The midterm elections are just 196 days away. Today may be the most consequential day of this cycle as Virginia voters head to the polls.
Overall, Democrats are favored to win the House in November. And the Senate, which was once considered far out of reach, is moving closer into play.
But in the Trump era, nothing is predictable. The political fallout from the Iran war, the wobbly economy and soaring gas prices are dominating the headlines. All this is bad news for Republicans.
President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot. Yet, as it’s been for the last decade, the president is the biggest factor in what will happen this fall. Trump’s approval ratings are sinking, and with them, so are GOP hopes.
A record number of House Republicans have already announced they’re retiring or running for other offices. Democratic House and Senate incumbents and challengers are outraising their GOP opponents. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has described Trump’s poll numbers as an “extinction-level event” for Republicans. If the election were today, Jeffries would be right.
However, Trump is sitting on nearly $350 million in his MAGA Inc. super PAC, which he can direct anywhere he chooses. The president helped the NRCC raise $37 million at a dinner last month. Trump’s fundraising prowess is his superpower. He can help rain money on Republicans.
It’s also unclear how Trump will push the Justice Department or other agencies to play a role in the November races. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche has openly wondered, “Why is there an objection to sending ICE to polling stations?” DOJ is demanding that Michigan turn over hundreds of thousands of 2024 ballots from Wayne County, Mich. There just happens to be a high-profile Senate race in Michigan this year.
Eyes on Virginia. One thing is clear — today’s votes could have a momentous impact on this election cycle. Voters are heading to the polls in Virginia to decide whether Democrats can draw themselves four new seats in the commonwealth.
Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is watching Virginia closely. The Sunshine State is the last outstanding redistricting battleground. DeSantis can try to negate any Democratic win in Virginia, but he has to contend with Latino voters, who have been turning against the GOP in recent elections.
Today’s Virginia vote isn’t like California’s referendum last year when Democrats romped to a big win. This will likely be a close contest. Still, Democrats are favored to win thanks to a large spending advantage and backlash against Trump.
In fact, if today goes Democrats’ way, they could win the redistricting wars that Trump started last summer in Texas. Virginia GOP Reps. Jen Kiggans, John McGuire, Ben Cline, and Rob Wittman will face extremely difficult, if not impossible, reelections if the “Yes” campaign prevails.
Waiting in the wings. Meanwhile, several Democratic candidates are eager to run in the state’s newly drawn blue seats, including former Virginia First Lady Dorothy McAuliffe and ex-Reps. Tom Perriello and Elaine Luria.
It’s hard to overstate how big a moment this is for Jeffries in his bid to become the first Black speaker. A Jeffries-aligned nonprofit, House Majority Forward, has dumped $38 million on the referendum.
Overall, Democrats have spent $55.6 million on ads urging Virginians to amend the constitution and allow the legislature to gerrymander the congressional map. Republicans have shelled out $23.8 million. That’s a huge spending gap.
Republicans say they want to avoid nationalizing the race too much by getting heavily involved. Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson did a telerally Monday night, but the president has stayed away otherwise. If it’s a close result, Johnson and his allies will get criticism for not doing more.
However, if Democrats win in a blowout, this strategy looks smart.
Democrats were also targeted in their messaging. They’ve asserted that this was a temporary measure to counteract Trump. Republicans tried to cast it as a hypocritical power grab, using past comments disparaging gerrymandering by former President Barack Obama and Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger — both have endorsed the referendum.
Virginia voters just installed a bipartisan redistricting commission in 2020. Six years later, Democrats are asking voters to undo it. That’s a hard needle to thread and explains the heavy Democratic investment in the election.
VRA away. There’s one other wild card on redistricting — the Supreme Court.
The conservative bloc on the high court looks ready to strike down a Louisiana map that created a second Black-majority district in 2024, dealing a major blow to the 1965 Voting Rights Act in the process.
It’s uncertain when this ruling will come. Democrats and VRA supporters hope it comes late in the year and won’t affect the November elections. But like everything else in Washington these days, no one is quite sure when or if this will happen.
