Crunch time: Can Congress avert a shutdown?

IN THIS EDITION

Is there any chance Congress can avoid a shutdown?

Gardner taking over the NCTA, stepping back at SLF

Dems go after Collins on stock trading

Health care groups press House GOP over NIH funding

THE TOP

Is there any chance Congress can avoid a shutdown?

Happy Tuesday morning.

Welcome back to Washington, everyone. And to members and senators returning to the Hill this week, we can’t wait to see you! We’re sure you feel the same way about us. Punchbowl News is back to our regular three-editions-per-day schedule.

September ushers in a critical period for President Donald Trump and the Big Four congressional leaders — Speaker Mike Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

There are a bunch of big issues at play in the coming weeks, including government funding, Trump’s “crime emergency” and immigration crackdowns, tariffs and trade wars, the state of the U.S. economy, the future of the Federal Reserve, Jeffrey Epstein, Gaza and Ukraine. We’re going to focus this morning on the looming government-funding crisis.

In 28 days, funding for federal agencies expires. Both chambers are out the week of Sept. 22 for Rosh Hashanah. That leaves just 14 legislative days for Congress and the White House to avert a shutdown.

Right now, a potential government shutdown seems more likely than not. And if there isn’t a shutdown, federal agencies could limp along on a series of short-term funding bills — continuing resolutions — throughout this year and next, giving Trump and White House officials even more sway over federal spending.

A CR will be needed to avoid an Oct. 1 shutdown because there’s no way Congress will pass 12 spending bills by then. How long does this initial CR last? Mid-November? Mid-December? Will there be a “hybrid” CR — some full-year bills plus a CR for everything else? What about a year-long CR?

A year-long CR would be devastating for the House and Senate Appropriations panels. Yet Trump can live with a CR at current funding levels. Remember, the White House got new defense, border security and veterans’ money in the One Big Beautiful Bill. The White House is already saying it wants a clean CR while Congress tries to reach a broader deal.

The House and Senate are writing their FY2026 spending bills at two very different funding levels. In fact, House GOP leaders are more in line with Trump’s proposed cuts to social programs, while Senate Republicans are seeking bipartisan funding deals with Democrats.

Meanwhile, the White House announced it was unilaterally rescinding nearly $5 billion in foreign aid last week via a “pocket rescission,” a move that even Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) called “unlawful.” Yet it appears that Republicans are doing nothing to stop it, and Democrats can’t. This is on top of the nearly $9 billion rescissions package Republicans passed in July.

The Labor-HHS subcommittee of the House Appropriations panel will hold a markup today on the FY2026 proposal from GOP appropriators. The draft, released Monday night, calls for huge cuts to the HHS, Labor, and Education departments. Democrats are already blasting the measure.

The Schumer question. For Schumer and Senate Democrats in particular, the issue now becomes whether they’re willing to force a government shutdown and what their demands will be. In order to avoid a March-like debacle, Schumer and Jeffries will need to agree on an actual strategy. This was their problem back in March.

In a Dear Colleague letter out this morning, Schumer said he and Jeffries “are aligned on our shared priorities for September.” Schumer argued that Democrats’ cooperation on bipartisan appropriations bills before Congress left for the August recess shows they want to keep the government open, adding that Republicans should reject Trump’s trampling of Congress’ Article I powers to avert a shutdown.

Senate Democrats also spent August laying the groundwork to make the funding fight all about health care, holding more than 275 events in August to hammer this message.

Yet fault lines are already emerging that will put pressure on Schumer. Progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) say Democrats shouldn’t help Republicans fund the government unless they reverse the Medicaid cuts from the reconciliation bill. That’s not going to happen.

There’s some cautious optimism about another health care-related demand, however. Obamacare premium tax credits are expiring soon. Democrats’ theory is that Republicans would be willing to negotiate an extension because they wouldn’t want to see rising health care costs right before the midterms.

Senate rules changes. It’s about to get a lot easier for the Senate to confirm Trump’s nominees — and those of future presidents, for that matter.

Senate Republicans are on track to trigger the so-called “nuclear option” as they look to beat back a historic campaign by Senate Democrats to slow-walk Trump’s nominees.

Several options are under consideration but there’s particular interest in a proposal that would allow senators to vote on up to 10 nominations simultaneously if they were approved by the same committee.

Based on a 2023 Democratic effort, this “en bloc” confirmation proposal would dramatically speed up the process and help clear the backlog of more than 140 presidential picks awaiting floor action.

Republicans could get creative, too, by allowing more than 10 nominations or dropping the requirement that all come from the same committee.

We also expect Senate Republicans to continue dangling the prospect of recess appointments as a way to pressure Democrats on nominations. Yet even some Senate Republicans are uneasy about this option.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Next week, we’re interviewing Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) about access to health care and patient access to care in rural communities on Tuesday, Sept. 9. RSVP here! Later this month, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) will join Punchbowl News on Thursday, Sept. 18, to discuss news of the day, small business and artificial intelligence. RSVP here!

THE SENATE

Gardner taking over the NCTA, stepping back at SLF

News: Former Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) will be stepping down as chair of the board of the Senate Leadership Fund to serve as president and CEO of the NCTA.

The NCTA, formerly known as the National Cable and Telecommunications Association, represents cable and telecom giants such as Comcast NBCUniversal, Disney, Fox, Paramount and Sony. NCTA’s board includes Fox News Media CEO Suzanne Scott and ESPN Chair Jimmy Pitaro.

At NCTA, Gardner will succeed Michael Powell, the former chair of the Federal Communications Commission, who has served as the association’s president and CEO for 15 years. Powell announced his retirement in February. Powell earned $7.1 million in the role in 2023, according to the NCTA’s tax filings. In other words, this is a gigantic job for Gardner.

Gardner, 51, first came to Congress in the huge House Republican class of 2010. He ran for Senate in 2014, beating Democrat Mark Udall. Gardner served just one term before losing to Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.).

Gardner, the NRSC chairman during the 2018 cycle, was brought onto SLF in December to help ease the transition from departing Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell to his successor, John Thune. Gardner took an active role in fundraising and has strong relationships with many of the senators up for reelection in 2026.

Looking ahead at SLF. SLF said Gardner will remain on the super PAC’s board even as he takes up his new position. Gardner won’t be the SLF chair, though.

Gardner told us that his role at SLF wasn’t meant to be permanent, and while he had hoped to stay longer, he couldn’t pass up the opportunity at the NCTA.

Under McConnell, Steven Law, a longtime GOP operative, ran SLF. Law left when McConnell stepped down as GOP leader. Thune’s operation redesigned the organizational chart, installing Alex Latcham as executive director along with Gardner as the board chair.

A Republican senator granted anonymity to candidly assess Gardner’s departure told us there were concerns that McConnell’s exit from GOP leadership would “negatively impact” the fundraising juggernaut the Kentucky Republican meticulously built over a nearly two-decade span.

“It was important to have someone high up at SLF who is close to both Mitch and John during the transition period to ensure that this model would be able to sustain itself after his departure,” the GOP senator added. “Cory accomplished that goal for us.”

— Ally Mutnick, Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

MAINE SENATE WATCH

Dems go after Collins on stock trading

First in Punchbowl News: The top Senate Democratic super PAC is launching a $700,000 digital ad blitz slamming Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) for opposing efforts to restrict congressional stock trading.

Majority Forward, a Senate Majority PAC affiliate, is airing two new ads in the Pine Tree State that accuse Collins of enriching herself while in office.

In one 30-second spot, the ad’s narrator accuses Collins of “the worst kind of greed… using insider information to trade stocks.”

“She’s opposing a bipartisan bill that would ban members of Congress from trading stocks. Our representatives should be serving the people of Maine, not lining their own pockets,” the ad continues.

There’s a corresponding 15-second ad that starts with a montage of pictures of Collins dressed in formal wear at receptions.

“After 28 years living this life in Washington, you can lose touch with Maine. Susan Collins is trying to keep it so members of Congress can get rich on insider trading,” the narrator says.

Collins’ team told the Bangor Daily News last month that the Maine Republican doesn’t support Sen. Josh Hawley’s (R-Mo.) plan to restrict lawmakers from trading stocks, citing existing law that bans insider trading.

The backstory. Democrats are trying to slam Collins for her husband’s stock portfolio. Collins insists she has no knowledge of her husband’s stocks. Collins’ office has said a third-party adviser controls her husband’s investment decisions, and neither Collins nor her husband trade stocks themselves.

The digital ads are running on streaming services and YouTube.

The Democratic messaging here diverges slightly from the playbook used against Republicans in other states. The stock trading issue is a dynamic that polls very well among Democrats and Republicans, but isn’t often used in campaign ads.

There’s also a third ad in the buy, a 15-second spot that bashes Collins for voting “to give tax breaks to billionaires.”

Even as SMP tries to negatively define Collins early in the race, there’s no clear Democratic favorite to face the incumbent next fall. National Democrats continue to wait for Gov. Janet Mills to make a decision, while political newcomers Jordan Wood and Graham Platner have jumped into the race.

Platner — an oysterman who rallied with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Monday — is taking the primary field by storm in the first weeks of his campaign.

— Max Cohen

APPROPS WATCH

Health care groups press House GOP over NIH funding

A coalition of nearly four dozen top health care advocacy groups is urging House Republicans to oppose any cuts to NIH funding, even as the Trump administration withholds hundreds of millions of dollars in research grants for the agency.

House Republicans released their FY2026 Labor-HHS spending proposal Monday night ahead of a scheduled subcommittee markup in the House Appropriations Committee today. It calls for a small overall cut to NIH spending, roughly $465 million below last year’s level. That’s less than a 1% reduction in NIH’s nearly $48 billion budget.

Most of the proposed GOP cuts for NIH would come at ARPA-H (the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health), which is charged with exploring “long-shot cures” for diseases. The House Republicans’ plan would slash the ARPA-H budget by $555 million, nearly one-third. The agency was created under former President Joe Biden in 2022.

House Democrats hammered the GOP proposal, calling it part of a broader Republican attack on medical research.

“Republicans are proposing cutting funding for the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee. “This bill is an attack on the programs and services that Americans depend on at every stage of their life.”

United for Cures, a coalition of advocacy groups, is calling on House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.), cardinal for the Labor-HHS subcommittee, to reject any NIH research cuts.

“Continued public investment in research for cures is critical to advancing prevention, early detection, developing innovative treatments, and finding life-saving cures. We know that more than 2/3 of all Americans oppose reductions to medical research funding, and we urge you to hold strong against cuts,” the groups said in a letter obtained by Punchbowl News.

United for Cures is made up of a number of top advocacy groups, including the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network, American Heart Association, American Lung Association, Diabetes Leadership Council, Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research, National Health Council and more.

We expect a full House Appropriations Committee markup of the Labor-HHS bill as early as Thursday.

– John Bresnahan

THE CAMPAIGN

The American Petroleum Institute is launching a seven-figure ad campaign on D.C.-area cable, digital, podcasts and billboards pushing Congress to overhaul permitting rules. This has been a long-running fight in Washington, which the ad alludes to by showing every president since Jimmy Carter talking about easing our dependence on foreign oil.

Keep Americans Covered, a group pushing for an extension of the Obamacare premium tax credits, is running a new ad in D.C. and a dozen states. The group wants an extension of the tax credits in the government funding bill. Keep Americans Covered’s members include AARP, AHIP, BlueCross BlueShield, NAACP and Philips, among many others.

The battle is on for President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the South Carolina gubernatorial race. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette is out with a new digital ad blasting Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) for her past anti-Trump comments.

The spot, part of a multimillion-dollar ad buy that began over the weekend, uses footage of Trump dissing Mace at rallies.

– Jake Sherman and Ally Mutnick

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