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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Thursday morning. Today is a big day in the Capitol. The late Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.) will lie in state in the Rotunda. And the Senate will hold a contentious cloture vote on a measure allowing senators to raise the debt limit by a simple majority on a one-time basis.

Let’s get this out of the way — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will get the 10 Republicans he needs to help end debate on this debt-limit process bill. Democrats will supply the rest of the votes needed, and then the Senate can move toward actually raising the debt limit. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has told Congress it must act by Dec. 15, next Wednesday. 

Here’s a whip list of 10 GOP senators on the record who’ll vote for cloture: McConnell, Minority Whip John Thune of South Dakota; John Cornyn of Texas; Roger Wicker of Mississippi; Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia; Roy Blunt of Missouri; Susan Collins of Maine; Rob Portman of Ohio; and Thom Tillis and Richard Burr of North Carolina.

Those 10 Republican yes votes, when combined with 50 Democratic votes, is enough to invoke cloture at this afternoon’s vote.

The cloture vote is 12:30 p.m. today. Under Senate rules, there would then be up to 30 hours of debate until final passage on the legislation. But thanks to a little Senate scheduling magic, the latest this final vote could occur is at 7 a.m. on Friday. 

The hope by party leaders on both sides is that opponents of the debt-limit process bill will yield back time, possibly allowing the Senate to approve the measure today and then send it on to President Joe Biden. That could potentially allow the Senate to vote on the actual debt-limit increase tomorrow, although Monday still seems more likely. A number of senators are going to Kansas this weekend for Dole’s funeral. 

Several Republicans wouldn’t say Wednesday night whether they’ll vote for cloture. Senate Republican Conference Chair John Barrasso (Wyo.), the No. 3 in the GOP hierarchy, would only say, “I don’t have anything for you.” Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Mike Crapo (Idaho), Ron Johnson (Wis.), Josh Hawley (Mo.), Jim Inhofe (Okla.), Bill Cassidy (La.) and Jerry Moran (Kan.) said they were undecided or declined to tell us how they’ll vote. Sen. Mike Rounds (S.D.) was a “Lean no.” All the other Republicans we talked to late Wednesday evening — another eight or so — were solidly opposed.

In many ways, this will be the toughest vote for Senate Republicans this year. Yes, it’s a process vote that very few people outside of D.C. really understand. And yes, Senate Democrats will have to carry the vote on actually increasing the debt limit by themselves. That could immediately become an issue in the reelection races of Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.).

But this has been a particularly bruising episode for McConnell. He’s been beaten up in public and private by rank-and-file GOP senators for the last couple of days, including during a Steering Committee meeting on Wednesday. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, ranking Republican on the Budget Committee, berated him, as did several other GOP senators attending the session. Graham doesn’t like the decision by McConnell and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to attach the debt-limit process provisions to an underlying bill delaying Medicare sequestration cuts scheduled to kick in on Jan. 1. 

Graham also opposes having House members vote on a Senate rule change, even if it was a one-time situation. “I just don’t like the idea of marrying stuff up to Medicare,” Graham told us on Wednesday night. “I don’t like the idea of changing the rules of the Senate in the House. No matter what the issue is, we’re setting a bad precedent.”

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) offered a proposal to block the Medicare cuts without the debt-limit provision, but that was blocked by Democrats, who said the Senate must stick to the Schumer-McConnell deal.

“I’ve been given a deal with two doors,” Kennedy said, as only he can. “Door number one is a heart attack. Door number two is cancer. What I tried to do today is make sure it’s a mild heart attack.”

But Republicans backing the measure said it was the responsible thing to do. The U.S. economy can’t withstand a big partisan battle that could lead to a possible debt default.

McConnell — who tried unsuccessfully for months to force Democrats to handle a debt-limit increase under reconciliation — is also trying to position his party for the 2022 elections. By ending this dispute now — even though he was the one who initially elevated it back in July — McConnell is trying to make sure Republicans aren’t the issue next year. He wants the focus to remain firmly on Biden and the Democrats, believing the president’s unpopularity will help the GOP take back the majority.

“The fact of the matter is that next week, we [Republicans] are going to vote against raising the debt ceiling,” Tillis said. “Democrats are going to have to own it. We just need to move forward.”

Tillis added: “Look at all the other issues. This is a point-in-time vote. But take a look at all the other issues we’re dealing with here, that’s what the American people are focused on.”

BEHIND THE SCENES

In the Ways and Means battle, fresh crab legs are served 

It’s basically a foregone conclusion inside the House Republican leadership that Rep. Vern Bucnahan, wealthy Florida Republican, will be the next top GOP lawmaker on the Ways and Means Committee. We spoke to some of the most influential Republicans over the last few days, and they concede this privately. Other Republicans may make noise about running for the slot after the 2022 elections, but there won’t be much of a contest. (Remember: Rep. Devin Nunes was going to be the top Republican in the next Congress, but he’s resigning this month. And Rep. Kevin Brady, the current top Republican, is retiring at the end of this term.)

But Buchanan is running like he has a race already. This week, the 70-year-old former car dealer sent fresh crab legs from Joe’s Stone Crab to members of the House Republican Steering Committee, the influential panel that sets committee assignments. The committee won’t consider Buchanan’s bid until after the 2022 elections, so he’ll need to keep those crab legs coming, thank you very much.

The steering panel will consider the top slot on the committee in late 2022 or early 2023. But more immediately, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the Steering Committee must fill the seat left vacant by Nunes’ retirement. 

We hear there are a few leading candidates for this coveted spot: first-term Rep. Greg Murphy of North Carolina; Rep. David Kustoff of Tennessee; Rep. Greg Stuebe of Florida; and Rep. Beth Van Duyne of Texas. Just a note: If you are a House Republican or work for a House Republican who wants to be considered for Ways and Means, drop Jake a line and we will report on whether you have a chance. 

Steering won’t meet until 2022 to make its decision here, so there’s time for other candidates to emerge. Furthermore, if Republicans get the majority, they will get more seats on the committee, so showing interest now could just be a way to flag for the leadership that you want a seat in the future.

JOB MOVE

Square Inc., the payment company, made waves earlier this month when it changed its corporate name to Block. Now it’s bringing on a top D.C. hand to lead its federal policy group. 

Tom Manatos — pictured above — is leaving Spotify to lead federal policy for Block. Manatos will report to Amanda Anderson, the leader of Block’s Americas policy and government relations team. Block also has House Financial Services Committee alumni Olamide Williams and Courtney Robinson on its in-house team. 

The Manatos hire is noteworthy because Block is going to be focusing much more on digital assets, and, as we’ve said before, the digital asset space has a lot of work to do in D.C. 

FRONTS

MOMENTS

8 a.m.: President Joe Biden will speak at the virtual Summit for Democracy.

8:15 a.m.: Biden will host a leader session at the summit. 

10 a.m.: Biden, First Lady Jill Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will come to the Capitol for a ceremony honoring the life of Bob Dole.

12:30 p.m.: Biden will speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

1:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief. 

1:45 p.m.: Biden will speak with the leaders of Poland and Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia — the Bucharest Nine — about his Tuesday call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

3:15 p.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) will hold a news conference on the passage of the Protecting Our Democracy Act.

3:30 p.m.: Biden and Harris will meet with members of the White House Covid-19 response team.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Event Planner Working on Bob Dole’s Funeral Is Let Go for Jan. 6 Ties,” by Michael D. Shear, Luke Broadwater and Maggie Haberman

→ “More Evidence Muddles Durham’s Case on Lawyer’s Meeting With F.B.I.,” by Charlie Savage

→ “Biden Rallies Global Democracies as U.S. Hits a ‘Rough Patch,’” by Michael Crowley and Zolan Kanno-Youngs

WaPo

→ “Low-profile heiress who ‘played a strong role’ in financing Jan. 6 rally is thrust into spotlight,” by Beth Reinhard, Jacqueline Alemany and Josh Dawsey 

→ “Senate votes to repeal key Biden administration vaccine and testing policy,” by Tony Romm

→ “Biden to award three Medals of Honor for combat actions in Iraq, Afghanistan,” by Dan Lamothe

→ "Kremlin sees expanded talks with U.S. on Ukraine crisis after Putin call with Biden,” by Robyn Dixon and David L. Stern in Moscow

WSJ

→ “U.S. Moves to Tighten Iran Sanctions Enforcement as Nuclear Talks Stall,” by Laurence Norman

Bloomberg

→ “Evergrande Declared in Default as Massive Restructuring Looms,” by Rebecca Choong Wilkins

FT

→ “US to blacklist Chinese AI company SenseTime over Xinjiang ahead of IPO,” by Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington, Hudson Lockett in Dallas and Ryan McMorrow in Beijing

AP

→ “Biden to decry democracy ‘recession’ at White House summit,” by Aamer Madhani and Lisa Mascaro

→ “The AP Interview: CDC chief says omicron mostly mild so far,” by Michael Stobbe

LAT

→ “​​Democrats weigh overturning Senate parliamentarian’s ruling on immigration,” by Jennifer Habekorn

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images