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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

Congress is back! And we’re not being overly dramatic to say this is a huge week. Check that: This is a huge couple of weeks.

Between now and Memorial Day, President Joe Biden and congressional leaders in both parties will scramble to deal with infrastructure, taxes, police reform, gun control, a Jan. 6 commission, Capitol security, election reform and China, among other topics. House Republicans will anoint a new member of their leadership team while forcing out a strong anti-Donald Trump voice as early as this week. And Biden will have to decide soon on whether to reenter the nuclear accord with Iran, a move Republicans, some top Democrats and Israel oppose.

Wednesday is going to be an especially busy day. Biden will meet with the “Big Four” party leadership at the White House, the first such gathering of his presidency. It’s also the first time as president that he’s sat down with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). McCarthy is a close Trump ally who twice voted against certifying Biden’s Electoral College victory, so this should be fun. McCarthy has said repeatedly that Biden won’t return his phone calls. 

This session will be focused, in large part, on the American Jobs Plan and American Family Plan, Biden’s twin, $4 trillion-plus infrastructure and social welfare packages. McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) are adamantly opposed to Biden’s call to raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy to pay for his infrastructure proposal, as well as mandating “green” measures in the package. Senate Republicans, led by Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), have crafted their own $568 billion infrastructure plan paid for by user fees. Capito will lead a delegation of Senate Republicans meeting with Biden later in the week. More Senate Democrats will head down to the White House this week as well to talk about infrastructure.

McConnell was on Kentucky’s PBS station yesterday with Renee Shaw, and he gave a little more shape to his views on infrastructure. McConnell said the price range he is willing to accept is between $600 billion and $800 billion. He previously signaled that $600 billion was his ceiling.

“So here’s what I think will happen Renee, I think they’ll see if they can pass this thing by getting everybody in line, if they can’t, then we’re open to talk about infrastructure and how to pay for it,” McConnell said. “And the way to pay for infrastructure is through the gas tax that already exists, and … the gap between that and what we’re willing to spend here needs to be credibly paid for and the best way to pay for infrastructure is with the people who use it. Not revisiting the tax bill in a way that creates additional problems for the economy, which is gonna already have, based on what we’ve already done, two big problems: Inflation and the difficulty of getting people back to work.”

One note here: Listen to Republicans when they talk about Biden’s plan. They point out that just a small fraction is traditional “hard” infrastructure — roads, bridges, airports, ports, etc. But so far, they aren’t talking about the corporate tax increase or raising taxes on those making $400,000 or more annually because, in part, it’s popular to soak the rich.

Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are open to continuing to search for a bipartisan deal on infrastructure without setting any hard deadline for those talks, while Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wants to get moving more quickly, according to Democratic insiders. This dynamic is one to keep a close eye on.

Nothing is likely to happen until Biden’s full budget for FY 2021 is released, which is expected close to Memorial Day, these sources say. Yet sooner or later, Biden and the Democratic leadership on the Hill are going to have to make some tough choices — Do Republicans really want a bipartisan deal on infrastructure, and if so, how far do Democrats go on a compromise? Do Democrats break up an infrastructure package into two pieces, a first portion that can get bipartisan support, and a second piece that will have to be taken up under reconciliation? Can Democrats afford to alienate progressives on one bill in order to get them to support another? Would Republicans go for such a move knowing what the Democrats’ intentions are?

THE PERSONNEL DEPARTMENT

The other highlight of the week will be the now all-but-certain ouster of Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) as the House Republican Conference chair and her replacement by Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). Remember, the House doesn’t come in until Tuesday night, and the Cheney drama is expected to unfold at a GOP Conference meeting the next day. Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) is expected to file a motion to remove Cheney.

How this plays out matters. We’re wondering how Cheney is treated by her colleagues this week. Does Cheney force a recorded vote on the motion to remove her as conference chair? Unclear. It seems pointless to force a vote, but Cheney may do it anyway as a show of defiance. Remember: This will be in a closed Republican Party meeting, and the vote is almost certain to be conducted by secret ballot. How much support will she get?  Will she stay in Congress and run for reelection? Cheney says yes, but we’ll have to see. What’s her future in the party? Cheney is clearly one of the most important anti-Trump Republicans, but what’s the future in that?

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy intends to announce the date of the election to replace Cheney within the next day. We’re told the contest will either be late this week or early next week. There’s a palpable “Let’s-not-delay-the-inevitable” sense among senior House Republicans. They believe Cheney will lose, and Stefanik will win. There’s no one challenging Stefanik right now.

This is a big moment for McCarthy. Don’t read too much into the “Trump may dump McCarthy if Republicans win the majority” talk. If Republicans win the House in Nov. 2022, McCarthy will be speaker. Trump likes backing winners, so he’ll back McCarthy. McCarthy will have raised tens of millions of dollars for rank-and-file Republicans. He’ll have recruited candidates that give Republicans the majority, and he’ll have appeared at hundreds of events for his colleagues across the country. He will simply have too many chits piled up for him to be pushed aside for anyone else. And if McCarthy can’t be speaker, his supporters can make sure no other potential replacement could either. So it will be McCarthy.

We did some reporting over the weekend about Stefanik’s whip operation, and here’s what we learned.

She has more than 30 whips from the Freedom Caucus, the Republican Study Committee, the Tuesday Group, senior members of the Appropriations Committee, freshmen supporters and boosters from key big states such as Texas and Florida.

Her whips include two committee ranking members: Rep. Patrick McHenry (N.C.), on Financial Services, and Rep. Devin Nunes, on Intelligence. Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas), who has been sharply critical of Cheney, is whipping for Stefanik. Also: Reps. Pete Stauber (Minn.), Claudia Tenney (N.Y.) and Guy Reschenthaler (Pa.).

Stefanik moved extraordinarily quickly in seeking the No. 3 leadership slot. She started making calls early last week and told people she was interested if Cheney was knocked off. Stefanik locked down two-thirds of the 212-person Republican Conference in no time, a source told us. Important to remember her: The election is moving swiftly because Stefanik moved quickly. The Republicans that are complaining about Stefanik’s swift ascent didn’t jump in quickly enough. Stefanik set the clock, and now controls the election on her terms. 

Also important to remember: Stefanik had a built-in advantage. She’s been on House Minority Whip Steve Scalise’s (R-La.) whip team since 2015, is a deputy whip, chaired NRCC recruitment in 2018 and set up her women-focused EPAC in 2020. Plus, she serves on three committees — Education and Labor, Intelligence and HASC — so all of this gives her a massive base from which to run an election.

THE LEGISLATIVE AGENDA

There are a number of other issues we are watching closely this week:

→ Security supplemental: We’re hearing there’s been some progress on this front. House Democrats had been floating a $2.1 billion package. That’s likely to be scaled back, perhaps significantly. Republicans have complained about a $400 million “slush fund” for new fencing, but this can be resolved with additional transparency on how the money will be spent. There’s questions about the “rapid reaction force” — the composition, is this military or police officers? Where is it based? How’s it activated? This needs to be dealt with as well. Yet it’s clear there’s movement on this front, and there could be a House vote on the funding as early as next week.

We’re told there may be a vote on Pelosi’s Jan. 6 commission as well, but this would be separate from the funding package. Republicans will oppose any bill that has the Jan. 6 commission provision included — at least how it’s currently structured — so the only way to get the additional security money through is a separate vote.

→ Police reform: We were very interested to hear House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. Clyburn had this to say about “qualified immunity,” a huge issue in the debate over police reform: “If you don’t get qualified immunity now, then we’ll come back and try to get it later, but I don’t want to see us throw out a good bill because we can’t get a perfect bill."

This could be a key moment. If Democrats take a step back on qualified immunity — which so far they’ve been unwilling to do —  it could break the logjam on this bill. But progressives and police reform advocates aren’t going to like it. The next few days may prove critical here.  

→ Election reform: The Senate Rules Committee is going to mark up S. 1, the “For The People” Act, on Tuesday. Republicans loathe this election reform bill and have already vowed to block it; McConnell labeled it a “power grab” by Democrats. Democrats, for their part, are furious with GOP efforts to change state voting laws following Trump’s defeat, as has happened in Georgia and Florida. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Rules chair, has introduced a manager’s amendment incorporating some changes to the bill. There’s going to be fireworks here.

→ China: The Senate Commerce Committee on Wednesday will mark up the “Endless Frontier Act,” the bipartisan proposal by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)  and Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.). Their plan is to pour tens of billions of dollars into the National Science Foundation to help remake U.S. advanced research and manufacturing efforts in a bid to counter China. Schumer may combine it with a proposed huge aid package for U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, as well as a bill by Sens. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and Jim Risch (R-Idaho) to reset U.S.-China relations. But even if this somehow gets through the Senate — a huge “if” — it still has to make it through Pelosi’s House, and she has a very long record on China issues. Lots to watch here.

→ Other highlights: AG Merrick Garland and DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas will appear before the Senate Appropriations panel on Wednesday to discuss “Domestic violent extremism in America,” while Mayorkas will testify Thursday at Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on unaccompanied minors at the southern border.

STATE OF THE ART

NRSC fundraises off defender card

Ya can’t make it up. The NRSC is sending fundraising emails about getting a Trump “Loyalty” card. The Senate Republican leader — Mitch McConnell — barely says former president Donald Trump’s name!

JOB MOVES

→ Lauren French is joining Rep. Adam Schiff’s (D-Calif.) office and the House Intelligence Committee as a senior adviser and communications director. French worked at the House Democratic Caucus and then-Rep. Ben Ray Lujan’s (D-N.M.) leadership office and Senate campaign. She will work on expanding Schiff’s public-facing portfolio in the House and national stage.

→ Lacy Clay, a Democrat who represented Missouri in the House for 20 years, is joining the law firm Pillsbury’s public policy team as a senior adviser.

MOMENTS

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his intelligence briefing.

10:30 a.m.: Biden will speak with NATO’s eastern flank allies.

12 p.m.: White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki will brief. … VP Kamala Harris will have lunch with U.N. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield in the Ward Room. 

1:15 p.m.: Biden will speak about the economy. Harris will attend. 

This week: Tuesday: Biden will meet virtually with governors about Covid-19 vaccination programs. Wednesday: Biden will meet with the Big Four. Thursday: Biden will meet with Sens. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.).

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Biden Plans an Order to Strengthen Cyberdefenses. Will It Be Enough?” by David Sanger, Nicole Perlroth and Julian Barnes

→ “As Scrutiny of Cryptocurrency Grows, the Industry Turns to K Street,” by Eric Lipton

→ News Analysis: “U.S. and Iran Want to Restore the Nuclear Deal. They Disagree Deeply on What That Means,” by Steven Erlanger and David Sanger: “[A]fter five weeks of shadow boxing in Vienna hotel rooms — where the two sides pass notes through European intermediaries — it has become clear that the old deal, strictly defined, does not work for either of them anymore, at least in the long run.

“The Iranians are demanding that they be allowed to keep the advanced nuclear-fuel production equipment they installed after Mr. Trump abandoned the pact, and integration with the world financial system beyond what they achieved under the 2015 agreement.

“The Biden administration, for its part, says that restoring the old deal is just a steppingstone. It must be followed immediately by an agreement on limiting missiles and support of terrorism — and making it impossible for Iran to produce enough fuel for a bomb for decades. The Iranians say no way.

“Now, as negotiators engage again in Vienna, where a new round of talks began on Friday, the Biden administration finds itself at a crucial decision point. Restoring the 2015 accord, with all its flaws, seems doable, interviews with European, Iranian and American officials suggest. But getting what Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has called a ‘longer and stronger’ accord — one that stops Iran from amassing nuclear material for generations, halts its missile tests and ends support of terrorist groups — looks as far away as ever.”

WaPo

→ “The making of a myth: Russell J. Ramsland Jr. sold everything from Tex-Mex food to light-therapy technology. Then he sold the story that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump,” by Emma Brown, Aaron C. Davis, Jon Swaine and Josh Dawsey, with an Addison, Texas, dateline

→ “‘Where is the plan?’: Biden pressed on global vaccine strategy,” by Dan Diamond and Tyler Pager

AP

→ “Capitol rioters make questionable claims about police,” by Jacques Billeaud

→ “Inside Arizona’s election audit, GOP fraud fantasies live on,” by Jonathan J. Cooper and Bob Christie in Phoenix

LAT

→ “Patagonia shows corporate activism is simpler than it looks,” by Andrea Chang

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