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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

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Here’s a challenge: Make the argument that Donald Trump had nothing to do with the riot at the Capitol after the first few days of the impeachment trial.

It’s damn tough. 

The Democratic impeachment managers did something Wednesday that desperately needed to be done: They laid out in a thorough, comprehensive and digestible manner what Trump said and did in the months and days leading up to the bloody Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

They covered all aspects of Trump’s shocking behavior — his provocative tweets, TV interviews and speeches claiming the election was being stolen; his months-long campaign to undermine the American public’s faith in the election results; his efforts, both public and private, to overturn those results once it was clear he lost, especially his attempts to pressure former Vice President Mike Pence; his repeated appeals to his supporters to come to Washington on Jan. 6, the same day Congress was set to certify Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory; his inflammatory speech that day on the Ellipse, including his exhortation to thousands of angry followers to “fight like hell” and march on the Capitol; his unwillingness to act once it was clear that a violent insurrection had broken out on Capitol Hill; and the physical and mental damage left in the wake of the attack, including dead and wounded police officers who threw themselves in harm’s way to protect members, senators, and American democracy itself.

It was a riveting, utterly damning indictment of the 45th president. No one who watched the presentation can come away believing that Trump didn’t have a direct role in inciting the cataclysm of violence that erupted that day. Whether he should be convicted and sanctioned is another issue.

You can argue that the House’s lightning-fast impeachment process denied Trump his due process rights, and you’d have a case. You can argue that Congress can’t impeach a former president, and that’s fine, it’s a legitimate point. You can say that the House should’ve held hearings and taken their time instead of rushing to impeach;  that’s a debate worth having. You can argue his speech is protected by the Constitution — and you might be able to score legal points there. You can argue that his behavior doesn’t meet the standards for incitement. 

Of course, the Senate is not an impartial jury, and this isn’t a legal trial but rather a political process.

But you simply cannot say that Trump had nothing to do with the insurrection at the Capitol. That’s not an argument anyone can make with a straight face.

Punch Up: The impeachment trial ended for the day Wednesday with a procedural kurfuffle involving Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah). Read NYT’s Emily Cochrane and Luke Broadwater if you want to know more.

COVID RELIEF 

Will House Dems include $15 min. wage?

The plan by President Joe Biden and Democratic leaders to raise the minimum wage to $15 per hour for millions of American workers is on track for now. But whether they can actually get it through Congress and onto Biden’s desk remains in doubt.

And another question that the House Democratic leaders are wrestling with: If the minimum-wage provision won’t end up in the $1.9 trillion Covid relief package, should they strip it out in the House, or should they let the Senate do it instead? It’s a tougher political question than you may think.

House and Senate leaders are using the budget reconciliation process to push through Biden’s Covid relief package, known as the “American Rescue Plan.” That way Democrats can pass it in the Senate with only a majority vote. But to do that, Democrats have to meet certain parliamentary hurdles, and the overall bill must pass the muster of the dreaded Byrd Rule.

On Tuesday night, the House Education and Labor Committee gave the green light to boosting the minimum wage to $15 per hour by 2025. Republicans were strongly opposed to the move, pointing to a study by the Congressional Budget Office that said the wage hike could cost 1.4 million jobs. Democrats, however, pointed to the same study, which notes that raising the minimum wage could lift 900,000 Americans out of poverty. Overall, 17 million workers would be affected by the wage hike.

The next hurdle will be the House Budget Committee. That panel takes all the different pieces of the Covid reconciliation package — the work of nine different committees — and assembles them into one bill. That markup will take place next week.

Here’s the catch: The Byrd Rule may not allow the minimum wage increase to be included in the Senate version of the Covid reconciliation bill. It’s complicated, but the Senate parliamentarian could rule against Democrats and knock it out. 

The challenge for Democrats in both chambers, however, is that the parliamentarian — the highly respected Elizabeth MacDonough — hasn’t ruled on the issue yet. There’s this little impeachment trial for former President Donald Trump taking up the Senate’s time at this moment — you may have heard about it.

Anyway, House Democrats hope to get some indication on how MacDonough will rule before the Budget Committee’s markup next week, even if it’s not a formal ruling. They could then strip the provision out of the package prior to that markup. That would make their moderates happy, but infuriate their liberals

Or they could leave it in, move ahead with a House vote on the Covid package, and let Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) deal with the problem. That would make their progressives happy, not so much for moderates. It’s also a potential problem for Schumer. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is demanding the minimum wage increase be included in the Senate bill, while key moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) says an $11 per hour rate is just fine.

2022

What’s on Josh Mandel’s mind

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Josh Mandel gave us a buzz on Wednesday afternoon to talk about his bid for the open Senate seat in Ohio — the one that Rob Portman is vacating. Mandel announced he was running Wednesday, which will put him in a primary field that’s likely to include Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) and Jane Timken, the Ohio Republican Party chair. This will be Mandel’s third time running for Senate: He lost to Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in 2012, and dropped out of the race to face Brown again in 2018 because of family health problems. 

Mandel is a prolific fundraiser. He has $4.3 million on hand from previous races. That puts him in the lead in the cash race.

Here are some other observations:

→ Mandel is extraordinarily eager to tie himself to Donald Trump — he mentioned the 45th president 18 times in a 14-minute interview. Mandel said he has “been President Trump’s number one ally in Ohio.” Mandel noted he was the first statewide elected official to endorse Trump and that he had stuck with Trump after the “Access Hollywood” tape in 2016, and in 2020, he was “one of the only Ohioans” to raise $500,000 for Trump. “I’m the one candidate who is going to run for this Senate seat, who can unite the Trump base, the conservative base and also in the general election and win over a lot of Democrats," he told us.

Mandel is a former statewide elected official. He was the Ohio treasurer from 2011 to 2019. He told us his message is “advancing the Trump America first agenda, advancing the cause of economic freedom and individual liberty.” He added, “The reason why I won by such high margins and I was able to win in these very tough districts, is because I was advancing a Trump message before he ever ran for president.” He was Trump before Trump, in other words.

→ We asked him about his possible opponents, Timken and Stivers. He didn’t want to comment on them directly. But Mandel did say that he would “stand up for working people here in Ohio, not the Harvard elites.” Timken went to Harvard. Mandel didn’t engage on Stivers, but noted he’s the only candidate who can unite the base and win the general election. “The Ohio electorate spoke loudly this past November and also in November 2016 that they don’t want a moderate running Ohio or running the country. They want a conservative warrior who will stand up for and advance the America first agenda," he said.

→ We asked Mandel if he would support Mike DeWine, the sitting Republican governor who is up for re-election in 2022. “The only race I’m focused on is my race for the United States Senate. But I will tell you that I think the governor that has best handled coronavirus nationally is [Florida] Gov. Ron DeSantis. I applaud Gov. DeSantis for having the guts and the backbone to keep small businesses open and keep schools open.” DeSantis, of course, is a staunch Trump ally.

→ Mandel said he doesn’t know Rep. Tim Ryan, a leading candidate for the Democratic nomination. “As a congressman, his policies are more in touch with San Francisco and Harvard than they are Columbus and Dayton.” Ryan is from Youngstown, went to college in Ohio and law school in New Hampshire.

→ Mandel has some challenges, of course. If he and Timken both get in the race and prove to be viable candidates, they could split the conservative vote and help someone like Stivers. Mandel said he didn’t believe that to be the case. When we asked why, he said because he stands up to leaders of his party — not really an answer.

Furthermore, we wonder if Trump will be as popular in 2022 as he was in 2016 and 2020. Mandel said he will be because Trump’s policies helped Ohioans. We’ll see.

We also asked about whether losing a Senate race will hurt him. Brown beat Mandel by six points in 2012. “If anything, the fact that I ran for office in Ohio, been on the ballot in successful winning two elections by double digits. And building this statewide grassroots organization and financial organization. I’m confident that we’re gonna win the primary and win the general.”

MOMENTS

10 a.m.: President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris will meet with senators on infrastructure. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will join virtually. 

10:30 a.m.: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will hold a news conference with Georgia Sens. Jon Osoff and Raphael Warnock about their efforts in the Covid-19 bill. 

10:45 a.m.: Speaker Nancy Pelosi will hold her weekly news conference. 

11:15 a.m.: Biden and Harris will get the daily briefing.

12:30 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

3:45 p.m.: Biden will visit the Viral Pathogenesis Laboratory at the NIH in Bethesda.

4:30 p.m.: Biden will speak to the NIH staff.

CLIP FILE

NYT: “Trump Justice Department Sought to Block Search of Giuliani Records,” by Ben Protess and William K. Rashbaum: “In the final months of the Trump administration, senior Justice Department officials repeatedly sought to block federal prosecutors in Manhattan from taking a crucial step in their investigation into Rudolph W. Giuliani’s dealings in Ukraine, delaying a search warrant for some of Mr. Giuliani’s electronic records, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

“The actions by political appointees at the Justice Department in Washington effectively slowed the investigation as it was gaining momentum last year.”

“Impeachment Trial May Hinge on Meaning of ‘Incitement’,” by Adam Liptak

“‘We Have to Relive It’: Images Revive Painful Memories in Senate,” by Luke Broadwater and Emily Cochrane

WaPo: “State and local GOP committees attack any Republicans who dare turn on Trump,” by Michael Scherer

“Republican senators show emotion, but little evidence of changed minds,” by Seung Min Kim and Karoun Demirjian: “If the Democratic House managers’ goal was to make it personally and politically painful for Republicans to clear Trump, they appeared to make headway Wednesday, raising the question of whether any more GOP senators would join the half-dozen who appear willing to consider conviction.

“But it remained clear that Democrats would almost certainly fall far short of the 17 Republicans they need to join them for conviction. That created a vivid contrast between the emotion inside the Senate chamber and many senators’ legalistic explanations outside it.”

“Everything about Trump’s impeachment trial is personal,” by Robin Givhan

WSJ: “Iran Has Started Producing Uranium Metal, in Violation of 2015 Accords, IAEA Says,” by Laurence Norman

AP: “Biden in call with China’s Xi raises human rights, trade,” by Aamer Madhani

FOR THE HISTORY BOOKS

The lead column in the NYT today. 

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