The Archive

PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

Happy Tuesday morning, and welcome to the October 2021 edition of The Tally. There are 13 months until the midterm elections, and we wanted to spend a few moments sharing with you some of what we’re seeing in our reporting on Congress and national politics. 

The current political climate can be boiled down to this: nervousness and anxiety among Democrats versus growing optimism among Republicans. The ghosts of 2010 haunt veteran Democrats, who worry that they could be seeing a replay of that GOP wipeout again next year.

The traditional midterm curse for new presidents, especially in House races, is hanging over Democrats. And redistricting — which is finally kicking into high gear after a late start thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic — is also a plus for House Republicans, although not as big of a boon as Democratic leaders once feared. 

But there’s more.

President Joe Biden’s sagging approval ratings, combined with rising inflation, ongoing supply chain problems, the crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border, policy fights inside the Democratic Party between the left and center, the botched Afghanistan withdrawal, GOP charges of Democratic “overreach,” the war over vaccine mandates — all of these factors are playing into the Democratic angst.

However, there’s always Donald Trump. The former president is a dual-edged sword for Republicans. He inspires unbelievable loyalty among GOP base voters, fervor at a level we’ve never seen before in American politics — and we witness this every day in the Capitol. Trump is undeniably still the head of the party, despite what Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other anti-Trumpers wish.

Yet Trump is also the best thing that Democrats have going for them. Trump wants to make the 2022 election all about relitigating 2020. That suits Trump’s needs, especially if he decides to run for the White House again, but it presents a massive problem for Republicans. Trump has warned that “Republicans will not be voting in ‘22 or ‘24 if they ‘don’t solve the Presidential Election Fraud’” of last year. There’s no reason to doubt that he’d do this; we saw the “Trump effect” play out in the Senate run-offs in Georgia in January. House Republicans have decided to keep Trump close, in hopes that he helps their candidates, although he’s endorsed against several incumbents in primaries. Senate Republicans also invited Trump to their Florida retreat earlier this month.

Yet the reality is Trump brought the country to the brink of a constitutional crisis on Jan. 6. Trump would blow up the Republican Party if he thought it would help him in some way — and every GOP leader knows this, even if they won’t admit it publicly.

Look at Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia. He’s making the Nov. 2 gubernatorial contest with Republican Glenn Youngkin a referendum on Trump. And Trump likes that, even as Youngkin vacillates between embracing Florida’s most famous resident while running away from him at the same time.

So let’s dive in. Today we’ll focus on the key players at the party campaign committees, as well as the state of play in key Senate races, who’s driving the spending in these races and what to look out for in the coming weeks and months. We hope you enjoy this special edition of The Tally. As always, please send us any thoughts and feedback. The Tally is going to be a major part of our content cadence ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

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THE PLAYERS

Who they are: Executive director of House Majority PAC since 2019.

Where they’ve been before: A veteran Democratic campaign operative, Horrell started her career like many political professionals do — as a field organizer in the Iowa caucuses. She worked for two cycles at the DCCC as Northeast political director and on the independent expenditure team. From 2013 to 2019, Horrell served as chief of staff for Rep. Ann Kuster (D-N.H.).

Horrell’s political mentor: Ann Kuster. Horrell said Kuster taught her about the importance of work-life balance while raising a family and being a strong female leader.

What do you think conventional wisdom is wrong about in 2022?: “We live in unprecedented times and we’re in a global pandemic. You can’t compare this election to any before it. And Republicans are kidding themselves if they think that they can just gerrymander their way to the majority.”

Who they are: Executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee since January 2021.

Where they’ve been before: Billings started his career on the official side and worked as chief of staff to House Republicans in competitive districts: Reps. Charlie Bass (N.H.), Dan Benishek (Mich.) and John Faso (N.Y.). Billings served as director of incumbent protection for the NRCC from 2019 to 2021, where he oversaw the successful reelection of all Republican incumbents last cycle.

Billings’ political mentor: Charlie Bass. Billings’ first official role was as Bass’ chief of staff, where he said he was taught the importance of retail politics and getting out of the D.C. bubble.

What do you think conventional wisdom is wrong about in 2022?: “That Republicans are going to have a turnout problem. I think what we’re seeing is Republicans are motivated more than ever as they’re watching the Pelosi-led House and an administration just go from crisis to crisis in this country.”

Who they are: President of Congressional Leadership Fund since 2019.

Where they’ve been before: Conston ran a political advertising and consulting firm that helped to elect a number of Republican lawmakers, including Reps. Dan Crenshaw (Texas) and Mike Waltz (Fla.), as well as Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.).

Conston’s political mentor: Brian Walsh, former president of CLF, is one of Conston’s political mentors. “A great political tactician,” Conston said. Conston also named Republican strategist Todd Harris, whom he worked for in 2008, as a mentor. 

What do you think conventional wisdom is wrong about in 2022?: “Midterm elections are referendums on parties in power. And midterm elections are driven largely by which base is more energized and enthusiastic. Along with, where’s the middle of the electorate pointing? And so from a 30,000 foot level, we feel like the political environment is strong and getting better for Republicans.” 

Who they are: Executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee since 2021.

Where they’ve been before: Roberts was a senior adviser at the DSCC last cycle, and she then moved to Georgia during the runoff to help lead Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-Ga.) campaign. In 2018, she managed Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) campaign in Montana. Roberts has also held different roles at the DSCC, including political director in 2016 and research director in 2014. 

Roberts’ political mentor: Jon Tester. “I’ve learned a lot from every boss I’ve worked for, but Sen. Jon Tester has taught me the most about how to win tough races. Tester’s authenticity, political instincts, and retail skills are unmatched. But his strong work ethic and focus – even when his opponent tries to knock him off course – are lessons I’ve carried with me through all my campaign jobs.” 

What do you think conventional wisdom is wrong about in 2022?: “If you look at the individual Senate races, Democrats have a real advantage right now. Our incumbents just announced strong fundraising quarters. Republicans are stuck in nasty, vicious primaries — and Trump is making their primaries even worse. And Republican Senate candidates are vocally opposing popular policies to help working families that Democrats are fighting for in the Senate — things like cutting taxes, lowering costs, and getting Americans get back to work after the pandemic. That’s a record that will be tough for Republicans to defend.”

Who they are: Executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee since 2021.

Where they’ve been before: Zeckman kicked off her political career as an intern on the Bush-Cheney campaign in 2004, eventually securing an internship in the Bush White House. Her first official role came in Florida as deputy press secretary for then-Gov. Rick Scott. Zeckman served as campaign manager for Scott’s successful Senate campaign in 2018, and then became chief of staff in Scott’s Senate office. 

Zeckman’s political mentor: Her long-time employer, Rick Scott. Zeckman says she learned the importance of “showing up” from Scott during her time in the governor’s office when multiple disasters and tragedies struck Florida.

What do you think conventional wisdom is wrong about in 2022?: “On the Senate, I would definitely say people think the map is not on our side because we have a number of retirements and open seats, but that’s completely wrong. [Joe] Biden’s image is crumbling all across the country, and we see it in polling. I would definitely say that it’s a great environment for us. … In all of our states, we have a deep bench of really, really great candidates coming together. I think when you’re looking at the Democratic primaries, they’re really becoming a race to the left.”

Who they are: Executive director at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee since 2021.

Where they’ve been before: Served as Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D-N.Y.) chief of staff from 2013 to 2019. Persico later ran his own consulting firm in Philadelphia. 

Persico’s political mentor: His family. "My grandfather’s father refused to vote for a Republican. My great-grandfather said, ‘You know, you wouldn’t vote for Jesus Christ if he was running as a Republican.’ My grandfather said, ‘Well, he had no business switching parties.’" 

What do you think conventional wisdom is wrong about in 2022?: “I think what we get tied into a lot is the macro picture, the big moving pieces. And I think that there’s a lot of punditry and horse race analysis about who’s up, who’s down week by week. And you know, [there’s] nothing wrong with that. It’s important, it’s meaningful. But I also think you have to actually win election by election. It’s district by district, it’s member by member. And I think we have the best pros in the business on our front line. The people who need to win these races to keep the majority.”

KEY STATE ELECTION DATES

THE SENATE RACES

Messaging overview: The first-term senator decries partisan politics at every turn and declares his eagerness to work with Republicans. Kelly’s campaign mainly talks about non-charged issues, such as infrastructure, small business and the economy. Kelly’s strongly defined brand in Arizona is bolstered by his background as an astronaut and combat veteran. Kelly’s messaging stresses these nonpartisan roles and his commitment to public service. A political newcomer, Kelly presented himself as an outsider disgusted with Washington’s dysfunction during his 2020 win over former Republican Sen. Martha McSally. He’s trying to replicate that approach in 2022. Kelly is very cautious around reporters. Kelly doesn’t exactly run away from them, but he isn’t running toward them either.

Their record (what legislation they are running on): A member of the larger 22-senator bipartisan infrastructure group, Kelly ties himself closely to the public works deal. Kelly also touts measures he secured in the Senate-passed USICA bill that would bring semiconductor manufacturing jobs to Arizona.

Local issues: A storyline dominating headlines in Arizona media is the Colorado River water shortage. Kelly held a Senate hearing on this issue, which affects farmers and local businesses. Kelly is also playing up his support for increased funding for U.S. Border Patrol agents. This wouldn’t play with Democrats nationally, but it’s big in border state Arizona. Kelly talks up his role in securing Paycheck Protection Program funding for Hispanic-owned businesses.

National focus: None, really. Kelly largely keeps his head down in Washington and isn’t grabbing headlines like the state’s senior senator, fellow Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. 

Biden’s role: Non-existent. Kelly’s campaign Twitter account hasn’t mentioned the president since a congratulations message on Inauguration Day. A clue as to why? Kelly outperformed Biden in Arizona by nearly two points in 2020.

Fave fundraising appeal: Via Kelly’s campaign Twitter account: “I first ran for Senate to bring a reliance on science, data, and facts back to Washington — because the problems we face as a country are too important to let partisan politics get in the way. Chip in $5 to our campaign below if you agree.”

Ad watch: Not on the airwaves yet, despite massive early fundraising hauls.

Opponent watch: We’ve detailed how brutal the Arizona GOP primary is, with Peter Thiel-backed Blake Masters already hitting Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich on TV for being soft on immigration. The chaos hasn’t been helped by the zany GOP-backed election audit. Kelly isn’t engaging with his Republican opponents yet.

Messaging overview: Cortez Masto’s reelection messaging centers around her securing what Nevada needs from major pieces of federal legislation. Another focus is her work revamping Nevada’s economy, whether through American Rescue Plan protections for tourism workers or new environmental standards included in the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal. In pro-choice Nevada, Cortez Masto is strongly speaking out against anti-abortion measures.

Their record (what legislation they are running on): Cortez Masto touts her work in ensuring the American Rescue Plan secured health insurance for workers in Nevada’s tourism industry, as well as federal funding for tourism-reliant states. She’s also highlighting the bipartisan infrastructure deal as necessary to battle Nevada’s environmental challenges.

Local issues: Cortez Masto’s focus on environmental issues in Nevada may not make national news, but it is plastered over the front pages of local media. Her proposal for a water recycling program to alleviate the drought in southern Nevada made it into the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Cortez Masto also saw wildfire monitoring legislation passed to address the crisis in the northern part of the state.

National focus: Cortez Masto is vocally pro-abortion rights in a state that passed a ballot initiative in 1990 codifying Roe v. Wade. The controversy over Texas “fetal heartbeat” law has energized Cortez Masto’s focus on abortion rights, an issue she feels is a winning one in Nevada. She’s recently appeared at several pro-choice events in Nevada. The campaign is framing abortion as a high-stakes issue, as Roe could be overturned by the Supreme Court.

Biden’s role: Non-existent. No mention of the president on her campaign Twitter account since November 2020.

Fave fundraising appeal: From ActBlue: “The end-of-quarter deadline is tonight and I need your help. McConnell is only ONE seat away from retaking power and CNN says my race is a top pickup opportunity for the GOP. Senate control hinges on NV, so please chip in whatever you can before midnight.”

Ad watch: Not on the air yet.

Opponent watch: Her most likely opponent, Republican Adam Laxalt, is seen as vulnerable on the issue of abortion access. The state’s former attorney general, Laxalt has raised large sums to start his campaign, but is also coming off a losing effort in the 2018 gubernatorial race.

Messaging overview: Warnock is among the most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents heading into 2022. Throughout his campaign ads and public appearances, Warnock hones in on voting rights and issues impacting everyday people. Warnock also talks about his background as a minister. The senator’s campaign website refers to him as “Reverend Raphael Warnock” and establishes his identity as the pastor-activist-senator from Georgia.

Their record (what legislation they are running on): Despite being a new senator, Warnock has already become one of the leading Democratic voices on voting rights. The issue has been a central focus during his first year in office. Warnock was one of the key players in crafting the Democrats’ massive “For the People Act,” which later stalled due to heavy Republican opposition. Warnock and fellow Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff cast “decisive” votes in favor of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which has been President Joe Biden and the Democrats’ biggest achievement to date.

Local issues: He has pushed for an expansion of Medicaid in the reconciliation bill and has been critical of cuts to children’s healthcare programs. Georgia has not expanded the income threshold for Medicaid access; Warnock has been a key voice in opposition to that decision.

National focus: Voting rights. Voting rights. Voting rights. And voting rights. Did we say voting rights?

Biden’s role: There’s no mention of the president on Warnock’s website.

Fave fundraising appeal: From ActBlue, “Donate before 11:59 p.m. tonight to make sure Mitch McConnell never becomes Majority leader of our Senate ever again.” Also from ActBlue, “Donate by 11:59 p.m. tonight to defend our Democratic Senate majority and protect voting rights!” 

Ad watch: Not up on the air yet.

Opponent watch: Former football star Herschel Walker is Warnock’s most serious challenger. Walker, who has Trump’s endorsement, is one of several contenders for Warnock’s seat. State Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, former Navy SEAL Latham Saddler and military vet Kelvin King are the other Republicans eyeing the seat. However, Warnock has raised more than $9.5 million in the third quarter, far ahead of Walker’s $3.7 million.

Messaging overview: Many consider Hassan the most vulnerable Senate Democrat in 2022. The former governor is already on the airwaves touting her bipartisanship in a state that prides itself on independent voters. Hassan is emphasizing her work in the Senate fighting for local issues, including providing help for veterans, tax credits for small businesses and getting New Hampshire’s economy back on track coming out of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Their record (what legislation they are running on): Keeping up with her effort to stress bipartisanship, Hassan has done a major sales job of the bipartisan infrastructure deal — of which she served as a member of the larger working group. Hassan also touts her work with Republicans in co-sponsoring an anti-surprise medical billing legislation with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and a veterans’ mental health program with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). 

Local issues: New Hampshire’s large veteran population plays into Hassan’s focus on improving veterans’ health care. Hassan emphasizes how the bipartisan infrastructure deal benefits New Hampshire, such as strengthening coastal resiliency in the state’s small coastal area. Recent anti-abortion measures taken by GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, Hassan’s potential general election opponent, have incensed pro-abortion rights advocates in New Hampshire — an anger Hassan is trying to capitalize on. 

National focus: Hassan is trying to connect the national news about Texas’ restrictive abortion law to the anti-abortion measures signed into law by Sununu.

Biden’s role: In a state Biden won comfortably in 2020, Hassan is embracing the president more than her fellow vulnerable Democrats. While Biden isn’t appearing in her ads, Hassan has praised him multiple times on her campaign Twitter account for signing into law several bills she sponsored. 

Fave fundraising appeal: From ActBlue: “This is urgent: A recent poll shows Sen. Maggie Hassan losing 48-49 to her presumed challenger who is Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate. And if we lose this vulnerable seat, that means giving up our razor-thin Democratic Senate majority and ceding control back to the GOP. We must send a message to Mitch McConnell and the GOP that flipping this seat red won’t be so easy.”

Ad watch: Hassan’s campaign stands out with its substantial early television buys totaling $1.5 million — a large amount this early in the cycle. Her first ad highlighted Hassan’s work in the Senate supporting veterans with long-term mental health challenges. The campaign’s next two ads, which went up last week, highlight Hassan’s support for tax credits benefitting New Hampshire small businesses. Her campaign is sticking to a disciplined playbook by focusing on non-partisan, non-ideological issues such as veteran relations and the economy.

Opponent watch: Perhaps the most vaunted yet-to-announce primary challenger in the country, Sununu looms large over the contest with his sky-high approval ratings in a blue state. But it’s not all smooth sailing for Sununu; Democrats think running on social issues in New Hampshire is a mistake for the GOP. Sununu has also faced anger from the Republican base for ticking off former President Donald Trump and not doing more to oppose vaccine mandates.

Messaging Overview:  Rubio is seeking a third Senate term in the increasingly red battleground state of Florida. Based upon recent history, Rubio has a slight edge heading into 2022. Rubio’s messaging is clear — he’s focused on fighting the “socialist-Marxist” agenda of the Democrats, “woke corporations,” China and the “crisis at the border.” 

Their record (what legislation they’re running on): Expect to see Rubio lean heavily on his co-authorship of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), the $500-billion plus initiative created by Congress to deal with the huge economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. PPP was one of the biggest successes of the trillions of dollars spent by the federal government. Rubio is also highlighting his bipartisan measure, co-sponsored by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), to improve care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits in Afghanistan.

Local issues: The son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio is hyper-aware of the influential voting blocs of Venezuelan and Cuban Americans in Florida. His messaging is by far the most foreign-policy focused of any incumbent senator in a competitive seat; Rubio constantly calls out the Maduro regime and Cuba’s communist government. Rubio has also focused on obtaining federal funding for restoring the Everglades. 

National focus: Unlike the vulnerable Senate Democrats up next year, who are largely eschewing charged partisan themes, Rubio is comfortable slamming the Biden administration on national issues including immigration, inflation and foreign policy. What’s more, Rubio is by far the most well-known incumbent up next year, due in part to his 2016 presidential run. The senator’s provocative tweets, blasted out to 4.2 million followers, consistently go viral. Rubio is also a frequent guest on Fox News’ shows.

Biden’s role: Rubio is a constant critic of President Joe Biden — a safe bet in a state Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020. Rubio rips Biden for his handling of the border crisis, a perceived softness on China relations, rising inflation and what Rubio labels the “wokeness” infecting the federal government and America as a whole.

Fave fundraising appeal: From WinRed: “The Democrat who led Trump’s Impeachment raised $8.4 MILLION! We need everyone who sees this to commit to a second donation on 10/31, or Marco Rubio LOSES!”

Ad watch: Not on the air yet.

Opponent watch: Democratic Rep. Val Demings is the big name in a crowded primary field. Demings — who frequently reminds people that she spent 27 years in law enforcement — was the pick of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer for this race. Demings, who gained a national following as an impeachment manager during Trump’s first Senate trial, raised a stunning $8.5 million last quarter — over $2 million more than Rubio raised and better than any other Senate challenger in the country. 

Messaging overview: Johnson — who has yet to officially announce that he’s seeking a third term — is the most endangered GOP incumbent this cycle. The most recent statewide poll (August) had Johnson seven points underwater in approval-disapproval rating, 35-42. From his opposition to vaccine mandates, his false claims about the "rigged" 2020 election and his allegiance to former President Donald Trump, his attempts to downplay the Jan. 6 insurrection, his investigation into Hunter Biden — there’s just an endless list of issues where Johnson has infuriated Democrats. Johnson is a classic culture warrior. It’s where Johnson will stake his campaign if he runs again: anti-Joe Biden, anti-vaccine mandates, anti-socialism, and pro-Trump had the election stolen from him. Let’s also note that Democrats were pretty confident they could beat Johnson in 2010 and 2016, and they were wrong both times.

Their record (what legislation they’re running on): As we noted, Johnson is more culture warrior than high-octane legislator, but he did pass some bills during Trump’s presidency. Johnson supported the 2017 GOP tax cut, although ProPublica reported that only came after the administration “fattened” the pass-through provision for business entities, which helped benefit some major donors. In 2018, Johnson helped pass “right to try” legislation that allows terminally ill patients to try experimental treatments. Johnson has pushed tougher immigration regulations throughout his time in the Senate. Improving U.S. cybersecurity defenses was another Johnson focus during his tenure as Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee chair.

Local issues: Like any Wisconsin pol, Johnson has spent a lot of time talking about agriculture and trade. Johnson backed legislation that would help farmers reorganize after filing bankruptcy. Johnson, who helped build a successful plastic packaging business before coming to the Senate, has also been consistently anti-tariff throughout his Senate career, which sometimes put him in conflict with the Trump administration.

National focus: Johnson has taken on the role as the most vocal challenger of vaccine mandates among Senate Republicans. His website is filled with press releases on this issue, and he co-sponsored legislation on preventing “unconstitutional vaccine mandates.” And like other Republicans in Congress, Johnson has hammered the Biden White House on the immigration crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. Johnson will get a lot of mileage out of this if he runs again. Johnson is also “very concerned” about the $28 trillion national debt. He opposed the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill on these grounds.

Biden’s role: Biden could play a role here depending on who the Democratic nominee is and whether the president’s poll numbers turn around next year. Biden beat former President Donald Trump by just over 20,000 votes in Wisconsin last November.

Fave fundraising appeal: From WinRed: “The HuffPost, CNN, and MSNBC have already smeared Ron’s name through hit pieces and attack ads this month. We are planning our response, but we must have the necessary funds to set the record straight. Will you help us by making a donation again on the 31st?”

Ad watch: Not on the air yet.

Opponent watch: This is your proverbial crowded Democratic field. As we said before, Wisconsin Democrats are eager to run against  Johnson. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is probably the biggest name, but there’s also state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry (his father, Marc Lasry, co-owns the team), Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and others.

THE MONEY GAME

Thanks to our friends at AdImpact, we’ve assembled a handy ranking of political spending. This guide breaks down what outside groups and candidates are spending big. It also shows what the top issues are hitting the airwaves during the last two months. 

While we’ve analyzed the data for the top 50 spenders and issues, we’ve graphed the top 10 for both categories for your viewing convenience. 

Note: The political advertiser statistics are for all media spending (broadcast TV, cable, radio, Facebook, Google, etc.), while the issue spending statistics are solely from broadcast TV.

Top 10 political advertisers over the last eight weeks

The last eight weeks have been dominated by the two major gubernatorial races: first in California, where pro-Newsom forces spent nearly $15 million defeating a GOP-led recall, and now in Virginia, where the McAuliffe and Youngkin’s campaigns have combined for over $27 million in spending. 

A mixture of GOP-backed groups — Common Sense Leadership Fund ($9.8 million and American Action Network ($7.5 million) — and Democratic organizations — League of Conservation Voters ($10 million) and Building Back Together ($9.3 million) — round out the top ten.

Other notable figures outside the top 10:

→ House Majority Forward, the Democratic House campaign outside group, spent $3.8 million.

→ NRSC spent $2.6 million.

→ Club for Growth spent $2.5 million, as did PhRMA.

→ GOP-aligned One Nation spent $2.1 million, notably on ads attacking vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents.

→ Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) spent $1.5 million.

Top 10 issues spent on during the past 8 weeks

The top 10 issues by money spent feature expected campaign themes like healthcare, the pandemic, crime, education and the economy. Energy and the environment also crack the top 10, as well as childcare — a major theme of President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better package.

Other major issues that have dominated the political conversation this year — like infrastructure ($1 million), inflation ($1.3 million) and immigration ($300,000) — don’t make the list.

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING DATA

President Joe Biden’s sagging approval ratings are often discussed as a killer blow to Democratic chances of keeping control of the House. Check out how Biden’s numbers compare to past presidential approval ratings in the October before a midterm election.