News: California Democrats are charging ahead with an ambitious and potentially expensive plan to squeeze between five and seven more Democratic seats out of their congressional map.
The goal: To offset the Republican redistricting in Texas — and potentially elsewhere — and win the House majority next year.
“We’re ready,” Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) said. “If Texas goes, we are going.”
The California Democratic congressional delegation huddled Wednesday afternoon with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), the chair of the delegation, hosted the meeting with Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar.
California Democrats were overwhelmingly on board with drawing a new map, but members want input in how the lines are drawn.
California’s current partisan split is 43 Democrats to nine Republicans. Some California Democrats have indicated they’re willing to run in more competitive districts in order to reach the goal of gaining a half dozen more blue seats. Although we’ll see what happens if and when there are new maps.
We can’t overstate the significance of these looming redistricting wars and the potential they have to transform the midterms.
House Republicans, clinging to the slimmest of majorities, are trying to insulate themselves from a challenging political landscape in 2026 with new maps. Texas Republicans are in the midst of a White House-driven push to knock five Democrats out of their districts. Democrats say they’re ready to fight back.
“We’re obviously very sensitive to what’s happening in Texas and the continued consolidation of power that House Republicans are looking at,” Aguilar told us. “Our belief is we need to have every option available to us.”
The road ahead. This is a brazen political gamble, exactly the kind of ploy that the Democratic Party base has been demanding. Yet it’ll be extremely hard to pull off for a few reasons.
The biggest roadblock is that the California voters approved a constitutional amendment that handed authority over redistricting to an independent commission ahead of the 2011 remap. Proposition 20 was adopted by an overwhelming margin, and it has generally made House races in California more competitive.
But California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom sees two ways to overcome it.
The first: Newsom can call a special session. The legislature would put a proposition on the ballot that would “pause” the commission or rescind its redistricting power. California voters would have to approve this in a special election. They might not.
Democrats believe voters would back their proposal if they frame it as the key to thwarting what they see as a congressional power grab by President Donald Trump. Democrats would need to go on the airwaves to message the issue, and this would be extremely expensive. Republicans will try to fight this dramatic redraw of the map, of course.
One idea we’ve heard is to have the proposition worded so that the independent redistricting commission would return if other states — like Texas and Florida — institute commissions of their own. Another proposal is to include a sweetener in the proposition to convince GOP voters to back it, such as a voter ID law.
The second: This path is less likely because it is more complicated and legally murky. The California legislature would embark on redrawing districts under the theory that it is permitted because the state’s constitution is silent on mid-decade redistricting. And if the California constitution doesn’t address that scenario, then Democrats could do the mid-decade redraw without the commission.
This strategy would depend on surviving a legal challenge. Newsom called it “a novel legal question.” It’s a risky tactic, but could be done more expediently than a ballot initiative.
The map. California Democrats we talked to believe that they could reduce the GOP footprint in their state to two or, most likely, three seats. That means that some Republican incumbents would be drawn out of their seats. It also means some Democrats may have to run in tougher seats and represent new territory.
“I’ve run in some of the most competitive districts in the country, so I’d be fine if it helps us get the majority,” Rep. Ami Bera (D-Calif.) said.
The Democratic gains will likely depend on whether or not the mapmakers honor the Voting Rights Act and leave certain districts with majority Latino populations.
Keeping those Latino seats intact will blunt pickup opportunities. For example, Democrats could knock off GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in Riverside County but would probably need to leave GOP Rep. Young Kim’s Orange County district as a Republican vote sink to shore up the surrounding Democratic members. A new map could oust Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley by drawing his district to include blue areas in and around Sacramento.
Seats held by GOP Reps. David Valadao, in the Central Valley, and Darrell Issa, in San Diego County, could probably get better for Democrats but these wouldn’t be slam dunks. Democrats could be looking at a pickup of two to four seats.
But if Democrats disregard the Voting Rights Act — a scenario that exposes them to even more lawsuits — that opens up possibilities. Democratic members such as Reps. Lou Correa and Juan Vargas could share some of their left-leaning voters and create a ripple effect across the map.
This map could reduce the GOP delegation to just three members, targeting Kiley, Calvert, Issa, Kim, Valadao and maybe even Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) to the north.
“We want our gavels back,” said Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), who would be in line to chair the House Veterans Affairs Committee. “That’s what this is about.”
