South Texas is home to some of Republicans’ best chances to pick up a House seat in 2026. But it also may host one of their most problematic primaries.
A crowd of Republicans is lining up to challenge Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar for his Laredo-based district. Party strategists are closely watching what could become a messy four-way pileup. It could get even more troublesome as Republicans in Texas weigh a mid-decade redistricting push that would target Cuellar.
In a sign of just how quickly the region is trending from blue to red, two of the Republican candidates eyeing bids switched from being Democrats in recent years.
One of them is Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, who switched parties on Fox & Friends last December and has been taking steps toward a campaign. State Rep. Ryan Guillen, who announced he was switching parties in 2021, is also considering a run. At age 24, Guillen was one of the youngest members ever elected to the Texas legislature. Guillen lives in and represents Starr County.
Who Republicans don’t want: There’s former Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas), who switched districts after losing twice to Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in a nearby seat. Few Republicans are eager to see her try again against Cuellar.
Nor do they want Jay Furman, the failed 2024 nominee who is running again. Furman has minimal ties to the district and admitted last cycle that he only moved there to challenge Cuellar.
For many years, the biggest threat to Cuellar, a conservative Democrat, came from a primary challenge. Cuellar nearly lost renomination in 2020. But the political lean of the region shifted as President Donald Trump surged in popularity between 2020 and 2024. Stalwart Democratic counties swung hard toward Trump, turned off by Democrats’ stances on social issues.
The Cuellar family is an institution in the Laredo community. The Texas Democrat’s brother is a sheriff and his sister was the tax assessor-collector. But Cuellar is vulnerable in 2026.
Looking ahead: Cuellar was indicted last year on federal bribery and corruption charges, though he has maintained his innocence. A federal judge recently denied Cuellar’s request to move his trial – expected to begin later this year – from Houston to Laredo.
Cuellar’s district moved a whopping 14 points to the right at the presidential level in November 2024. Former President Joe Biden won it by 7 points in 2020. But Trump carried it by 7 points in 2024, leaving Cuellar on perilous political footing.
The potential mid-decade redistricting push shows that Republicans are betting big on Texas to save their House majority. And unless Cuellar switches parties — or resigns — Republicans will need a top-tier recruit to oust him. A prolonged primary is not ideal.
Cuellar claims he isn’t worried.
“It really doesn’t matter to me,” Cuellar said when asked about the field preparing to take him on.
