An unexpectedly close Senate race in deep-red Nebraska recently set off alarm bells in the GOP — including a rare plea for help from a House member in the Cornhusker State.
Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) sent a message to some House Republicans last week warning that independent candidate Dan Osborn has made Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R-Neb.) reelection race shockingly tight. Smith even asked lawmakers to chip in money for Fischer’s race, according to a person familiar with the request.
The non-partisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted the contest from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” late last month as polls showed Osborn tied or beating Fischer.
Yet despite the hand-wringing over Fischer’s campaign strategy, there’s little fear that she’ll actually lose. Nebraska is a solidly red state, and former President Donald Trump’s margin of victory there in 2020 was 19 points. Fischer’s most recent push on the airwaves is also proving to be helpful.
This is news: Fischer is now leading Osborn, drawing 48% to Osborn’s 42%, according to a recent poll commissioned by Fischer’s campaign and obtained exclusively by Punchbowl News. Ten percent of those polled were undecided.
The survey, conducted Oct. 5-8, concludes that Fischer’s recent advertising “has clearly been effective.” The polling memo states that, with “proper funding,” the race will be “put to bed.”
Fischer’s campaign manager Derek Oden told us he expects the “positive trend to continue.”
“We still have work to do, and we’re running hard, but this is a good sign,” Oden said.
Still, the NRSC had to get involved in late September. Republicans privately griped that this shouldn’t have been necessary and it takes critical resources away from actual battlegrounds. GOP strategists attribute Fischer’s initially sluggish polling numbers to her campaign’s relatively late start on the airwaves.
Senate Minority Whip John Thune, who has traveled to Nebraska on Fischer’s behalf, told us at an event in Indiana Thursday night that “the votes are coming home” for Fischer but “it’s been a lot closer than people thought it would be.”
Cornhusker politics: Fischer’s campaign went up with an ad in late September portraying Osborn as a far-left progressive and noting that Fischer has Trump’s endorsement. Another ad released this week pans Osborn as a “Democrat in disguise.”
Republicans also believe Fischer will get a natural boost from Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R-Neb.) presence on the ballot. Ricketts served as governor for two terms and is a popular figure in the state.
It’s rare for both of a state’s senators to be on the ballot at the same time, but Ricketts’ race is a special election to fill the remaining two years of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s (R-Neb.) term.
Nebraska isn’t a typical red state. It allocates its electoral votes by congressional district, which means the state’s second congressional district — which encompasses the Omaha metropolitan area — is often in play for Democrats at the presidential level. And Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who represents that district, is in a difficult reelection fight.
