California Democrats’ proposed counter to GOP gerrymandering in Texas is here.
Now, Gov. Gavin Newsom and the legislature have less than three months to get their proposal on the ballot and convince California voters to approve it. That won’t be easy.
The plan, released Friday evening, looks to reduce Republicans to just four of the state’s 52 districts. As we reported, Democrats are hoping to net five new districts, but they aren’t all going to be easy flips. Three of those seats, held by GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley and Ken Calvert, were seats former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 10 points or more.
The other two potential pickups could be highly competitive. Harris won Republican Rep. Darrell Issa’s district by three points and President Donald Trump narrowly carried GOP Rep. David Valadao’s district.
The plan shored up several Democratic incumbents but left Reps. Adam Gray and Derek Tran in purple seats.
Some Republicans privately acknowledged the map wasn’t as bad as they expected because it left them several battlegrounds to compete in.
But remember, California voters have to OK this Democratic plan. This map is certainly gerrymandered, yet proponents say it divides fewer cities and is more compact than the current one. A more brazen gerrymander than this, which could look messier and disturb more communities of interest, could have a harder time getting voter approval.
The timeline. The map’s rollout was rocky, partly because the proposal leaked shortly before Democratic legislators formally released it. Now, the California legislature has until Aug. 22 to approve sending the new map to voters in a November election.
We’ll have more analysis on the district data later this week. For now, let’s look at some potential Democrats who could run in the new seats.
The recruits. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera said in a statement he plans to continue representing Sacramento, which could mean running in California’s proposed new 3rd District, currently held by Kiley, or in the new 6th District, which Bera currently holds.
The new 3rd District has some of Bera’s current territory and some turf that he represented before the last redistricting.
Kermit Jones, a veteran and physician who ran against Kiley in 2022, could run there again or in Bera’s neighboring 6th District if Bera runs in the 3rd. Others who could run for a Sacramento-area seat include: state Sen. Angelique Ashby, Sacramento County Sheriff Jim Cooper and Sacramento Mayor Kevin McCarty.
Several former Democratic nominees from past cycles are eyeing comeback bids.
Audrey Denney, the 2018 and 2020 challenger to LaMalfa, said her home of Chico is in the new 1st District and she plans to run if the maps are approved. Another name to watch: California Senate President Pro Tempore Mike McGuire.
Ammar Campa-Najjar, who ran against Issa in 2020, said he is considering a rematch there. Campa-Najjar also ran against former Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) in 2018. Will Rollins, who ran twice against Calvert, could run against Issa, whose new district would take Palm Springs from Calvert.
And the new map creates a majority Latino district in the Los Angeles area. Hilda Solis, a former member and Labor secretary under the Obama administration, is interested in running there, according to multiple sources tracking recruitment.
