HAVERSTRAW, N.Y. — Heading into this election cycle, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) was expected to be one of the most endangered House Republicans not just in New York but the entire country.
Lawler won his Hudson Valley-area seat — which broke for President Joe Biden by 10 points — in an extremely close race in 2022. The freshman lawmaker has been continually outraised by his opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.). And House Democratic leaders have invested serious resources toward making this one of the most expensive races in the country.
But it hasn’t exactly panned out the way Democrats hoped.
By many accounts, Lawler has run a remarkably disciplined campaign. He’s built up a strong name ID in the district, cultivating a brand as a bipartisan player who’s occasionally willing to buck his own party. Lawler is leading in all the public polls despite this being a D+3 district.
“I feel very good about where we are with six days to go,” Lawler told us. “We’re winning.”
Even though Jones has a sizable cash advantage, Lawler has raked in $7.7 million as of Oct. 16, according to FEC filings, making him one of the top fundraisers among battleground House Republicans. Jones has raised $9 million.
The amount of money being spent here is staggering. Nearly $20 million has been poured into the district during the month of October alone, according to AdImpact data. Lawler’s campaign also hasn’t been completely perfect. The first-term Republican recently came under fire for wearing blackface in 2006 as a college student, which he apologized for.
House Republican leaders continue to make treks to the district. Speaker Mike Johnson will host a rally with Lawler here later today.
Yet in a sign of how the winds have shifted, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved his race from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.” A Working Families Party candidate on the ballot could also act as a spoiler, hurting Jones.
Policing in the spotlight: Lawler has been bolstered by Jones’ past rhetoric on law enforcement. During the height of the George Floyd protests in 2020, Jones expressed support for moving funding away from police departments, abolishing cash bail and ending qualified immunity for police officers.
Speaking at a candidate forum hosted by Rockland County cops, Lawler highlighted his work with Democratic Sheriff Louis Falco to support local law enforcement, while painting a contrast with Jones:
All candidates on the ballot were invited to the forum. Jones didn’t attend.
Lawler and the House GOP’s top super PAC have spent millions of dollars on ads tying Jones to the “defund the police” movement.
Democrats have sought to rebut that messaging. Jones cut an ad expressing support for law enforcement and saying Lawler is trying to “fool“ voters over “something dumb I said when I was younger.”
At a campaign event, Jones told us “those comments were made before I was ever elected to Congress. And when I was in Congress, I voted for record levels of police funding. I always voted to fund the police.”
Battle for the center: Both candidates have been vying to claim the moderate mantle. Lawler routinely touts his work across the aisle to pass a number of bipartisan bills.
“[Voters] expect us to do the job that we’re elected to do and work with whoever is in power,” Lawler said. “The fact that I’ve been praised by both Joe Biden and Donald Trump speaks to my ability to do that.”
Lawler also has taken some calculated risks to stand up to his own party. But not on every issue.
Asked about former President Donald Trump’s former chief of staff saying the ex-president once privately praised Adolf Hitler, Lawler responded: “Trump denies that. Obviously, Hitler is not someone who should ever be praised.”
Meanwhile, Jones has shied away from the progressive label, calling himself a “pragmatist” with “socially liberal policies.” Jones also has a compelling backstory as a Rockland native, Harvard Law School grad and openly gay Black man.
But a key part of Jones’ strategy, aside from focusing on abortion, has been tying Lawler to Trump. The palm card Jones passes out at campaign events features a picture of Lawler holding a Trump cake. The first issue listed on the flyer is that Jones voted to impeach Trump.
Jones also called out Lawler for recently attending Trump’s controversial Madison Square Garden rally that included a racist stand-up set from a comedian.
It’s a reflection of how the outcome of this race will largely be tied to the top of the ticket. Democrats are still confident Jones can prevail, although they concede it may depend on how Vice President Kamala Harris performs here.
