While we won’t know every House race result tonight, there are some key contests that could give early clues about which party will win the majority. Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the House.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Virginia — polls close at 7 p.m.: The open 7th District is a close contest between Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman. The winner of this seat, which is being vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), will give an early indication of where things are headed. The district is a top pickup opportunity for Republicans.
In the Virginia Beach-area 2nd District, GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans is facing a challenge from Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal. Polls show this race in a dead heat, but Kiggans is favored to win. If Democrats can flip the 2nd District, that would bode well for the party’s chances of taking the House.
Speaker Mike Johnson was in both of those districts on Monday.
North Carolina and Ohio — polls close at 7:30 p.m.: Republicans essentially need to flip Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s (D-Ohio) 9th District seat if they want to create a buffer against expected GOP losses elsewhere in the country. Former President Donald Trump won Kaptur’s district in 2020 and her GOP opponent, Derek Merrin, is hoping to ride Trump’s coattails to victory.
In North Carolina’s 1st District, Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is one of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents. He faces GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout. Johnson and NRCC Chair Richard Hudson both paid Buckhout a visit on Monday. Johnson said the “heart of the U.S. House majority, runs through North Carolina.” If you’re keeping track at home, Johnson has previously asserted that the heart of the majority also runs through New York and Pennsylvania. Reminder: it runs through everywhere.
Maine, Pennsylvania and Michigan — polls close at 8 p.m.: All eyes are on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s race in Maine’s 2nd District against Republican Austin Theriault. Republicans are counting on defeating Golden in a seat Trump won in 2020.
A similar situation is playing out in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, where Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright is trying to win again in a Trump district. He is facing Republican Rob Bresnahan. If both Golden and Cartwright survive, it would be a big blow to the GOP.
Democratic Rep. Susan Wild is facing a competitive challenge from Republican Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania’s 7th District.
Republican Rep. Scott Perry is in a tough race against TV anchor and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson in the Keystone State’s 10th District.
In Michigan, Republican Tom Barrett is seen as a flip opportunity in the 7th District. Democrats feel more confident about Kristen McDonald Rivet winning in the 8th District and it would be a surprise if Rep. John James (R-Mich.) lost his 10th District race.
New York, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska — polls close at 9 p.m.: There are a number of key races in New York, many of which are expected to be photo finishes.
In two GOP-held seats — Rep. Brandon Williams in the 22nd District and Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in the 4th — Democrats are favored to win. While races may not be called tonight, we’ll have a decent sense of where they stand in the early hours of Wednesday morning.
Republicans believe they still have a shot at keeping the House if they lose Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.). But their path becomes significantly harder if Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) also loses.
Keep an eye on vulnerable GOP Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.), Derrick Van Orden (Wis.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) and Zach Nunn (Iowa). Bacon is the most vulnerable, although polling has shown Miller-Meeks is in trouble, too.
