The Hill is waiting on Trump

IN THIS EDITION

Leaders stake out funding positions as the Hill waits for Trump

The Vault: Tillis backs Miran, despite White House carryover

Talarico’s pitch for change in Texas

Senate GOP to confirm 48 Trump nominees next week

GOP poll: Sununu is competitive with Pappas

THE TOP

Leaders stake out funding positions as the Hill waits for Trump

Happy Tuesday morning.

With just over three weeks to go until a government shutdown, leaders in both parties are still trying to figure out their own positions on FY2026 spending bills.

More importantly, they’re trying to figure out what President Donald Trump wants, and how far he’s willing to go to avoid a shutdown — or whether the White House is looking for a showdown with Democrats.

This is especially true for GOP congressional leaders. Top Republicans recall that Trump oversaw the longest government shutdown in U.S. history back in 2018-19, although that was only a partial stoppage. This time, it would be a full government shutdown. Trump can soften the worst of the fallout by ordering government workers to stay on the job even if they’re not getting paid, although even that has political costs.

Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought have waged a bitter fight all year with Hill Democrats over hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending. This includes a recent “pocket rescission” of nearly $5 billion in foreign aid, which even Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) called “unlawful.” The White House asked the Supreme Court for an emergency order on Monday seeking to overturn a federal judge’s injunction blocking the move.

Another huge issue is health-care cost increases, a growing political and economic problem for Trump and Republicans. Enhanced tax credits for Obamacare enrollees run out at the end of the year, threatening coverage for four million Americans.

So there are some key questions that need to be resolved: Is a bipartisan spending deal possible? What’s the length of any stopgap funding bill that will be needed to avoid an Oct. 1 shutdown? And is Congress going to extend the enhanced Obamacare tax credits?

The government-funding plan. There are basically two options for extending government funding: a short-term stopgap into November or December or a longer-term CR until January or February.

We could argue the strategy either way. It may be better for Speaker Mike Johnson to kick the deadline into 2026 in order to minimize the number of CR votes he has to whip. But we also understand the urgency that a November deadline creates.

The downside is that Congress will likely need another stopgap into December because it’s just not enough time to finish.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Monday any short-term funding bill should be “as clean as possible” or Republicans risk jeopardizing the chances of a longer-term deal.

But the problem here is that many Republicans seem to think Democrats will simply vote for a clean, short-term CR without getting anything. We think that’s way too optimistic.

“How do you say ‘clean CR,’ then Russ Vought gets to pick and choose?” Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) said.

At the same time, Senate Democrats aren’t yet getting specific about what it’ll take to win their votes. Trump also hasn’t even held a bipartisan meeting with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer or House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries yet.

House and Senate appropriations leaders huddled Monday night to discuss their path forward. Collins said all four “are committed to trying to prevent a government shutdown and work on an agreement.”

The appropriators discussed conferencing three Senate-passed FY2026 spending bills — MilCon-VA, Agriculture and Legislative Branch — and passing a short-term CR. But the White House hasn’t signed off on this approach yet.

Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said the meeting was productive but called on Republican leadership to commit to a bipartisan CR.

“We had a productive conversation about conferencing the first three bills and a bipartisan, short-term CR to allow us time to pass full-year bills, which I believe is critical to protect Democratic priorities and programs that families count on every day,” Murray said. “I’ve been in regular touch with Leader Schumer, and now, we need Speaker Johnson and Leader Thune to commit to a bipartisan CR to avert a shutdown and move the ball forward.”

Obamacare subsidies. There’s growing pressure on GOP leaders to accept some sort of extension of the soon-to-expire Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits. Especially if that’s what unlocks Democratic votes for a stopgap funding measure. There’s also implications for 2026.

“The White House needs to be instructed by what it takes to get a CR out of the Senate,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “I’m pretty much on record talking about how disruptive the [OBBB] Medicaid cuts were… The last thing we want to do, for the purposes of Democrats, is have another bad message on health care policy.”

But Thune on Monday seemed to dismiss the notion that Republicans would rubber-stamp an extension of the expanded eligibility requirements that Democrats enacted via the budget reconciliation process in 2021.

“[Democrats] dramatically increased the size of the population, dramatically increased the cost. And they put the expiration date in place,” Thune told us. “So like I said before, the Democrats have a responsibility to come forward with a solution.”

Johnson has acknowledged that Republicans are in a squeeze when it comes to the credits. Yet Johnson also warned that “there’s a lot of opposition to [extending the enhanced credits] as well.”

Since the House Republican leadership and the White House refuse to take a position on whether they are in favor of extending the enhanced tax credits, GOP opponents are beginning to step into the void.

House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) has been actively campaigning against any extension of the boosted Obamacare credits with GOP colleagues. Arrington told us he plans to start circulating information to educate House Republicans on why they shouldn’t extend the subsidies, calling them “fiscally reckless.”

Arrington also argued against any extension of the Covid-era credits privately, criticizing the subsidies to House GOP leaders, committee chairs and other key Republican members during Monday evening’s Elected Leadership Committee meeting.

House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) said “no” when we asked him if he wanted to see the enhanced credits extended.

“Covid is over,” Harris said. “Newsflash to America. Covid is over.”

— John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio, Jake Sherman, Max Cohen, Laura Weiss and Samantha Handler

A bit of Punchbowl News business: We’re thrilled to announce that Briana Reilly has joined our team to cover defense, the next frontier in our expanding focus on the policy arena. She comes to us from CQ Roll Call. This is a key moment for defense policy in Washington and we plan to bring the same fervor, tenacity and relentless pursuit of news to this beat that we do to all our coverage.

TODAY at 8:30 a.m. ET, we’ll delve into health care and patient access to care in rural communities with Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), our fireside chat speaker and an expert panel. You can still join us by submitting your RSVP now!

The Vault: Tillis backs Miran, despite White House carryover

News: Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran appears set to avoid a messy fight on the Senate Banking Committee over his nomination to the Federal Reserve Board.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) told reporters Monday night he planned to support Miran’s nomination when it comes up Wednesday. The North Carolina Republican and Banking panel member had some initial reservations after learning Miran did not intend to resign from the Trump administration if confirmed by the Senate.

“I’ll support it, but with this intent to potentially go back to the [CEA], I don’t think he’d be appropriate for a long-term role,” Tillis said Monday. “But I’ll support it for the short term – I think maybe, at the most, if he gets confirmed, three FOMC meetings.”

Rather than resign his CEA post, Miran told the Senate Banking Committee last week he would take an unpaid leave of absence — meaning he’d remain a White House employee while serving as a Fed governor. That is historically unprecedented.

One important caveat. Fed governors don’t need to leave the job after their term expires. Only when the Senate confirms a replacement does a governor get booted off the Federal Reserve Board.

That means that in practice — say if President Donald Trump declined to put forward a replacement after the term expires Jan. 31, 2026 — Miran could serve at the Fed for quite a while.

Meanwhile in crypto. Senate Democrats are ready to make their next move in crypto.

A bloc of 12 Senate Democrats released a policy framework this morning outlining their top priorities for market structure legislation. Republicans, who have been crafting their own starting offer, will need somewhere between seven to nine Democrats to clear the Senate filibuster.

The Democratic group is pushing for seven “key pillars” for market structure legislation, including the prevention of illicit finance, giving the regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority to regulate spot markets and preventing “corruption and abuse.”

Read the policy document here, signed by Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.).

Deadline watch. Democrats know Republicans are under pressure from the White House and crypto industry to get this package done. But the minority party is well aware of its leverage.

“Achieving a strong, bipartisan outcome will require time and cannot be rushed,” the Democrats wrote.

– Brendan Pedersen

THE LONE STAR STATE

Talarico’s pitch for change in Texas

Texas State Rep. James Talarico is entering the state’s Senate Democratic primary by demanding his party rip up their 2024 playbook if Democrats hope to win the Lone Star State next year.

In an interview, Talarico refused to say whether he’d support Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, called on Democrats to address voter concerns over Gaza and said his party needs “new blood” in Washington.

Talarico, 36, has served in the Texas legislature since 2018, gaining a reputation as a progressive firebrand who goes viral by invoking Bible verses.

Talarico joins a crowded Democratic primary featuring former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) and former NASA astronaut Terry Virts. Talarico said Democrats need to move past Allred’s 2024 strategy to flip the seat blue.

“To break through in Texas, we can’t run a traditional campaign,” Talarico told us, citing how he walked the length of his state house district during one of his campaigns. Talarico previously won a tight election but has since moved to a safer blue seat in the Austin suburbs.

Here are some highlights from our interview:

Schumer. Talarico — who has criticized coastal Democrats for a lack of fight — deflected when asked if he thought Schumer was the right person to lead Senate Democrats.

“I am not really up to date on the D.C. drama and conflicts,” Talarico said. “If I’m fortunate enough to get elected, I’m going to sit down with whoever is running for, hopefully majority leader, and hear about what they want to do with this role.”

Running against reconciliation. The Texas Democrat is gearing up to run against the health care cuts in the GOP reconciliation package, which he labeled “The Big Ugly Bill.”

“I don’t know any Texan — Republican or Democrat, conservative or progressive — who supports that deeply immoral legislation, and I think the lawmakers who did vote for it need to pay a price at the ballot box,” Talarico said.

The war in Gaza. We asked Talarico how he would’ve voted on the recent Senate disapproval resolutions seeking to block arm sales to Israel. Talarico wouldn’t comment and said he wasn’t familiar with the legislation. But Talarico added this about Israel’s war in Gaza:

“One of the primary reasons that the Democratic Party lost young voters in particular last election was our party’s failure to recognize the moral disaster in Gaza, and I hope that we have leaders who recognize that mistake.”

Allred speaks: In a statement, Allred said, “I’ve never taken anything for granted in life or politics, and this campaign is no exception.” The 2024 Senate candidate recently released polling showing him beating potential GOP candidate Ken Paxton in a general election matchup.

— Max Cohen

THE SENATE

Senate GOP to confirm 48 Trump nominees next week

Senate Republicans are teeing up four dozen sub-Cabinet nominees for confirmation next week as they move toward invoking the so-called “nuclear option” to change the chamber’s rules.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune took the first procedural step Monday night as part of Republicans’ effort to topple Democrats’ unprecedented blockade of President Donald Trump’s nominees.

Thune filed an executive resolution that lists the first 48 nominees he wants to confirm in a bloc. This is the vehicle Republicans are using to change the Senate’s rules to allow an unlimited number of sub-Cabinet nominees to be grouped together for one confirmation vote.

The list. The nominees listed in the resolution span several departments and agencies. But they all have one thing in common: They were approved with bipartisan support in committee.

Four of them are for foreign ambassadorships, including Callista Gingrich, nominated for U.S. ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein, and Kimberly Guilfoyle, Trump’s nominee for U.S. ambassador to Greece.

The list also includes former Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.), Trump’s pick for under secretary for nuclear security at the Energy Department.

Next steps. The Senate will vote to invoke cloture on Thune’s resolution on Thursday at a 60-vote threshold. This will fail, so Republicans will then vote to overrule the chair in order to lower the threshold to a simple majority.

That would put the Senate on track to pass the resolution on Monday, allowing Thune to tee up all 48 nominations as a single bloc. This sets up a cloture vote on Wednesday, Sept. 17, followed by a confirmation vote two hours later.

Dems respond. Senate Democrats know that this effort will help them when they’re back in the majority, but they’re using the occasion to remind Republicans that it was Trump who walked away from a deal to confirm a batch of nominees by voice vote right before the August recess.

Interestingly, here’s what Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), the future Democratic whip, said about the idea that Democrats will benefit from this rules change, too:

— Andrew Desiderio

GRANITE STATE LATEST

GOP poll: Sununu is competitive with Pappas

News: A poll commissioned by a top Senate Republican outside group shows former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) in a competitive race with Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) in a potential New Hampshire Senate matchup.

Pappas leads Sununu, 45% to 43%, in an initial head-to-head contest in the Granite State, per a memo circulated by One Nation — the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned group.

“If Sununu runs, Chris Pappas will be in for the fight of his political career,” the memo touts.

This memo is notable because it comes from a group with close ties to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and it’s the clearest sign yet that GOP leaders aren’t excited about former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), who’s already in the GOP primary.

New Hampshire’s Senate seat is open this cycle because Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is retiring. For the opening months of the 2026 cycle, Senate Republicans seemed content with Brown. But Sununu has emerged as the new favorite of Senate Republicans.

The poll, commissioned by 1892 polling, surveyed 500 likely voters and was in the field from Sept. 2-4, 2025. The margin of error is 4.4%.

Sununu has a last name that’s priceless in New Hampshire politics. But he’s been out of office since 2009 when he lost to Shaheen, and his profile is seen as less moderate than that of his younger brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu.

Ad Watch. South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette is out with another ad slamming Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), her opponent in the state’s gubernatorial primary. The spot, part of a $1 million buy, is running on digital and streaming and features video of Mace saying she is “pro-transgender rights.”

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

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