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PRESENTED BY

BY JOHN BRESNAHAN, ANNA PALMER AND JAKE SHERMAN

THE TOP

Happy Thursday. We’d like to introduce you to The Canvass.

The Canvass is a Punchbowl News and Locust Street Group tracking poll of senior Capitol Hill aides. 

Why are we launching this new product? Members of Congress are the ones with the election certificates, but, in many cases, their aides hold outsized power. Senior staffers are the gatekeepers and, in many cases, the decision makers. They’re not adequately represented in the daily reporting on what happens inside the Capitol and why.

So we partnered with the independent polling firm Locust Street Group to conduct this regular, anonymous survey. We want to give Punchbowl News readers a unique insight into the thinking of these key congressional aides. 

The Canvass is going to be a frequent feature. Our plan is to release top-line data to our morning readers, and in-depth analysis to our premium subscribers. 

OK, let’s get to it. 

→ Republicans will win the House: 66% of respondents say Republicans will win control of the House in 2022. More than one-third of Democrats — 36% — say the GOP will end the four-year run of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s majority.

→ Democrats will keep the Senate: 66% of respondents overall say Democrats will control the Senate in 2023. Republicans are split 50-50 on who they think will hold the Senate majority. 82% of Democrats say they’ll keep control of the chamber, and 18% believe they’ll lose it.

→ What big issues could move? We asked about the most likely legislation to make it through the 117th Congress. 74% said infrastructure, 48% said taxes and 42% said legislation dealing with prescription drug costs. 

→ Areas of consensus: The top two issues where both parties agree are lowering prescription drug costs and further regulating technology companies.

→ What will make it into an infrastructure bill? So-called “hard” infrastructure is clearly favored. 92% of respondents say roads and bridges, 91% say high-speed broadband, 84% say airport money and 81% say water infrastructure.

We’re going to dig much, much deeper into our new data in the midday and PM editions. We have an entire survey that we’re going to unveil beginning in the Midday edition.

Here are some questions we polled: Which media outlet is most trusted on Capitol Hill? Who will be the next speaker in both parties? Who will be the next Republican and Democratic leader of the Senate? How safe do you feel working in the Capitol? The best way to pay for an infrastructure bill, the likelihood of a wide variety of legislative proposals and much, much more.

Do subscribe

Wanna get in on the action? If you are a chief of staff, LD, comms director, staff director or press secretary, sign up here to be the first to weigh in anonymously for next month’s survey.

CAPITOL SECURITY

News: Dems have circulated security proposal, but a deal is far off

Democratic appropriators have shared their roughly $2 billion proposal for additional security funding for the Capitol complex — including hundreds of millions of dollars for new fencing and barriers — with the “four corners” of the leadership in both chambers. A deal remains far off at this point, but the negotiations seem to be gaining some momentum, at least as staffers begin to hash out lingering issues.

The issue of new security funding has become bogged down in a partisan dispute over whether to create a “9/11 type commission” to look into what led to the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. There are disagreements as well over how much security the Capitol complex needs, and how much public access to provide.

The House Administration Committee will hold two hearings next week on the Jan. 6 attack, with officials from the U.S. Capitol Police and the Architect of the Capitol set to testify on internal breakdowns and policy failures that day.

Both sides agree broadly with the recommendation from retired Army General Russel Honore that hundreds of new U.S. Capitol Police officers should be hired, a move that will bolster a force under tremendous stress since the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. The April 2 death of USCP Officer Billy Evans — killed when a man drove his car into two officers manning a security checkpoint — has added new urgency to the debate. There’s support as well for a “rapid reaction force” to back up the U.S. Capitol Police in the event of an emergency.

And party leaders in both chambers broadly believe that the new funding package should remain clean, not allowing it to turn into a catch-all for other lawmakers’ priorities. 

But the fencing issue — how much new fencing there should be, what it should look like, and whether it’s “retractable” or permanent — remains a critical challenge. There’s currently a temporary security fence around the Capitol with no clear timetable on when or if it will be removed. A number of lawmakers, especially Democrats, would like the fence to remain in place, while their GOP colleagues want it gone or scaled down. In addition to that, hundreds of National Guard troops are still in place backing up the Capitol Police, although their numbers have been slowly reduced.

Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, has called for a bipartisan commission to study proposals on fencing and security barriers to give leaders a clearer idea of what a new security fence would look like, but that idea doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Republicans remain concerned about turning the Capitol into a “fortress” like the White House, seeing that as a problem for the national legislature.

LEADERSHIP NOTEBOOK

→ It’s kind of amazing when you think about this: There could be an empty seat at the House GOP leadership table next week and only one person — Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York — is running. Not a single other Republican has thrown their hat in the ring. It’s an open secret in GOP circles that Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana and Mike Johnson of Louisiana want to get into leadership. Yet, they aren’t running. Congress is filled with members who didn’t run in races they should’ve.

→ Team Stefanik says it feels good about its position, and believes it has the votes to win the race if Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is booted, as expected.

→ Stefanik’s district is really a microcosm of the GOP in the Trump era. In 2012, it went for Barack Obama by six points. In 2016, Donald Trump won by 14 and 2020, Trump won by 11. 

N.Y. Post: “Jim Jordan: ‘The votes are there’ to oust Liz Cheney from House GOP post,” by Samuel Chamberlin: “Jordan, the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee, told ‘Fox News Primetime’ that ‘the votes are there’ to remove Cheney as House Republican Conference chair and added that such a vote ‘will happen, most likely, next Wednesday.’ … 

“‘You can’t have a Republican conference chair reciting Democrat talking points,’ Jordan said of Cheney. ‘You can’t have a Republican conference chair taking a position that 90 percent of the party disagrees with, and you can’t have a Republican party chair consistently speaking out against the individual who 74 million Americans voted for.’” 

WaPo’s Paul Kane: “From Paul Ryan acolyte to Trump disciple: Elise Stefanik sets out to replace Liz Cheney in GOP leadership”

WSJ’s Kristina Peterson: “‘There’s never been any required loyalty test for Liz or anyone else to wake up every morning and praise Donald Trump, but there’s no reason to give him the middle finger every day and create a distraction when the rest of us are trying to win back the majority,’ said Rep. Lance Gooden (R., Texas).”

ICYMI: WaPo: “Opinion: Liz Cheney: The GOP is at a turning point. History is watching us.”

NYT columnist Charles Blow: “Liz Cheney, We Have a Memory. You’re No Hero.”

NYT GIVES HOUSE LEADERSHIP ABOVE-THE-FOLD TREATMENT

The story is by Nick Fandos and Catie Edmondson.

MOMENTS (ALL TIMES EASTERN)

9:30 a.m.: President Joe Biden will receive his daily intelligence briefing.

10:10 a.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Andrews, where he will fly to Lake Charles, La. Karine Jean-Pierre will gaggle en route. 

2:25 p.m.: Biden will speak about the American Jobs Plan near the Calcasieu River Bridge.

3:30 p.m.: Biden will leave Lake Charles for New Orleans.

5:20 p.m.: Biden will tour the Carrollton Water Plan.

6:40 p.m.: Biden will leave New Orleans for D.C..

9:05 p.m.: Biden is scheduled back to the White House.

Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will travel to Memphis today with Labor Secretary Marty Walsh.

CLIP FILE

NYT

→ “Biden Leans Into Plans to Tax the Rich,” by Jim Tankersley and Annie Karni

→ “Blinken, on Ukraine Trip, Will Offer Support on Russia but Also Pressure on Corruption,” by Michael Crowley and Andrew Kramer in London

WaPo

→ “Democrats tweak marquee voting bill as they seek path out of Senate,” by Mike DeBonis

→ “Observers report ballots and laptop computers have been left unattended in Arizona recount, according to secretary of state,” by Rosalind S. Helderman

WSJ

→ “Peloton Recalls All Treadmills as CEO Apologizes,” by Sharon Terlep and Allison Prang

AP

→ “Republicans promote pandemic relief they voted against,” by Steve Peoples

Buffalo News

→ “Joe Slade White, 71, longtime adviser to President Biden, award-winning Democratic political consultant,” by Dale Anderson

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Editorial photos provided by Getty Images