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Happy Tuesday morning. Welcome to a special edition of The Tally, Punchbowl News’ campaign coverage.
This election season is morphing into “The Tale of Two Midterms.”
If you talk to Democrats, there has been a sea-change in the nation’s political landscape. Buoyed by a stretch of legislative wins in Congress and a public backlash after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Democrats feel reinvigorated. They point to upset special election victories in Alaska and New York in August as evidence of the Democratic resurgence.
Democrats retain a big lead in fundraising, especially online. After being down in the generic ballot for most of this cycle, they’re either tied or leading in recent surveys. Even President Joe Biden’s poll numbers are slowly improving, a major plus for the party.
But if you listen to Republicans, they claim the Democrats’ polling bump has been negligible and the GOP is still well-equipped to flip both the House and Senate — even if 2022 isn’t the “big red wave” many analysts were predicting. As for the special elections, Republican strategists say those are isolated incidents that won’t be repeated in November. Inflation is also still running hot.
There are 56 days until Election Day and the post-Labor Day crunch is upon us. It’s become clear that Democrats, who once braced for big losses in both chambers, are now feeling emboldened about their chances of keeping their razor-thin Senate majority. But it’s basically a jump ball at this point for which side wins — and we may not know that answer until December.
The truth of the matter likely lies somewhere in the middle. A massive red wave is unlikely. But Republicans are heavily favored to win the House majority and are still in an excellent position to win the Senate too. Plus, polling remains inconsistent and top analysts are sounding the alarm that the data could be — again — overestimating Democratic candidates.
So sit back and enjoy our reporting today on the state of the election eight weeks out. We have data on how influential GOP senators are fundraising to flip the Senate, a look at how vulnerable Senate Democrats are handling Biden and a preview of a key primary day in New Hampshire.
— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
PRESENTED BY AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY CANCER ACTION NETWORK
From diagnosed…to survivor. Let’s end cancer as we know it.
Robust funding for groundbreaking research has driven declines in cancer death rates.
Congress, let’s build on that proven progress and prioritize sustained funding increases for the NIH and NCI.
GRANITE STATE
What to watch for on a crucial primary day in New Hampshire
![](https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Tally-91322-3-20220913-102229am.png)
Republican voters in New Hampshire today will determine the final piece of the Senate battleground puzzle when they decide Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan’s (N.H.) general election opponent.
The GOP Senate primary is a contest between retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc and state Senate President Chuck Morse. Morse has been endorsed by moderate GOP Gov. Chris Sununu and is receiving backing from groups aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Bolduc, although lacking an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, is more closely aligned with the right wing of the party and is a firm election denier.
The race between Bolduc and Morse mirrors national trends in 2022 GOP primaries between establishment and MAGA candidates. More often than not, the MAGA candidates have triumphed in high-profile Senate primaries. See Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, J.D. Vance in Ohio and Rep. Ted Budd in North Carolina as proof of that.
National Republicans tried to recruit Sununu, the state’s popular multi-term governor, to run for Senate. But Sununu publicly rebuffed the party leadership, decrying the gridlock in D.C. and declaring he could have a bigger impact in his job as governor.
New Hampshire Democrats believe both Morse and Bolduc are flawed general election candidates because of their anti-abortion stances. In a state known for its pro-choice values, Hassan has made abortion rights a central issue of her campaign following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in June.
→ | Another key race to watch Tuesday: Republicans Matt Mowers and Karoline Leavitt are battling it out in the primary for New Hampshire’s 1st District. The winner will take on Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), a vulnerable Frontliner. |
Mowers is endorsed by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Minority Whip Steve Scalise and Republican Study Committee Chair Jim Banks. He’s also gotten backing from the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with the House GOP leadership. Leavitt has the endorsement of her former boss — House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik — and is accusing the party establishment of smearing her campaign.
— Max Cohen
THE MONEY GAME
How the ‘Three Johns’ are stepping up their fundraising game
The National Republican Senatorial Committee’s cash crunch has been well documented – as has the accompanying feud between its chair, Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.), and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Here’s how the “Three Johns” — the successors vying to one day replace McConnell — are using their financial prowess to help flip the Senate.
![](https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Tally-91322-4-20220913-102232am.png)
This cycle, Cornyn has raised more than $17 million for Senate candidates to date. When the cycle is over, his team expects the tally to exceed $20 million.
Cornyn launched a joint fundraising committee — the Cornyn Victory Committee — in early 2021 that has raised $10.3 million. That money has gone to vulnerable incumbents and to GOP challengers in Alabama, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia.
“I’m the second largest fundraiser for the senatorial committee,” Cornyn told us. “When Blake Masters wins, or Ted Budd or J.D. Vance, I call them up and I say, ‘Congratulations. By the way, I’ve got a check for you.’ And I help them get started in the general election.”
In addition to the $10.3 million raised through his joint fundraising committee, Cornyn has chipped in another $6.8 million to the NRSC and directly to incumbents and candidates.
“I was chairman of the senatorial committee for two cycles and, of course, was able to develop a pretty good network of donors there,” Cornyn said. “And I’ve stayed in touch with all of them. Mainly in Texas, but in New York and other places, too. And this is something that I’m willing to do to help us get back in the majority.”
![](https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Tally-91322-5-20220913-102232am.png)
Barrasso, the current chair of the Senate GOP conference, has hosted fundraisers in Wyoming and D.C. to benefit Republican candidates in tough races this year.
In August, Barrasso tapped into the wealthy donor world of Jackson Hole, Wyo., hosting a fundraiser for Georgia Republican Herschel Walker and Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt. The event raised nearly $250,000. Barrasso also hosted a D.C. fundraiser for Ohio candidate J.D. Vance.
Currently, Barrasso is organizing donations from his biggest Wyoming donors to benefit challengers like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Joe O’Dea in Colorado.
Barrasso also recently contributed $250,000 to the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund.
“Every Republican senator is committed to taking back the majority,” Barrasso told us. “Every Republican candidate is benefitting from our unified focus on holding Democrats accountable for failing America.”
![](https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Tally-91322-6-20220913-102233am.png)
Thune is the only John up for reelection this cycle. Despite crossing former President Donald Trump following the insurrection, Thune faced no serious primary challenge and is expected to coast to reelection in the Mount Rushmore State.
However, Thune’s own electoral duties have precluded his ability to be as publicly active in helping flip the majority. The optics of Thune showing up to campaign or fundraise in Georgia or Nevada while facing his own election in South Dakota are less than ideal.
Still, Thune has contributed by hosting events for candidates in D.C.
“We’re raising money, namely. The best thing you can do for candidates is help them get our dollars,” Thune told us. “So we’re doing events. We got a lot of them coming [to D.C.] in the next couple of weeks.”
His victory committee — Friends Of John Thune — has $16.9 million on hand as of June 30. And he’s expected to easily win re-election in November, leaving some to wonder where he’ll put all that money in the meantime. Here’s Thune’s response when we asked him if he was considering cutting a big check to the NRSC, as he has done in past years:
“We’re making those assessments right now about where to get the best return for the dollar and help the candidates the most.”
— John Bresnahan and Max Cohen
ATTN 1600 PENN.
Vulnerable Senate Dems maintaining their distance from White House
![](https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Tally-91322-8-20220913-102234am.png)
For months, we’ve been tracking whether vulnerable Democrats want President Joe Biden to campaign with them ahead of the midterms. When we asked endangered Senate Democrats in June if they wanted Biden to appear in their battleground states, they largely refused to engage.
After a summer of big legislative wins for the White House — including the sweeping $740 billion Inflation Reduction Act, the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act and the PACT Act — we wondered if they’d warmed to a presidential campaign visit.
The short answer: Not really.
The most at-risk Senate Democrats still wouldn’t directly answer whether they wanted Biden to campaign with them.
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) told us in June he was focused on delivering for Georgians, not how the White House could support his reelection bid. Last week, Warnock told us the Biden campaign question was “something for the pundits to focus on.”
And here’s Warnock’s response when we asked if he was touting the IRA in the Peach State:
“I’m glad we got [the IRA] over the finish line. And today I entered the Taxing Big Oil Profiteers Act, which will hold the oil and gas companies accountable for the price gouging we’re seeing in the midst of a pandemic.”
When we asked Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) about a Biden visit, the former Navy pilot and astronaut deflected by saying he would “welcome anybody to come to Arizona.”
Kelly did hail the CHIPS Act and the prescription drug pricing reform in the IRA.
“I’m not a political analysis person, but I would say I’ve met a lot of seniors that can’t afford their prescription drugs.
“This addresses that problem in a big way. So just from a standpoint of our senior population being healthy and being able to afford the medication they need, it’s a very positive thing.”
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) was the endangered incumbent most open to Biden’s involvement. “The president of the United States is always welcome in New Hampshire,” Hassan told us.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) replied in a similar manner to NBC before quickly asserting where her “focus” is: “The POTUS is always welcome in my state, but my focus right now is on Nevada, first and foremost.”
Cortez Masto is also praising the IRA on the trail, arguing the package will “create jobs” and “lower costs for Nevadans.”
→ | To give a sense of how other Democrats are treating Biden, Ohio Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan recently wouldn’t even say if he wanted Biden to run again. Notably, Ryan delivered that vote of confidence when appearing alongside Biden at an unveiling of a new Intel factory in Ohio. |
— Max Cohen, Heather Caygle, Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
AD SPENDING
Abortion messaging dominates ad spending
We asked our friends at AdImpact to analyze what issues are being spent on the most when it comes to campaign ads. Abortion is by far the leading issue from the day the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade to the present.
![](https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Tally-91322-9-20220913-102237am.png)
On the top spender list, the Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund is leading the way with nearly $200 million spent and reserved up to Election Day.
![](https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Tally-91322-10-20220913-102237am.png)
— Max Cohen
PRESENTED BY AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY CANCER ACTION NETWORK
From diagnosed…to survivor. Let’s end cancer as we know it.
![](https://punchbowl.news/wp-content/uploads/The-Tally-91322-11-20220913-102238am.jpg)
Robust funding for groundbreaking research has driven declines in cancer death rates.
Congress, let’s build on that proven progress and prioritize sustained funding increases for the NIH and NCI.
Editorial photos provided by Getty Images
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