The trend of younger Democrats primarying older House incumbents in safe states has dominated headlines in recent weeks. But there are far more consequential competitive Democratic primaries emerging in battleground seats where the majority will be won or lost.
In a growing number of seats represented by vulnerable House Republicans, multiple legitimate Democratic contenders are vying for the chance to advance to the general election. These crowded primaries aren’t inherently negative, with the glut of candidates revealing how many Democratic contenders are optimistic that 2026 may be a boon year for the party thanks to President Donald Trump.
But messy intra-party contests do have the potential to derail Democratic efforts to flip the House. And no candidate wants to spend precious money before the general election.
Just take the example of Arizona’s 1st District in 2024. The top four candidates were separated by just five percentage points in the Democratic primary. The tight margins and crowded field meant Democrats weren’t left with their strongest candidate to take down Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), who won reelection.
But a bitter primary in Oregon’s 5th District between Democrats Janelle Bynum and Jamie McLeod-Skinner didn’t stop Bynum from knocking off a GOP incumbent in 2024.
Let’s take a look at the burgeoning primary list.
Colorado’s 8th District, currently represented by Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Colo.): State Rep. Manny Rutinel, who raised an impressive $1.1 million in Q1, is facing off against former Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.). Caraveo lost to Evans in November.
California’s 40th District, represented by Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.): Art gallery owner Esther Kim Varet, who raised $1 million in Q1, is running alongside former school board member Christina Gagnier.
New York’s 17th District, Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-N.Y.) seat: Local legislator Beth Davidson, veteran Cait Conley, former television reporter Mike Sacks and nonprofit executive Jessica Reinmann are all vying for a chance to unseat Lawler.
New Jersey’s 7th District, represented by Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.): Businessman Brian Varela, local politician Greg Vartan, former SBA leader Michael Roth and Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett are all running.
Wisconsin’s 3rd District, represented by Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.): The 2024 Democratic candidate Rebecca Cooke will face off against Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge. Cooke posted a $1 million first quarter.
Arizona’s 1st District, represented by Schweikert: 2024 candidate Amish Shah is running again, alongside his 2024 primary opponent Marlene Galán-Woods and entrepreneur Jonathan Treble.
Michigan’s 10th District, in the seat that will be vacated by Rep. John James’ (R-Mich.) gubernatorial run: Former Pontiac, Mich. Mayor Tim Greimel is facing off against former prosecutor Christina Hines.
California’s 22nd District, represented by Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.): Former state Rep. Rudy Salas, who ran against Valadao in the last two cycles, has filed to run again but hasn’t done much campaigning. Randy Villegas, a local school board trustee, is also running. Local reporting has suggested Democrats are also trying to recruit Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains to run.
California’s 41st District, represented by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.): Former OneRepublic bassist Tim Myers launched his bid for the seat on Thursday, joining a crowded list of lesser-known candidates vying to take on Calvert. Will Rollins, who raised tons of cash in two unsuccessful runs against Calvert, isn’t running again.
