President Donald Trump has orchestrated a dramatic shake-up of U.S. foreign policy in his short time in office — one that has exacerbated an already deep divide within the GOP over national security.
The most significant and obvious shift has been on Russia and Ukraine. We expect this to be a major focus of Trump’s speech. There’s also the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas which appears to be crumbling. And while it hasn’t been a major focal point yet, Trump is sure to delve into China and the Indo-Pacific.
Russia-Ukraine. Trump’s Oval Office blowup with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was a setback because it prevented the signing of a critical minerals deal that the administration had hailed as a major step toward a potential peace deal.
But Trump’s allies were cheering the president afterward, saying it shows he’ll put America’s interests first.
It will be interesting to see which of these themes Trump leans into more. Will he continue to play to the base by attacking Zelensky? Or will he express a desire to repair the relationship and get a deal?
Israel. The first phase of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiated in part by Trump’s team ended on Sunday, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government asked that it be extended by another six weeks.
The Israeli government later imposed a pause on all humanitarian aid into Gaza, presumably as a way to exert leverage to extend the first phase of the increasingly fragile ceasefire.
Trump has stood steadfastly by Netanyahu and his government and has sought to facilitate the release of hostages from Hamas’ captivity. The latter will be a bipartisan message at the joint address, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer expected to bring as guests the parents of two Israelis who were killed on Oct. 7.
China. Trump has focused very little on China — at least publicly — since he came into office, but lawmakers in both parties will want to hear the president talk about it as the long-term pacing threat.
While Congress has been focused on the military threats emanating from Beijing, Trump and his team have sought to use tariffs to change China’s behavior.
Trump signaled this week that existing tariffs on Chinese exports will be hiked by 10%. Meanwhile, there were reports that the Chinese government was looking at imposing retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. agricultural products.
