Both parties are pouring money into a Tennessee special election for a deep red seat out of hope — or fear — that weird timing and turnout could lead to unpredictable results.
The contest pits Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn against Republican Army veteran Matt Van Epps in a district that stretches from Kentucky down to the Alabama border.
President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Van Epps, carried that district by 22 points in 2024. It should not even be competitive enough to warrant spending.
But the date of the election, Dec. 2, is just days after Thanksgiving. And thanks to the last redistricting in 2021, the seat now includes a chunk of the blue city of Nashville, which could open up a very narrow path for Democrats.
“I think there is a chance that if Republicans stay home, and Democrats come out in strong numbers, maybe they could get really lucky,” Rep. John Rose (R-Tenn.) said. “It’s purely a turnout thing.”
Most Republicans feel confident they will win the race. Their ad spending is to remind conservative voters that the election is going on and to keep the margin from being tight enough that Democrats can claim a convincing pyrrhic victory.
And Behn has significantly outraised Van Epps in the final stretch.
“It’s a Tuesday-after-Thanksgiving election,” NRCC Chair Richard Hudson said. “Most voters don’t have any idea there’s an election. Thank goodness Kamala Harris showed up because now all the Republicans know.”
The Kamala factor. Behn has worked hard to keep the race local. That got tougher last week.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris visited Nashville last Tuesday as part of her book tour, and she also attended a Tennessee Democratic Party event meant to get out the vote for the special election. Behn also went to the event, but the two never appeared together.
Republicans seized on the appearance of Harris, who only won 38% of the vote in the district in 2024. And even some Democrats were confused at the event.
“That was stupid,” said Rep. Steve Cohen, the lone Democrat in the state’s congressional delegation. “I don’t think it was a good idea.”
It would be better, Cohen said, “if they had someone from Tennessee come in or somebody moderate.”
On the airwaves. Van Epps and a constellation of Republican outside groups have spent $2.7 million on ads since he won the October primary, per AdImpact. That includes MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC.
The spots lean heavily on Behn’s days as an activist, using footage of her vowing to protect trans children and protesting ICE.
Behn and Democratic groups have spent $2 million on ads since the primary. House Majority PAC, a group with close ties to House Democratic leadership, just jumped into the contest.
HMP’s ad focuses on economic issues: “Van Epps wants three things: cuts to healthcare benefits, more tariffs driving up costs, tax breaks for billionaires. Aftyn Behn wants one thing: to lower your costs.”
Behn has slammed Republicans for Medicaid cuts that she says hurt rural Tennessee. She has also needled Republicans in ads over the Jeffrey Epstein files.
