MILWAUKEE – Want to get a sense of how confident House Republicans are at the moment? NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) told us this week his party has a good chance of winning a newly-drawn, majority-Black district in Alabama.
Democrat Shomari Figures is running against Republican Caroleene Dobson in Alabama’s 2nd District, which is 51% Black and voted for President Joe Biden by 12 points in 2020. In the days after the new map was finalized, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter declared it “virtually guarantees a Democratic pickup.” No longer, Hudson claimed.
“They drew it for a Democrat, but they got a fairly weak Democrat,” Hudson said of Figures, a former White House aide and DOJ official. “Caroleene Dobson’s really impressive.”
“If only a few” of the district’s Black voters back Dobson, Hudson said, then Republicans can be competitive.
The race’s tight situation isn’t necessarily a shock to Punchbowl News readers, to be fair. “People need to know that this is a race. This is not a coronation,” Figures told us in a late May interview.
Dobson grew up on an Alabama cattle farm, attended Harvard and currently is a real estate attorney. Republicans we spoke to compared Dobson to Alabama’s GOP Sen. Katie Britt. But Dobson’s challenge of winning in a blue seat is much tougher than prevailing statewide in Alabama.
Figures is also an Alabama native with deep experience in politics and most recently worked as Attorney General Merrick Garland’s deputy chief of staff. What’s more, Figures comes from a prominent Alabama family.
His mother, Vivian Davis Figures, serves in the state Senate. And his late father, Michael Anthony Figures, is well-known for suing the Ku Klux Klan and served in the state Senate.
In the money game, Dobson outraised Figures by around $50,000 in Q2 and has a $170,000 cash-on-hand advantage.
Hudson told us on Tuesday that districts that voted for Biden by double digits in 2020 are in play. Of course, we’ve heard similar big promises from GOP campaign chiefs in past cycles that haven’t rang true come November.
Democrats, unsurprisingly, are skeptical of Hudson’s claims and think Dobson is ill-suited to the blue-leaning seat.
“Is anyone surprised Richard Hudson wants another abortion banning, Project 2025 loving, Freedom Caucus wannabe to join the GOP Conference?” DCCC spokesperson Justin Chermol said in a statement.
Chermol added the DCCC is confident Figures will win and “restore fair representation to his home district.”
