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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN
WITH MAX COHEN AND CHRISTIAN HALL

THE TOP

Happy Monday morning. Today is Heather Caygle’s first day at Punchbowl News! We’re so excited, and you should be too. Punchbowl News readers will quickly see how essential she is to understanding Congress, power and the politics of governing. Follow her on Twitter. 

Four issues will drive the debate on Capitol Hill this week, and they’re all inexorably intertwined – the $1.5 trillion omnibus package, aid for Ukraine, Russian oil/energy imports and Covid relief. 

With government funding expiring Friday night, House and Senate appropriators were scrambling to finish the omnibus package over the weekend. House Democrats currently plan to file the omnibus late Monday night or Tuesday, and vote on the measure as soon as Wednesday, according to a half-dozen sources close to the issue. Remember: The House recesses Wednesday because the Democrats have their retreat in Philadelphia. That would give the Senate several days to pass the bill. And they may need it.

Now this is all pretty tenuous, and there are a number of outstanding issues remaining to be resolved on the omnibus package, despite what both sides describe as “solid progress” over the weekend. The most serious one is the White House’s request for $22.5 billion in new Covid relief funding.

Republicans have objected to the request, arguing that the Biden administration should provide an “accounting of how the federal government allocated trillions in taxpayer funds to combat the pandemic.” 

Appropriators were trying to determine if they could offset some of the administration’s Covid request by rescinding unspent state pandemic relief funds, according to two sources. 

It’s very unlikely that the White House will get the full $22.5 billion in new Covid funding. The administration is aware of that, and feels comfortable where the negotiations stand. Congress is likely to pass a chunk of that money, to use a newly popular legislative term. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats are pressing hard for global vaccination funding, which amounts to roughly $5 billion of the White House request. 

The Ukraine funding is the key to passing the omnibus. Pelosi confirmed on Sunday night that there will be $10 billion in “humanitarian, military and economic support” for Ukraine in the package. “The Congress intends to enact this emergency funding this week as part of our emergency funding legislation,” Pelosi said in a “Dear Colleague” letter.

With the Ukrainian money in there, and a bipartisan deal on policy riders such as the Hyde Amendment, there could be strong support in the House for the omnibus. Lawmakers and aides were predicting 275 to 300 votes. Republicans don’t like omnibus bills, especially ones jammed through the House on short notice, but no one wants to be on the wrong side politically of Ukraine’s battle to stave off a bloody Russian invasion.

Now on the Senate side, the politics around the omnibus is all the more problematic, with the time crunch even more serious. The House may use a procedural move to send the omnibus to the Senate as a “message,” which would make it easier for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to get onto the bill. 

Yet as our friend Tony Romm at the Washington Post pointed out this weekend, there are several different groups of Senate Republicans seeking to slow down the omnibus package. In addition to a large block of Senate Republicans who want an accounting for previous Covid funding – led by Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) – there are two smaller, overlapping groups of GOP senators who want more time to study the bill. They argue that Ukraine aid should be dealt with separately (a strategy that both GOP and Democratic leaders reject), and oppose Covid vaccine mandates.

The Senate will take Monday and likely all of Tuesday dealing with a major U.S. Postal Service reform bill before turning to the omnibus on Wednesday (at the earliest). So by the time the Senate turns to the omnibus, the Covid funding will be solved. Yet Senate Republicans are likely to make Schumer and Democratic leaders work hard to pass this. 

We’ll have to see what Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other GOP leaders do here. Democrats need Republicans to pass the bill, it’s a question of how many they get. But you can be assured the process will be more tedious than it needs to be. Once everything is decided on, the endgame will happen quickly.

Now let’s get to the critical issue of barring Russian oil and energy imports. It’s going to have an enormous impact on the U.S. and world economy. President Joe Biden may be forced into some very difficult decisions.

The White House and several European nations are already talking about a possible Russian oil import ban, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet The Press.” The Japanese government is involved in these discussions too, Kyodo News reported on Sunday night.

Oil prices have soared as a result of the political turmoil, nearing $130 per barrel, according to Bloomberg. Average gasoline prices are up to $4 per gallon in the United States, and well over $5 per gallon in California. That’s a 70 cent-increase in just one month.

This is part of the reason that the White House didn’t want to implement this ban. Millions of barrels of oil per day could be affected, potentially pushing Europe – which is hugely dependent on Russian oil and gas –  into a recession. Natural gas prices are hitting record highs in Europe.

The United States is less dramatically affected, although the price surge will still hurt and may force changes to Biden’s energy and diplomatic policies. Republicans and some Democrats are pressing for more domestic oil and gas production. And U.S. officials made a trip to Venezuela on Saturday to discuss easing a ban on oil imports from that country, one of Russia’s most important allies in this hemisphere. This would help offset the loss of Russian oil in the U.S. market. But it’s not clear if this Venezuela agreement can happen.

Meanwhile, Pelosi made clear the Russia oil ban is going to be taken up by the House this week, and there seems to be solid support for the move in the Senate as well. So Congress is ready to press ahead despite the economic costs.

As we reported last week, new legislation from the Ways and Means Committee will also repeal “permanent normal trade relation” status for Russia and Belarus. Pelosi additionally said the United States may begin the process of trying to eject Russia from the World Trade Organization. The bill could be filed as soon as today and voted on tomorrow.

Here’s Pelosi: 

“In addition, the House is currently exploring strong legislation that will further isolate Russia from the global economy. Our bill would ban the import of Russian oil and energy products into the United States, repeal normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus, and take the first step to deny Russia access to the World Trade Organization. We would also empower the Executive branch to raise tariffs on Russian imports.”

There’s talk of attaching a “Global Magnitsky” provision to this new House bill, which would require sanctions of human rights violators, but it’s still unclear if that will happen.

MARCH EVENTS

Reminder: We have two events happening next week.

Join us virtually on Wednesday, March 16 at 3 p.m. for a conversation on President Biden’s proposed climate provisions with Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). RSVP here.

Then, join us in-person on Thursday, March 17 at 9 a.m. for our kickoff to a new series, Investing in America, with Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) about investing in small businesses coming out of the pandemic. RSVP here.

RETREAT FEVER

Lots of retreats this week, as House and Senate caucuses huddle

Three Days in Philadelphia. It sounds like it’s the name of a rom-com, but in actuality, it’s just the House Democrats’ annual legislative retreat. President Joe Biden will headline the event on Friday.

According to a letter that House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) sent out Sunday night, here’s who to expect: “White House National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy, Former Attorney General Eric Holder, Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler and Former Ambassador to the Russian Federation Michael McFaul” will also make appearances at the House Democratic retreat.

Both Senate Democrats and Republicans are expected to hold much smaller retreats this week, and they won’t leave Washington.

“This week at our Caucus retreat, we will spend a great deal of time going over the numerous proposals that Democrats have to lower costs for working families,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a “Dear Colleague” on Sunday night. “Whether it’s prescription drugs, semiconductor chips, or filling up the gas pump or the grocery bag – Democrats are coming up with solutions to address these issues.”

👀

Who we’re watching

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer: In the middle of legislative crunches, it’s Pelosi and Schumer who run the show. Pelosi has to maneuver the omnibus through the House, while Schumer will have to figure out how to split Republican opposition to get it through the Senate.

The “National Security” crew: One of the most important pockets of lawmakers in the coming weeks and months will be those heavily involved in national security and foreign policy as Russia’s war against Ukraine continues. We’re going to be keeping a close eye on people like House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.) and ranking Republican Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, both of whom traveled to the Poland-Ukraine border over the weekend. Also: Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Chris Coons (D-Del.).

📅

What we’re watching

→ Monday: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has a closed briefing on Ukraine at 6 p.m. with Victoria Nuland, the undersecretary of State for political affairs. 

→ Tuesday: The House Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing on public safety in the Covid era. New York City Mayor Eric Adams will testify. House Judiciary will also hold a hearing on the need for a Supreme Court code of ethics. Nuland will be back in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee for a Ukraine hearing.

→ Wednesday: The House Energy and Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on "Changing Times: Revisiting spring forward, fall back.” The House Appropriations Committee will hear from Gen. Tod Wolters, Commander, U.S European Command and NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, in a closed hearing.

→ Thursday: The Senate Intelligence Committee has a 10 a.m. hearing on worldwide threats with the leaders of the intelligence community, followed by a 1 p.m. closed hearing.

FRONTS

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will get his daily intelligence briefing.

11:35 a.m.: Vice President Kamala Harris will speak about the “American Rescue Plan and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law investments and the Administration’s actions to deliver clean transit, school buses and trucks, and clean air to America.”

2 p.m.: Jen Psaki will brief.

Week ahead: Tuesday: Biden will travel to Fort Worth to “speak with veterans, caregivers, and survivors about addressing the health effects of environmental exposures such as burn pits.” He will visit the VA and speak at “Tarrant County Resource Connection on expanding access to health care and benefits for veterans affected by environmental exposures during military service as part of his Unity Agenda for the Nation.”

Wednesday: Biden will meet with business leaders to talk about passing the chips bill. He will also speak at the Senate Democrats’ retreat at Howard University.

Thursday: Colombian President Iván Duque Márquez will be at the White House. Biden will also speak at the DNC winter meeting at the Washington Hilton.

Friday: Biden will travel to Philadelphia for the House Democrats’ retreat.

CLIP FILE

NYT 

→ “Arming Ukraine: 17,000 Anti-Tank Weapons in 6 Days and a Clandestine Cybercorps,” by David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt, Helene Cooper, Julian E. Barnes and Kenneth P. Vogel

→ “Russia Keeps Up Attack, Again Halting Evacuation of Ukrainian Port City,” by Andrew E. Kramer in Kyiv, Steven Erlanger in Brussels and Anton Troianovski in Istanbul

→ “Proud Band of Ukrainian Troops Holds Russian Assault at Bay — for Now,” by Michael Schwirtz in Mykolaiv, Ukraine

WaPo

→ “U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency,” by Shane Harris, Michael Birnbaum, John Hudson, Dan Lamothe and David L. Stern

→ “Amid the death and rubble, Ukrainian teams hunt for evidence of possible war crimes,” by Sudarsan Raghavan in Markhalivka, Ukraine

→ “Armed intruder at Joint Base Andrews is arrested,” by Martin Weil and Annie Linskey

CNN

→ “Trucker convoy laps Washington, DC, beltway to protest Covid-19 measures,” by Gabe Cohen and Dakin Andone

WSJ

→ “Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say,” by Gordon Lubold, Nancy A. Youssef and Alan Cullison

→ “​​Russia’s Military Chief Promised Quick Victory in Ukraine, but Now Faces a Potential Quagmire,” by Thomas Grove

→ “Russia Pummels Ukrainian Civilian Targets Ahead of Talks,” by Brett Forrest

AP

→ “Macron keeps an open line to Putin as war in Ukraine rages,” by Barbara Surk in Nice, France

→ “Republican ‘unforced errors’ threaten path to Senate control,” by Steve Peoples and Brian Slodysko

New Yorker

→ “Why Did Mark Meadows Register to Vote at an Address Where He Did Not Reside?” by Charles Bethea

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