Happy Election Day. Here’s what we’re watching nationwide and how the results will affect Congress.
California redistricting. Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D) plan to redraw the state’s congressional maps to help Democrats pick up as many as five House seats, is on the ballot Tuesday.
This is the single-most important off-year campaign in the battle for control of Congress. But it’s also largely a fait accompli because Republicans all but ceded this race.
By the numbers: Democrats spent nearly $98 million on ads to boost Prop 50, per AdImpact. Republicans spent $38 million.
The affected Republicans: Reps. Doug LaMalfa, Kevin Kiley, David Valadao, Darrell Issa and Ken Calvert. Here’s how their districts could change:
– LaMalfa’s northern California district will shift from a seat President Donald Trump won by 25 points to one former Vice President Kamala Harris won by 12 points.
– Kiley’s Sacramento-area district shifts from a Trump +4 to a Harris +10.
– Valadao’s Central Valley seat moves from a Trump +6 to a Trump +2.
– Issa’s southern California seat moves from a Trump +15 to a Harris +3.
– Calvert’s Trump +6 Inland Empire district jumps to Los Angeles and becomes one Harris would have won by 14 points.
New Jersey governor. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) faces former state Rep. Jack Ciattarelli in what’s become a critical fight. Sherrill has drawn some criticism for being too rehearsed and cautious, but she’s still the front-runner here. Barely.
This race will be a big temperature check for New Jersey’s Latino population, which swung hard to the right in 2024. The margins in Latino-heavy areas will give an indication of how those voters feel about the first year of the Trump presidency.
Virginia governor. Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) is the favorite to defeat GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. We’ll be tracking the vote totals in purple seats represented by Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), Eugene Vindman (D-Va.) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.).
Democrats expect Trump’s targeting of the federal workforce will harm GOP candidates in Virginia. Tomorrow will be the first test of that theory.
New York mayor. With a big win, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani can inspire his party’s left flank. Many moderate Democrats are rallying around Andrew Cuomo, concerned Republicans will tie vulnerable incumbents to Mamdani’s left-wing beliefs. We should note Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer hasn’t endorsed yet.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court. Three justices on Pennsylvania’s highest court have a retention election today. The current court partisan split is five Democrats to two Republicans. All three judges on the ballot ran as Democrats.
Republicans see an opportunity to flip the balance of power on a court that could decide future redistricting cases.
Maine referendum. A ballot initiative that would restrict voting access in Maine has some Democrats worried. If the referendum passes, Democrats could be in a tougher position to unseat Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) next fall.
