative in 2010. And it is largely popular.

Opponents of Prop 50 want to remind voters of that and promote the “thousands of hours” the commission puts in to determine fair districts.

Here’s an example of an anti-Prop 50 ad:

This is just the start. Tens of millions of advertising dollars will flood California’s airwaves before Nov. 4.

– Ally Mutnick

CASH DASH

DCCC crushes NRCC in August fundraising

The NRCC raised less than $4 million in August — a little more than half of what the DCCC brought in.

House Democrats’ campaign arm raised $7.1 million in what was their lowest month of 2025 so far. The committee ended the month with $41.1 million in the bank.

The NRCC ended August with $36.4 million in cash on hand, slightly less than it had banked at the end of July.

August is typically a hard fundraising month. Congress is often in recess and members and donors are on vacation.

But this is a pretty sizable discrepancy, especially after Republicans pushed through their biggest legislative achievement of the year, passing the One Big Beautiful Bill. The NRCC’s next lowest month of 2025 was January, and even then, they raised $5.9 million.

The Senate. The DSCC also outraised its Republican counterpart, bringing in $5.6 million in August. The NRSC raised $4.7 million.

Senate Democrats have nearly $4 million more in cash on hand than the NRSC, with $12.2 million. But the DSCC has $500,000 in unretired campaign debt and the NRSC has none.

National Committees. The DNC raised $11 million in August, nearly keeping fundraising pace with the RNC’s $11.1 million.

But the cash-on-hand disparity here is still jarring. The RNC has $83.9 million to the DNC’s $14.9 million.

– Ally Mutnick

CODEL WATCH

In Helsinki, Gallego tries to reassure skittish U.S. allies

During an appearance at the Helsinki Security Forum this weekend, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) criticized President Donald Trump’s policy toward Russia as enabling more aggression from President Vladimir Putin.

Gallego said the Trump administration is sending the wrong message by slashing Baltic security funding and failing to strongly rebuke recent Russian incursions in NATO airspace.

“Putin is testing not just us, and it’s just a series of escalations, whether it’s the drones over Poland or the flyover in Estonia,” Gallego said. “It’s push, push, push, and we don’t respond. It only encourages more and more negative action from Russia.”

The Arizona Democrat attempted to reassure attendees at the security conference that the United States is not abandoning its European partners, despite signals from the White House.

“This president is going to be gone in three years,” Gallego said. “The relationships and institutions that have really welded us together for so many years need to continue.”

Sanctions stalled. Gallego also accused Trump of holding up the adoption of the Russia sanctions bill sponsored by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.).

“A real message that this administration can send to Putin is to send that bill to the floor, pass it and start seeing the consequences of their actions,” Gallego said.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune hinted at floor action for the package earlier this summer. But the bill still hasn’t received a vote as Thune defers to the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, some GOP senators are losing patience with the White House and want Thune to put the sanctions bill on the floor regardless of any signals from the executive.

Talking Trump. Gallego also met with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who has emerged as a key mediator between Trump and other European allies. Per Stubb’s office, the two discussed the war in Ukraine and the importance of a “strong transatlantic alliance.”

Gallego hailed Stubb’s “very trusting relationship” with Trump, crediting the Finnish leader for adding “a very good perspective of being on the front lines of dealing with Russia.”

“He’s a really good golfer and that matters in this White House,” Gallego said.

Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) was scheduled to visit Finland with Gallego, but he had to cancel after the death of his brother last week. Banks and Gallego have become something of an unlikely bipartisan duo on foreign policy matters.

— Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

News: Plymouth Union Public Advocacy is launching a $300,000 ad buy in Washington, D.C. that courts President Donald Trump’s support for the enhanced Obamacare subsidies expiring at year’s end. The issue is one of Democrats’ core demands in the shutdown fight. But Republicans have been waiting for direction from the White House.

The conservative group praises Trump’s health care efforts in the ad but warns “health care costs will double” unless the enhanced premium tax credits are extended.

“President Trump knows it. Thune and Johnson know it too,” a narrator says in the spot. “It’s now or never. Mr. President, keep making history. Keep fighting for us.”

Virginia gov. Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who is running for governor, has a new ad running in the D.C. market featuring former Virginia GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock and Denver Riggleman.

Watch the ad here.

— Laura Weiss

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