The FY2026 government-funding deadline is just 83 days away. So far, it’s not going well at all and talk of a shutdown is rampant in both parties.
And before you accuse us of getting ahead of ourselves, the House has just 22 more days in session before the Sept. 30 funding deadline. The Senate is set to leave at the end of this month and won’t return until Sept. 1.
So what we’re going to do this morning is explain why we think there will be a shutdown, and then – alternatively – why it won’t happen. This is based on conversations with nearly a dozen top lawmakers and aides.
The backdrop. Here’s the scary reality: No one has any idea yet how Congress is going to avert a shutdown come Sept. 30.
There’s virtually no chance the House and Senate are going to pass all 12 appropriations bills between now and the end of September. It’s not even clear that GOP appropriators can get them all out of their respective committees by then. At least one continuing resolution is needed, maybe multiple CRs.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer caught hell from the Democratic base when he helped Republicans keep federal agencies open in March by passing a long-term CR, a decision that will come back into play later this year.
GOP leaders can’t avert a shutdown without the help of Democrats. Yet so far, the White House is demanding tens of billions of dollars in spending cuts that Democrats oppose.
Republicans also jammed through $325 billion in new Pentagon and border security funding on a party-line vote as part of the OBBB. And the White House and GOP leaders are pushing a $9 billion rescissions package as well.
Just one FY2026 spending bill has passed the House so far – MilCon-VA. The House Appropriations Committee has marked up four other bills: Legislative Branch, Homeland Security, Defense and Agriculture. The panel is lagging behind its own schedule, however, and there’s no guarantee that House Republicans can pass some of the tough bills on the floor, like Labor-HHS.
The Senate Appropriations Committee hasn’t passed a single bill, although three bills are scheduled for markup this week — Commerce-Justice-Science, Ag and Legislative Branch. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrat, don’t have a deal on a topline FY2026 number. Collins isn’t saying much on her plans past this week.
We spoke to Speaker Mike Johnson about how he views the government funding state of play. Johnson sounded a bit tentative about the outlook:
“We want to appropriate at lower levels. We just have to determine what those levels are exactly. …
“We’re trying to get as close to [the Trump budget’s funding levels] as we can without upsetting the apple cart. You know how this works. So there’s a lot of discussion and negotiation that’s been going on, but it’ll be in earnest now after the Big Beautiful Bill.”
Why the government is definitely shutting down. The “skinny budget” from the White House calls for $163 billion in cuts to non-defense discretionary spending while adding defense and border money. This comes on top of the rescissions package, which Schumer has warned would poison the chances of any bipartisan spending deal.
OMB Director Russ Vought is threatening more “pocket rescissions,” and Johnson is talking about more reconciliation bills.
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, called it “an absurd and opaque process” during a recent markup. DeLauro hates shutdowns, but even she’s very frustrated with what’s happening.
And have you listened at all to the Democratic base since President Donald Trump won? New York City Democrats just picked a socialist for the mayoral candidate. Members and senators are personally confronting Trump officials over immigration raids and getting arrested – or just knocked down.
There was even a Trump impeachment vote in the House already (it failed badly). Democrats want more, not less, challenges to Trump’s growing power, especially since Hill Republicans are doing little to defend the institution.
So what about this toxic political climate makes it likely that Democrats will be eager to work with Republicans to keep the government funded?
Let’s say Johnson could get a funding bill – most likely a CR – through the House with Republicans only (thanks to Trump). Senate Majority Leader John Thune would still need at least seven Democrats – maybe more – to get it through the Senate.
Now let’s return to the March CR fight. Schumer came under sharp criticism from other Democrats, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Murray, for backing the CR after suggesting he wouldn’t.
Why would Schumer cave again, even if he wanted to? What kinds of policies could Democrats even ask for that Trump and Hill Republicans would agree to? From our vantage point, the list is short.
Why Congress will Congress again – and avoid a shutdown. If Congress is good at anything, it’s taking things to the brink, staring disaster in the eye, and then folding.
Truth be told, a shutdown would hurt Democrats way more than it would hurt Republicans. Trump and Vought could make all federal workers come into work and just not pay them. This would be especially demoralizing to a federal workforce still reeling from DOGE layoffs. And never forget that the longest (partial) shutdown in history occurred during Trump’s first term. He’s not averse to them at all.
Democrats are also the anti-shutdown party. They’ve railed against them for years, arguing they are counterproductive, waste a lot of money and no one wins. All of which is true.
If Republicans are truly OK with a clean CR — and some GOP sources told us they are — it may put some Democrats in a bind. Democrats would have to vote against a CR and for a shutdown.
Also, can this group of Democrats even win a shutdown against Trump? No one plays this game better than Trump, who will have the full backing of Fox News and conservative outlets in any political fight.
