If Republicans aren’t scared by what happened Tuesday night, they should be.
One year after President Donald Trump and Republicans won the White House, Congress and every battleground state, Democrats struck back by painting Virginia and New Jersey blue Tuesday night, shifting the map leftward in county after county.
Former Virginia Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) won the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey. The pair were elected to the House in the gigantic Democratic class of 2018.
Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Muslim democratic socialist, was elected mayor of New York City. Trump endorsed former Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo at the 11th hour, but it wasn’t nearly enough. Mamdani has already become a focal point of GOP attacks against Democratic candidates and incumbents. Here’s how the NRSC is trying to tie Mamdani to Democrats running in battleground states.
Democrats successfully defended three Pennsylvania Supreme Court justices, a big win for Gov. Josh Shapiro that protects the state’s congressional map.
And in California, voters overwhelmingly approved Prop 50, which will allow Democrats in the state legislature to redraw congressional maps to give themselves up to five new seats. This is a huge victory for Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, as well as the biggest plus for House Democrats in the national redistricting struggle set off by Trump.
Big picture. This was a Democratic romp in the midst of a national crisis over the now record 36-day government shutdown. It should send a stark message to Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune that the national tide has shifted decisively from last year’s Republican victories.
Trump said this on Truth Social: “TRUMP WASN’T ON THE BALLOT, AND SHUTDOWN, WERE THE TWO REASONS THAT REPUBLICANS LOST ELECTIONS TONIGHT,” according to Pollsters.” In fact, Trump will never be on the ballot again.
But the biggest challenge for Republicans is that Trump’s poll numbers have fallen dramatically, especially on the economy. Trump wants to be at the center of the national conversation all the time, turning every race into a national referendum. Yet the issue now is whether that’s good for Republicans up and down the ballot.
Trump will meet with Senate Republicans this morning and then fly to Florida afterwards.
The immediate questions to consider are the following:
1) Will Democrats’ victories hasten the end of the shutdown or prolong the 36-day spending impasse? Will Democrats be so emboldened that they want to continue the fight over Obamacare subsidies by keeping the government closed? Tuesday’s results guarantee that the progressive wing of the Senate Democratic Caucus will fight against any quick deal. More below.
In fact, the optics here for Senate Democrats who want to strike a deal aren’t good.
2) Trump has been on a crusade to eliminate the 60-vote legislative filibuster. Faced with the very real potential for losing GOP control of Congress next year, Trump is upping the pressure on the Senate Republicans to invoke the “nuclear option” and change Senate rules in order to pass legislation with a simple majority. We expect Trump to go even harder on this today in person.
3) Will Republicans see their political power slipping after Tuesday night? It’s completely possible that by this time next year, a lame duck session of Congress will be starting with Democrats ready to take charge of at least one chamber.
A word of caution. It’s important not to make too much of off-year elections. The GOP gubernatorial nominee in Virginia — Winsome Earle-Sears — was woefully underfunded and bad on the stump. New Jersey reverted to its blue dominance with no Trump on the ballot.
Yet here are some stats to help illustrate the Democrats’ dominance in those states:
— Spanberger nabbled a double-digit win. That hasn’t happened in a Virginia governor race since 2009. Democrats gained seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, strengthening their majority. Spanberger won Loudoun County by 29 points a year after former Vice President Kamala Harris won by just 17 points.
— Two heavily Latino counties in New Jersey that Trump won in 2024 swung back to the left. Sherrill flipped Passaic and Cumberland counties and improved Harris’ margin in Hudson County by a double-digit advantage. That’s an early sign for Democrats that Trump’s inroads with Latino voters may not last in the face of ICE’s national immigration raids. That has huge implications for the battle for the House.
California. Prop 50 was the most important election on Tuesday’s ballot in the battle for control of Congress. Let’s revisit what the state’s new map will look like.
With the proposition’s passage, GOP Reps. Doug LaMalfa and Kevin Kiley are drawn into blue districts. Republican Rep. Ken Calvert’s district disintegrated, and Democrats added a Latino-majority district in the Los Angeles area.
Republican Rep. Darrell Issa finds himself in a battleground district. GOP Rep. David Valadao’s seat gets a little better for Democrats.
The GOP’s footprint in the Golden State could be reduced to just four Republican incumbents. And it could leave three members — Issa, Calvert, and Rep. Young Kim — fighting over one Southern California seat.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Ami Bera announced he will run in the 3rd District, the new version of Kiley’s district. Bera will vacate the new 6th District, leaving it open.
Texas. Democrats Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards were on track to advance to a runoff in the special election to fill the state’s open 18th District. The late incumbent, Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), died in March.
