GOP leaders need to show funding progress this week

IN THIS EDITION

22 days until the shutdown deadline. Republicans need a plan

Virginia special election Tuesday shrinks GOP margins

Wittman gets a new challenger in Va. Plus, Obama alums’ Mich. fundraiser

What we’re watching

THE TOP

22 days until the shutdown deadline. Republicans need a plan

Happy Monday morning.

News: Senate Majority Leader John Thune will take the first procedural steps this afternoon on a GOP effort to steamroll Democrats’ historic slow-walking of President Donald Trump’s nominees.

Senate Republicans plan on triggering the so-called “nuclear option” to unilaterally change the chamber’s rules to allow for “en bloc” confirmation of non-Cabinet executive branch nominees, dramatically speeding up the process.

There won’t be a limit to the number of executive nominees that can be grouped together in any one package. But the new rules won’t apply to judicial nominees.

FY2026 funding outlook. It’s now 22 days until the federal government runs out of money. And it’s very clear that the Republican leaders on the Hill and the Trump White House are still strategizing about how to keep the agencies open beyond Sept. 30.

Hill Republicans wasted last week taking no action on putting together a plan to avoid a shutdown. The House is focusing on the annual defense authorization bill this week, while the Senate is changing its rules and turning back to the NDAA. Only a few appropriations bills have actually reached the floor in either chamber.

Congress is in session this week and next, but then lawmakers depart for a week for Rosh Hashanah. And then its shutdown week, with Sept. 30 falling on a Tuesday. So 22 days isn’t as long as it sounds.

Republican Hill leaders are considering two options: enact a short-term spending bill until November or December, which is the preference of congressional appropriators; or pass a funding bill into early 2026, which seems to be the White House’s favored move.

Then there’s the question of what Democrats will demand in exchange for their support. In OMB Director Russ Vought’s fever dream, Democrats can be ignored. But you need 60 votes in the Senate to pass anything, so Democrats are going to want to see engagement from Republicans.

What Democrats can get. Democrats have plenty of issues heading into this fight. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer weren’t only on different pages during the last government funding fight, they were on different planets. Schumer got hammered for bailing Republicans out in March. He can’t do that this time while getting nothing in return.

Republicans are beginning to come to grips with the fact that they have to consider extending Obamacare premium tax credits. Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged the political reality during an appearance on Fly Out Day last week. House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) talked about means-testing the tax credits during an appearance on Bloomberg TV Friday.

Allowing a double-digit increase in health care premiums isn’t tenable for a Republican Party that is growing more vulnerable on cost-of-living politics. That said, Johnson will lose a lot of GOP support if he includes the Obamacare tax credit in any funding bill. House Democrats would be needed to pass that package.

A year-long increase, which would cost roughly $28 billion, is a bit risky. That means premiums could jump for millions of Obamacare enrollees right around the midterms. Republicans likely would have to stomach an 18- or 24-month extension and perhaps attempt to impose income limits on the tax credit.

What Republicans don’t seem to fully grasp is that they can’t simply give the Democrats nothing. Senate Democrats aren’t going to support a CR because Republicans say it’s the right thing to do. As we noted, Schumer tried that play before, and it didn’t work out. So this week, we’re going to be watching what Democrats say they need and what Republicans seem willing to accept.

It will be critical for all involved to have the White House — especially Trump — a bit more engaged.

The short-term option. House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) want to pass a short-term CR into November or December.

In theory, this would give appropriators more time to reach a larger spending deal. But if we know anything about congressional negotiations, it’s that they take longer than expected. Plus, any spending deal is really up to Trump and the “Big 4” leaders at this point, not appropriators.

The upside to this is that a two-to-three-month leash keeps Congress focused on getting a deal. That inevitably advantages the Senate. The House and Senate are miles apart on their topline numbers. Any extended negotiation will lay bare the reality that a Senate product that spends more money for FY2026 is what can get 60 votes.

The longer-term option. If you’re looking from the White House and the GOP leadership’s perspective, a longer-term stopgap would seem to be the better option.

Why? Like we just said, why have several tough votes instead of one? Why not give Congress as much time as possible to come up with a funding deal through Sept. 30, 2026? This is what the White House wants, but Trump isn’t completely dialed in yet. And we can’t imagine Democrats would be thrilled with the idea.

What conservatives really want. How about a year-long CR? That’s what conservatives want. We’ll also note that the government is being funded on a long-term CR right now.

Of course, Collins, Cole and other appropriators want earmarks, and that doesn’t happen with a year-long CR. Meaning they will want to keep talking, whether it’s now or into next year.

— Jake Sherman and Andrew Desiderio

Tomorrow: Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) joins us at 8:30 a.m. ET to discuss access to health care and patient access to care in rural communities. Following this session, we’ll have a fireside chat and expert panel as we delve into the policy, provider, health system and third-party group perspectives. RSVP to save your spot!

MAJORITY MATH

Virginia special election Tuesday shrinks GOP margins

Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw, a Democrat, is expected to sail through Tuesday’s special election to fill the late Rep. Gerry Connolly’s (D-Va.) seat, complicating Speaker Mike Johnson’s majority math.

Normally, special elections in safe seats aren’t super interesting. But in such a narrowly divided House, every vacancy can have a huge impact.

Right now, that House has 431 members. With 219 House Republicans to 212 Democrats, Johnson can only lose three members of his conference on any given vote — or win over moderate Democrats (Remember: a tie means the vote fails).

If Walkinshaw wins and is sworn in, Johnson’s margin gets even tighter. There will be 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats. That means Johnson could then only lose two members on any vote.

And it could get worse from there for Johnson, at least for a little while.

There are currently four vacancies in the House due to the deaths of Connolly and Democratic Reps. Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.) and Sylvester Turner (Texas), plus the resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Green (Tenn.).

The special election for Grijalva’s seat is set for Sept. 23, but that won’t change the majority math if a Democrat holds on to the district as expected.

But Turner’s special, set for Nov. 4 in Houston, will drop Johnson to a mere one-vote margin, assuming a Democrat wins. This is a D+21 district. Turner won the Houston-based district by nearly 40 points in November. So it’s all but certain to remain in Democratic hands. There will be a runoff if no one clears 50%, which would buy Johnson a little more time.

Short-lived squeeze: The special election to fill Green’s seat will be held on Dec. 2. This is a district President Donald Trump won by 22 points in 2024, so Republicans are heavily favored. But Democrats are contesting the seat, hoping for an upset.

A Republican victory here brings the number of GOP votes Johnson can lose back up to two. Better than one, but it’s still less than he has now.

– Ally Mutnick

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

Wittman gets a new challenger in Va. Plus, Obama alums’ Mich. fundraiser

Virginia News. Shannon Taylor, the Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney, is launching a challenge today against Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.).

Taylor narrowly lost a Democratic primary bid earlier this year for Virginia attorney general. Taylor is parlaying that momentum into a run against Wittman, who holds a seat that spans from the Richmond suburbs to the Northern Neck and the Historic Triangle.

Democrats see opportunity in Wittman’s 1st District, which President Donald Trump won by five points in 2024. It has a significant chunk of federal workers and contractors, as well as active-duty military and veterans, all of whom are affected by Trump’s DOGE cuts earlier this year.

The Democratic primary in this district is already crowded. But national Democrats are excited about Taylor, who is fresh off a statewide run and performed better than expected against former state Del. Jay Jones, who won the attorney general nomination.

Taylor enters the race with endorsements from Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Virginia Democratic Reps. Don Beyer, Eugene Vindman and Suhas Subramanyam.

Michigan News. A slew of prominent Obama administration veterans are fundraising for former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam in his bid for a Lansing-based battleground district.

Maasdam is looking to challenge freshman GOP Rep. Tom Barrett in the Wolverine State’s 7th District. The Obama alums will hold a fundraiser on Sept. 17 in Dupont Circle for Maasdam.

Among the notable names listed on the invite include: Jay Carney, Ben LaBolt, Stephanie Cutter, Jim Messina, former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), former Obama body man Reggie Love, former White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough, former UN Ambassador Susan Rice, former HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and Alyssa Mastromonaco, a top White House aide under President Barack Obama.

Maasdam was a military aide to Obama and carried the “nuclear football” for the former president. Maasdam also wouldn’t be the first presidential military aide to go to Congress. Former Rep. John Kline (R-Minn.) was a military aide to Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.

Maasdam is locked in a crowded Democratic primary with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink. This district is a top target for Democrats, who lost it in 2024 when then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) left it open to run for Senate.

– Ally Mutnick

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What we’re watching

Monday: The House Rules Committee will set the floor procedures for the NDAA and the Stop Illegal Entry Act.

Tuesday: The House Financial Services Committee will have a hearing on the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network with Director Andrea Gacki. Financial Services will also have a hearing about the health of the banking sector. House Appropriations will mark up the Labor-HHS spending bill.

The House Oversight Committee will have a hearing with HHS and Agriculture officials entitled “Better Meals, Fewer Pills: Making Our Children Healthy Again.”

The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee will hold a hearing entitled “How the corruption of science has impacted public perception and policies regarding vaccines.”

Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee will have a hearing on the corporate proxy process featuring Brad Lander, the comptroller of New York City, among other witnesses. House Appropriations will mark up the Commerce-Justice-Science spending bill.

The House Intelligence Committee will have a closed hearing to mark up the 2026 Intelligence Authorization Act.

The House Oversight Committee will mark up a number of crime bills related to the District of Columbia.

The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing to consider Treasury Department nominations.

The Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on the United States’ “AI action plan,” featuring Michael Kratsios, the director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Thursday: The Senate Armed Services Committee will hold a hearing to examine the nomination of Gen. Christopher J. Mahoney to be vice chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The Senate Appropriations Committee will mark up the Homeland Security spending bill.

The Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on a number of judicial nominees. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a hearing on nominations.

– Jake Sherman

… AND THERE’S MORE

Endorsement watch. Elect Democratic Women is backing Jasmeet Bains in the race for California’s 22nd District. Bains is seeking to knock off GOP Rep. David Valadao (Calif.) in a seat that Democrats have targeted unsuccessfully for multiple cycles in a row.

Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) leads Elect Democratic Women, a member-composed campaign group backing female Democratic candidates.

Downtown Download. The Big West Conference has hired Alignment Government Strategies to lobby on NIL policies.

— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman

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