Florida Democrats have some tough decisions to make.
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis released a proposed congressional map on Monday that aims to reduce Democrats’ footprint in the state to just four House districts. The Florida House delegation currently has eight Democrats and 20 Republicans.
DeSantis’ proposed map is going to lead to an uncomfortable game of musical chairs and some early retirements.
Democrats we spoke to Monday evening called the GOP-drawn map “illegal” and a violation of Florida’s ban on partisan gerrymandering. But some Democrats were more willing than others to imagine a life in the new 24R-4D reality.
Take Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), for instance. The two-term Democrat noted, “This is going to wind up in court,” but Moskowitz added, “I’m running for reelection. I’ll figure out what district I’m going to run in. I think there’s three districts I could choose from.”
DeSantis didn’t release partisan data with his proposed map. But Florida operatives and politicos scrambled to compile a rough sketch of what the new districts would look like.
The Tampa area was split into three districts, leaving Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor in a district that President Donald Trump won by roughly 10 points.
Castor told Florida Politics that she’d run for reelection no matter what the new map looks like.
In central Florida, only one blue district remained for Democratic Reps. Maxwell Frost and Darren Soto.
Soto indicated he thinks the map is “illegal” and said he wouldn’t abandon his current 9th District. If the new lines go into effect, Soto will face an uphill battle. Trump carried the district by roughly 18 points, according to early estimates.
South Florida scramble. South Florida is where things could get messy for Democrats.
Former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s resignation means there are four Democratic incumbents for three seats. If no one is willing to retire, there could very well be a member-on-member primary.
There’s a Democratic seat anchored in Palm Beach County, another in Broward County and a third that spans Miami-Dade and part of Broward. Reps. Frederica Wilson, Lois Frankel, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Moskowitz could run in these seats.
“What the governor put out is an absolutely unconstitutional gerrymander,” Wasserman Schultz said. “It’s going to be challenged, and we’ll see them in court.“
Dummymander? The new GOP-leaning 25th District stretches along the southern coast. Trump would have won that district by about nine points, per early data.
The new 22nd District, which spans much of south-central Florida, backed Trump by roughly the same amount.
Trump carried all the other GOP-held seats by 12 points or higher in 2024.
But the big question for Florida is whether the 2024 numbers will be predictive for 2026. If 2024 was a high-water mark for the GOP, Republicans will be at risk of a dummymander.
Democrats are insisting they will go on offense. The DCCC is out with a new video featuring House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries taunting Florida Republicans.
“We’re all hands on deck to stop this illegal and unconstitutional power grab in Florida,” Jeffries told us Monday evening.
